PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Marquette faces Northern Illinois on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model declaring Marquette the clear favourite thanks to a 99% win probability that reflects their 2-1 record, 80.3 points per game and only 53.0 points allowed, while Northern Illinois sits at 2-2, 81.2 points per game and 75.5 allowed. Marquette has been dominant at home, unbeaten in 2 games with 85.5 points per game and 37.5 allowed, and their last five games include a 93-32 win over Detroit and a 78-43 win over Mercyhurst, whereas Northern Illinois has struggled on the road, winning only one of three road games and allowing 86.3 points per game. In the two meetings between the teams, Marquette has won both, most recently 92-70 in 2023. Pythia projects a 89-61 score, a total of 149.8, and gives Marquette a 99% chance to win and a 1% chance for Northern Illinois; the home team is heavily favoured to cover the line with a 99% probability, and the over is unlikely at 1%. The game is expected to finish in regulation, with no overtime projected.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 80.3 | 53.0 | 133.3 | +27.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 85.5 | 37.5 | 123.0 | +48.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 70.0 | 84.0 | 154.0 | -14.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.9 | 66.0 | 141.9 | +9.9 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.2 | 62.0 | 141.2 | +17.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 68.9 | 77.6 | 146.5 | -8.7 | 8% |
| vs Similar (15) | 76.7 | 74.7 | 151.4 | +1.9 | 53% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 80.3 | 53.0 | 133.3 | +27.3 | 67% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 81.2 | 75.5 | 156.8 | +5.8 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 82.0 | 43.0 | 125.0 | +39.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 81.0 | 86.3 | 167.3 | -5.3 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 70.6 | 80.0 | 150.6 | -9.4 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.0 | 79.2 | 155.2 | -3.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (23) | 63.6 | 79.9 | 143.5 | -16.3 | 13% |
| vs Similar (4) | 79.2 | 68.5 | 147.8 | +10.8 | 100% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 99.5 | 76.5 | 176.0 | +23.0 | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.2 | 35.1 | 70.2 | +0.1 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 36.2 | 32.9 | 69.1 | +3.4 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 33.8 | 37.9 | 71.7 | -4.2 | 31% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.6 | 32.6 | 66.2 | +1.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.0 | 28.2 | 63.2 | +6.8 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 33.6 | 38.3 | 71.9 | -4.8 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 36.5 | 34.9 | 71.5 | +1.6 | 53% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 34.7 | 22.7 | 57.3 | +12.0 | 67% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.9 | 38.3 | 70.3 | -6.4 | 23% | - |
| Last 30 at home (12) | 32.0 | 37.5 | 69.5 | -5.5 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 away (18) | 31.9 | 38.9 | 70.8 | -7.0 | 17% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.0 | 39.4 | 70.4 | -8.4 | 20% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.6 | 39.8 | 73.4 | -6.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (23) | 29.3 | 40.2 | 69.6 | -10.9 | 9% | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 38.0 | 33.2 | 71.2 | +4.8 | 75% | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 47.5 | 34.0 | 81.5 | +13.5 | 50% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 07/11/23 | Marquette v Northern Illinois | 92-70 |
| 28/11/21 | Marquette v Northern Illinois | 80-66 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Michigan | 70-84 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Detroit | 93-32 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Mercyhurst Lakers | 78-43 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Xavier | 87-89 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Uconn | 68-62 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Providence | 78-56 |
| 01/03/26 | H | DePaul | 51-62 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Georgetown | 76-60 |
| 19/02/26 | H | St. John's (N.Y.) | 70-76 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Xavier | 88-96 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Clarke | 82-43 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Dayton | 81-76 OT |
| 06/11/26 | A | Tulsa | 75-94 |
| 02/11/26 | A | Grambling St. | 87-89 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Akron | 55-94 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Kent State | 76-102 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Ball State | 43-79 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Toledo | 69-79 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Ohio | 66-74 |
| 17/02/26 | A | Buffalo | 72-70 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWL | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 80.3 | 85.5 | 70.0 |
| Allowed / game | 53.0 | 37.5 | 84.0 |
| Point differential | +27.3 | +48.0 | -14.0 |
| Avg total | 133.3 | 123.0 | 154.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWW | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLW | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 33% |
| Points / game | 81.2 | 82.0 | 81.0 |
| Allowed / game | 75.5 | 43.0 | 86.3 |
| Point differential | +5.8 | +39.0 | -5.3 |
| Avg total | 156.8 | 125.0 | 167.3 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | - | 50% (2) |
| Overtime % | 25% | 0% | 33% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xavier | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 53.3 | +37.7 |
| 2 |  Uconn | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 54.7 | +30.0 |
| 3 |  St. John's (N.Y.) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 62.3 | +28.3 |
| 4 |  DePaul | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 80.3 | 61.7 | +18.7 |
| 5 |  Seton Hall | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 67.0 | 54.7 | +12.3 |
| 6 |  Georgetown | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 72.0 | +11.5 |
| 7 | Marquette | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.3 | 53.0 | +27.3 |
| 8 |  Butler | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.0 | 75.0 | +17.0 |
| 9 |  Villanova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.3 | 66.3 | +16.0 |
| 10 |  Providence | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.0 | 59.3 | +13.7 |
| 11 |  Creighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.3 | 68.3 | +12.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Akron | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 93.5 | 62.5 | +31.0 |
| 2 |  Central Michigan | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 68.7 | +20.3 |
| 3 |  Bowling Green | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 76.0 | +10.3 |
| 4 |  Ohio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 73.5 | +9.5 |
| 5 |  Miami (Ohio) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 75.0 | +8.0 |
| 6 |  Western Michigan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.0 | 60.8 | +18.2 |
| 7 |  Eastern Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 8 |  UMass | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 66.0 | 64.3 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.2 | 75.5 | +5.8 |
| 10 |  Kent State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.3 | 75.3 | +8.0 |
| 11 |  Ball State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.0 | 66.7 | +3.3 |
| 12 |  Buffalo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 79.0 | -1.3 |
| 13 |  Toledo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 70.0 | 78.5 | -8.5 |
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