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Mount St. Mary's vs Fairfield Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 16 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#295
Record1-2
FormWLLWL
Points / game60.7
Allowed / game78.7
vs
Position#245
Record2-2
FormLLWLW
Points / game60.0
Allowed / game71.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Mount St. Mary's v Fairfield
16 Jan 2027
MOUN v FAIR
upcoming
08 Dec 2024
MOUN101
FAIR94
09 Mar 2024
MOUN92
FAIR96
26 Jan 2023
MOUN60
FAIR63
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mount St. Mary's win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Fairfield win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mount St. Mary'sUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
W
83-76
83
76
+7
A08/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
65-55
65
55
+10
A14/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
76-63
76
63
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
68-47
68
47
+21
H22/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A28/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
69-47
69
47
+22
A01/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
58-63
58
63
-5
A08/03
NCAA
Xavier
#8
L
52-97
52
97
-45
A03/11
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#335
W
68-57
68
57
+11
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#45
L
62-82
62
82
-20
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-34
44-42
28-21
37-34
31-31
45-32
20-24
48-23
32-31
37-46
39-25
30-22
21-35
37-28
16-51
36-46
29-22
39-35
30-42
32-40
133.4Avg total
67.0Scored
66.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)60.778.7139.3-18.033%
Season at home (1)68.057.0125.0+11.0100%
Season away (2)57.089.5146.5-32.50%
Last 10 (10)67.066.4133.4+0.660%
Last 5 (5)61.869.2131.0-7.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)63.274.3137.5-11.127%
vs Similar (8)72.274.4146.6-2.150%
vs Weaker (7)71.356.3127.6+15.0100%
This opponent (Fairfield) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
FairfieldUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Quinnipiac
#123
W
85-79
85
79
+6
A22/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
72-58
72
58
+14
H28/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
47-69
47
69
-22
H01/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
W
71-60
71
60
+11
H06/03
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
W
74-55
74
55
+19
A07/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A09/03
NCAA
Vermont
#193
L
67-79
67
79
-12
H06/11
NCAA
Bryant University
#340
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A08/11
NCAA
Wisconsin
#50
L
42-89
42
89
-47
A11/11
NCAA
NJIT
#345
W
63-60
63
60
+3
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-36
46-43
37-23
35-35
25-39
22-30
31-27
40-33
30-30
44-25
30-40
31-36
25-38
42-41
26-30
42-29
20-52
22-37
30-32
33-28
133.4Avg total
65.0Scored
68.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)60.071.8131.8-11.850%
Season at home (2)65.069.5134.5-4.550%
Season away (2)55.074.0129.0-19.050%
Last 10 (10)65.068.4133.4-3.460%
Last 5 (5)60.272.6132.8-12.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)54.584.0138.5-29.50%
vs Similar (15)70.970.5141.4+0.353%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)76.267.1143.3+9.277%
This opponent (Mount St. Mary's) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -3.1-3.11st half: -5.4-5.42nd half2nd half: +3.7+3.72nd half: +2.0+2.0
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -3.1-3.11st half: -5.4-5.42nd half2nd half: +3.7+3.72nd half: +2.0+2.0
Mount St. Mary'sFairfield
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Mount St. Mary'sLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A08/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
28-21
28
21
+7
A14/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
20-24
20
24
-4
H22/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A28/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
39-25
39
25
+14
A01/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
21-35
21
35
-14
A08/03
NCAA
Xavier
#8
L
16-51
16
51
-35
A03/11
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#335
W
29-22
29
22
+7
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#45
L
30-42
30
42
-12
A14/11
NCAA
60.1Avg total
28.5Scored
31.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.534.265.8-2.740%-
Last 30 at home (13)33.233.266.5+0.038%-
Last 30 away (17)30.235.065.2-4.841%-
Last 10 (10)28.531.660.1-3.150%-
Last 5 (5)27.035.062.0-8.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)29.935.765.6-5.740%-
vs Similar (8)35.436.171.5-0.850%-
vs Weaker (7)30.629.059.6+1.629%-
This opponent (Fairfield) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
FairfieldLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Quinnipiac
#123
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A22/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
37-23
37
23
+14
H28/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
25-39
25
39
-14
H01/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
W
31-27
31
27
+4
H06/03
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A07/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A09/03
NCAA
Vermont
#193
L
25-38
25
38
-13
H06/11
NCAA
Bryant University
#340
L
26-30
26
30
-4
A08/11
NCAA
Wisconsin
#50
L
20-52
20
52
-32
A11/11
NCAA
NJIT
#345
L
30-32
30
32
-2
H15/11
NCAA
64.0Avg total
29.3Scored
34.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.733.567.2+0.247%-
Last 30 at home (15)34.730.164.7+4.667%-
Last 30 away (15)32.736.969.7-4.227%-
Last 10 (10)29.334.764.0-5.430%-
Last 5 (5)26.238.464.6-12.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)22.545.067.5-22.50%-
vs Similar (15)32.934.066.9-1.140%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)36.431.267.5+5.262%-
This opponent (Mount St. Mary's) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Mount St. Mary's wins
5
Fairfield wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AVirginia Tech62-82
07/11/26HLoyola Maryland68-57
03/11/26AXavier52-97
08/03/26ASiena58-63
01/03/26AFairfield69-47
28/02/26ASacred Heart69-77
22/02/26HCanisius68-47
21/02/26HNiagara76-63
14/02/26ARider65-55
08/02/26AIona83-76
Fairfieldlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HNJIT63-60
11/11/26AWisconsin42-89
08/11/26ABryant University68-59
06/11/26HVermont67-79
09/03/26ASiena61-76
07/03/26ASt. Peters74-55
06/03/26HManhattan71-60
01/03/26HMount St. Mary's47-69
28/02/26HSiena72-58
22/02/26AQuinnipiac85-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mount St. Mary's
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWL33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game60.768.057.0
Allowed / game78.757.089.5
Point differential-18.0+11.0-32.5
Avg total139.3125.0146.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Fairfield
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLW50%
HomeLW50%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game60.065.055.0
Allowed / game71.869.574.0
Point differential-11.8-4.5-19.0
Avg total131.8134.5129.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena43175%83.877.8+6.0
2 Sacred Heart42250%84.868.2+16.5
3 Merrimack Warriors42250%62.865.8-3.0
4 Canisius42250%77.281.5-4.2
5 Quinnipiac42250%68.575.5-7.0
6 Fairfield42250%60.071.8-11.8
7 Iona52340%64.869.6-4.8
8 Mount St. Mary's31233%60.778.7-18.0
9 Marist41325%67.869.2-1.5
10 Manhattan41325%63.873.8-10.0
11 Rider51420%64.077.6-13.6
12 St. Peters4040%47.563.8-16.2
13 Niagara3030%63.084.0-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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