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Melbourne Tigers vs NW Tasmania Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Jun 2025
Tip-off: 09:00
Final 98-83
25-20 20-20 21-16 32-27
Position#4
Record9-6
FormLWWLW
Points / game87.1
Allowed / game80.2
vs
Position#18
Record5-10
FormLLLWW
Points / game87.1
Allowed / game88.3
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Melbourne Tigers v NW Tasmania
28 Jun 2025
MELB98
NW T83
19 Jun 2022
MELB69
NW T76
11 Jul 2021
MELB96
NW T100
13 May 2017
MELB65
NW T107
25 Jun 2016
MELB79
NW T87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne Tigers winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
NW Tasmania winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne TigersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#6
L
85-87
85
87
-2
A04/05
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
103-78
103
78
+25
A10/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
69-89
69
89
-20
H11/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
100-78
100
78
+22
A17/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
83-81 OT
83
81
+2
A24/05
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
86-89
86
89
-3
A31/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
101-74
101
74
+27
H06/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
85-78
85
78
+7
A14/06
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
79-91
79
91
-12
H15/06
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
W
95-84
95
84
+11
A20/06
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-22
25-19
18-21
25-25
24-24
22-16
29-12
28-26
19-30
11-21
16-24
23-14
35-18
23-23
24-23
18-14
15-18
25-14
13-15
16-22
30-26
16-24
20-24
20-15
24-22
29-17
21-16
27-19
22-16
17-19
24-22
22-21
31-22
15-27
22-22
11-20
16-24
25-19
40-19
14-22
171.5Avg total
88.6Scored
82.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)87.180.2167.3+6.960%
Season at home (7)84.480.9165.3+3.643%
Season away (8)89.479.6169.0+9.875%
Last 10 (10)88.682.9171.5+5.760%
Last 5 (5)89.283.2172.4+6.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)81.181.8162.9-0.756%
vs Similar (13)76.281.0157.2-4.831%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)89.276.5165.8+12.888%
This opponent (NW Tasmania) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NW TasmaniaAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
98-53
98
53
+45
H26/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
90-91
90
91
-1
A03/05
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
L
78-81
78
81
-3
A04/05
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
L
71-84
71
84
-13
H10/05
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
89-90
89
90
-1
H17/05
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
87-107
87
107
-20
H24/05
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
85-96
85
96
-11
A30/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
82-102
82
102
-20
A14/06
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
97-85
97
85
+12
A15/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
97-86
97
86
+11
H21/06
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-13
24-19
22-8
30-13
29-26
19-15
21-24
21-26
18-25
12-22
21-14
27-20
13-29
20-19
17-11
21-25
29-26
19-21
21-24
20-19
13-31
23-21
23-28
28-27
25-27
27-23
10-23
23-23
16-26
24-27
18-26
24-23
30-16
19-21
22-22
26-26
20-20
28-12
23-24
26-30
174.9Avg total
87.4Scored
87.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)87.188.3175.4-1.133%
Season at home (8)87.185.5172.6+1.638%
Season away (7)87.191.4178.6-4.329%
Last 10 (10)87.487.5174.9-0.130%
Last 5 (5)89.695.2184.8-5.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)82.191.6173.6-9.521%
vs Similar (10)87.381.8169.1+5.560%
vs Weaker (1)90.081.0171.0+9.0100%
This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q1: -2.4-2.4Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: +2.9+2.9Q3: -0.6-0.6Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +1.4+1.4
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q1: -2.4-2.4Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: +2.9+2.9Q3: -0.6-0.6Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +1.4+1.4
Melbourne TigersNW Tasmania
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne TigersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#6
W
42-41
42
41
+1
A04/05
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A10/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
30-51
30
51
-21
H11/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
58-41
58
41
+17
A17/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A24/05
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
46-50
46
50
-4
A31/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H06/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A14/06
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H15/06
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A20/06
NBL1 South
86.2Avg total
44.1Scored
42.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.241.383.5+0.947%-
Last 30 at home (13)42.743.586.2-0.823%-
Last 30 away (17)41.939.681.5+2.265%-
Last 10 (10)44.142.186.2+2.060%-
Last 5 (5)45.043.288.2+1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)40.941.482.3-0.644%-
vs Similar (13)41.340.782.0+0.646%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)45.242.187.4+3.150%-
This opponent (NW Tasmania) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NW TasmaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H26/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
W
48-41
48
41
+7
A03/05
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
L
30-47
30
47
-17
A04/05
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
L
33-48
33
48
-15
H10/05
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
48-47
48
47
+1
H17/05
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
36-52
36
52
-16
H24/05
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
52-50
52
50
+2
A30/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
40-53
40
53
-13
A14/06
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
49-37
49
37
+12
A15/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H21/06
NBL1 South
86.9Avg total
43.0Scored
43.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.045.187.1-3.137%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.943.587.4+0.457%-
Last 30 away (16)40.446.586.9-6.119%-
Last 10 (10)43.043.986.9-0.960%-
Last 5 (5)45.044.889.8+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)41.946.688.5-4.737%-
vs Similar (10)42.142.484.5-0.340%-
vs Weaker (1)44.044.088.0+0.00%-
This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Melbourne Tigers wins
5
NW Tasmania wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/06/25AMt Gambier95-84
15/06/25HHobart Chargers79-91
14/06/25AKnox85-78
06/06/25HKeilor Thunder101-74
31/05/25AGeelong86-89
24/05/25ACasey Cavaliers83-81 OT
17/05/25ABendigo Braves100-78
11/05/25HFrankston69-89
10/05/25ABallarat103-78
04/05/25AEltham85-87
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/06/25HKnox97-86
15/06/25AGeelong97-85
14/06/25ACasey Cavaliers82-102
30/05/25AHobart Chargers85-96
24/05/25HRingwood87-107
17/05/25HEltham89-90
10/05/25HNunawading71-84
04/05/25ABallarat78-81
03/05/25AFrankston90-91
26/04/25HKeilor Thunder98-53

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne Tigers
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW60%
HomeWLLWL43%
AwayWWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1578
Win %60%43%75%
Points / game87.184.489.4
Allowed / game80.280.979.6
Point differential+6.9+3.6+9.8
Avg total167.3165.3169.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%29%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (1)33% (3)
Overtime %7%0%12%
NW Tasmania
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW33%
HomeWLLLW38%
AwayLLLLW29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1587
Win %33%38%29%
Points / game87.187.187.1
Allowed / game88.385.591.4
Point differential-1.1+1.6-4.3
Avg total175.4172.6178.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%25%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)33% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox1714382%92.481.8+10.6
2 Mt Gambier1711665%96.685.7+10.9
3 Melbourne Tigers159660%87.180.2+6.9
4 Casey Cavaliers159660%89.585.0+4.5
5 Hobart Chargers159660%87.083.1+3.9
6 Ballarat159660%87.192.3-5.2
7 Sandringham Sabres158753%90.890.8+0.0
8 Nunawading158753%86.286.4-0.2
9 Kilsyth179853%86.685.9+0.7
10 Ringwood168850%95.989.9+5.9
11 Frankston168850%91.687.6+4.1
12 Waverley168850%92.894.7-1.9
13 Bendigo Braves178947%85.994.0-8.1
14 Eltham157847%85.587.5-1.9
15 Keilor Thunder156940%81.788.7-7.0
16 Geelong1661038%83.389.1-5.8
17 NW Tasmania1551033%87.188.3-1.1
18 Diamond Valley1641225%84.494.9-10.4
19 Dandenong1531220%88.996.1-7.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Melbourne Tigers2520213298
NW Tasmania2020162783
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