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Michigan vs Toledo Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 30 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Scheduled
Position#163
Record2-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game74.3
vs
Position#262
Record2-3
FormWLLLW
Points / game73.0
Allowed / game77.2
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Michigan v Toledo
30 Dec 2026
MICH v TOLE
upcoming
14 Mar 2023
MICH90
TOLE80
09 Dec 2020
MICH91
TOLE71
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Toledo win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MichiganUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Purdue
#31
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
101-80
101
80
+21
H19/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
95-72
95
72
+23
H21/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
W
90-77
90
77
+13
H27/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
95-62
95
62
+33
H29/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
91-73
91
73
+18
A05/04
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
69-63
69
63
+6
H07/04
NCAA
Oakland
#344
W
84-68
84
68
+16
H02/11
NCAA
Uconn
#30
L
77-85
77
85
-8
H07/11
NCAA
Marquette
#146
W
84-70
84
70
+14
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-38
34-42
50-46
51-34
48-39
47-33
47-49
43-28
48-26
47-36
48-32
43-41
33-29
36-34
47-36
37-32
30-43
47-42
35-27
49-43
158.8Avg total
85.8Scored
73.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)81.774.3156.0+7.367%
Season at home (3)81.774.3156.0+7.367%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)85.873.0158.8+12.880%
Last 5 (5)81.071.8152.8+9.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)80.577.5158.0+3.050%
vs Similar (4)83.270.8154.0+12.575%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)82.870.9153.7+11.992%
This opponent (Toledo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Algeciras
#13
W
100-79
100
79
+21
H18/10
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
L
81-90
81
90
-9
A25/10
Segunda FEB
Jaen Paraiso
#21
W
93-81
93
81
+12
H01/11
Segunda FEB
Arkansas State
#228
L
70-71
70
71
-1
A03/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#28
L
61-91
61
91
-30
A06/11
NCAA
Marshall
#301
W
81-76
81
76
+5
A07/11
NCAA
Spanish Basketball Academy
#20
L
77-85
77
85
-8
A08/11
Segunda FEB
Wright State
#41
L
68-76
68
76
-8
H11/11
NCAA
CBC Valladolid
#6
L
80-88
80
88
-8
H14/11
Segunda FEB
Detroit
#453
W
85-72
85
72
+13
A14/11
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-15
19-25
25-22
30-17
22-18
21-28
13-17
25-27
23-22
30-20
15-17
25-22
0-0
35-36
0-0
35-35
0-0
25-48
0-0
36-43
0-0
27-38
0-0
54-38
15-14
23-27
18-19
21-25
0-0
31-36
0-0
37-40
21-26
26-17
19-21
14-24
0-0
42-40
0-0
43-32
160.5Avg total
79.6Scored
80.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)73.077.2150.2-4.240%
Season at home (1)68.076.0144.0-8.00%
Season away (4)74.277.5151.8-3.250%
Last 10 (10)79.680.9160.5-1.340%
Last 5 (5)78.279.4157.6-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)72.179.3151.4-7.220%
vs Similar (12)81.876.1157.8+5.767%
vs Weaker (8)78.571.4149.9+7.175%
This opponent (Michigan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +5.9+5.91st half: -2.4-2.42nd half2nd half: +6.9+6.92nd half: +1.1+1.1
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +5.9+5.91st half: -2.4-2.42nd half2nd half: +6.9+6.92nd half: +1.1+1.1
MichiganToledo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
MichiganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Purdue
#31
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
50-46
50
46
+4
H19/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H21/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H27/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
48-26
48
26
+22
H29/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
48-32
48
32
+16
A05/04
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H07/04
NCAA
Oakland
#344
W
47-36
47
36
+11
H02/11
NCAA
Uconn
#30
L
30-43
30
43
-13
H07/11
NCAA
Marquette
#146
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H12/11
NCAA
78.9Avg total
42.4Scored
36.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.334.674.9+5.770%-
Last 30 at home (19)40.635.476.1+5.274%-
Last 30 away (11)39.733.373.0+6.564%-
Last 10 (10)42.436.578.9+5.970%-
Last 5 (5)38.633.472.0+5.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)32.535.067.5-2.550%-
vs Similar (4)41.834.276.0+7.575%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)40.734.775.4+6.071%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Algeciras
#13
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H18/10
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A25/10
Segunda FEB
Jaen Paraiso
#21
W
53-42
53
42
+11
H01/11
Segunda FEB
Arkansas State
#228
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A03/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#28
L
25-48
25
48
-23
A06/11
NCAA
Marshall
#301
L
27-38
27
38
-11
A07/11
NCAA
Spanish Basketball Academy
#20
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A08/11
Segunda FEB
Wright State
#41
L
31-36
31
36
-5
H11/11
NCAA
CBC Valladolid
#6
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H14/11
Segunda FEB
Detroit
#453
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A14/11
NCAA
79.6Avg total
38.6Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.136.474.6+1.753%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.135.976.1+4.273%-
Last 30 away (15)36.136.973.1-0.833%-
Last 10 (10)38.641.079.6-2.440%-
Last 5 (5)37.039.676.6-2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)34.838.072.8-3.220%-
vs Similar (12)40.036.776.7+3.375%-
vs Weaker (8)39.534.173.6+5.462%-
This opponent (Michigan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Michigan wins
0
Toledo wins
DateGameScore
14/03/23Michigan v Toledo90-80
09/12/20Michigan v Toledo91-71
Michiganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMarquette84-70
07/11/26HUconn77-85
02/11/26HOakland84-68
07/04/26HUconn69-63
05/04/26AArizona91-73
29/03/26HTennessee95-62
27/03/26HAlabama90-77
21/03/26HSt. Louis Billikens95-72
19/03/26HHoward101-80
15/03/26HPurdue72-80
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ADetroit85-72
14/11/26HCBC Valladolid80-88
11/11/26HWright State68-76
08/11/26ASpanish Basketball Academy77-85
07/11/26AMarshall81-76
06/11/26AMichigan State61-91
03/11/26AArkansas State70-71
01/11/26HJaen Paraiso93-81
25/10/26AMoron81-90
18/10/26HAlgeciras100-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWLW67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game81.781.7-
Allowed / game74.374.3-
Point differential+7.3+7.3-
Avg total156.0156.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%67%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Toledo
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW40%
HomeL0%
AwayLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games514
Win %40%0%50%
Points / game73.068.074.2
Allowed / game77.276.077.5
Point differential-4.2-8.0-3.2
Avg total150.2144.0151.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron330100%84.062.7+21.3
2 Central Michigan440100%83.865.8+18.0
3 Bowling Green330100%86.376.0+10.3
4 Miami (Ohio)330100%84.076.0+8.0
5 Western Michigan43175%79.060.8+18.2
6 Eastern Michigan32167%77.363.3+14.0
7 UMass32167%66.064.3+1.7
8 Ohio32167%76.075.7+0.3
9 Northern Illinois53260%79.473.2+6.2
10 Toledo52340%73.077.2-4.2
11 Kent State31233%83.375.3+8.0
12 Buffalo31233%77.779.0-1.3
13 Ball State41325%68.872.5-3.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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