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Mount St. Mary's vs Merrimack Warriors Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 30 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 00:00
Scheduled
Position#298
Record1-2
FormWLLWL
Points / game60.7
Allowed / game78.7
vs
Position#240
Record2-2
FormLWLWL
Points / game62.8
Allowed / game65.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Mount St. Mary's v Merrimack Warriors
29 Jan 2027
MOUN v MERR
upcoming
05 Feb 2026
MOUN70
MERR87
03 Feb 2022
MOUN69
MERR53
15 Jan 2021
MOUN63
MERR52
14 Jan 2021
MOUN77
MERR57
23 Feb 2020
MOUN65
MERR57
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mount St. Mary's win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Merrimack Warriors win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mount St. Mary'sUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
W
83-76
83
76
+7
A08/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
65-55
65
55
+10
A14/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
76-63
76
63
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
68-47
68
47
+21
H22/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A28/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
69-47
69
47
+22
A01/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
58-63
58
63
-5
A08/03
NCAA
Xavier
#6
L
52-97
52
97
-45
A03/11
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#334
W
68-57
68
57
+11
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#38
L
62-82
62
82
-20
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-34
44-42
28-21
37-34
31-31
45-32
20-24
48-23
32-31
37-46
39-25
30-22
21-35
37-28
16-51
36-46
29-22
39-35
30-42
32-40
133.4Avg total
67.0Scored
66.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)60.778.7139.3-18.033%
Season at home (1)68.057.0125.0+11.0100%
Season away (2)57.089.5146.5-32.50%
Last 10 (10)67.066.4133.4+0.660%
Last 5 (5)61.869.2131.0-7.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)63.274.3137.5-11.127%
vs Similar (8)72.274.4146.6-2.150%
vs Weaker (7)71.356.3127.6+15.0100%
This opponent (Merrimack Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Merrimack WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
W
88-86 OT
88
86
+2
H22/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
73-66
73
66
+7
A01/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
70-48
70
48
+22
H06/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
W
58-57
58
57
+1
H08/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
54-64
54
64
-10
H11/03
NCAA
Appalachian State
#208
W
63-49
63
49
+14
H02/11
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#109
L
61-71
61
71
-10
H06/11
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#181
W
73-60
73
60
+13
A08/11
NCAA
Florida
#48
L
54-83
54
83
-29
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-33
32-35
32-29
30-38
30-28
43-38
39-25
31-23
30-28
28-29
30-33
24-31
43-21
20-28
26-38
35-33
30-26
43-34
26-43
28-40
130.7Avg total
65.6Scored
65.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)62.865.8128.5-3.050%
Season at home (2)62.060.0122.0+2.050%
Season away (2)63.571.5135.0-8.050%
Last 10 (10)65.665.1130.7+0.560%
Last 5 (5)61.065.4126.4-4.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)59.367.7127.0-8.333%
vs Similar (18)69.562.9132.4+6.678%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)70.762.6133.2+8.189%
This opponent (Mount St. Mary's) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -3.1-3.11st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: +3.7+3.72nd half: -1.5-1.5
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -3.1-3.11st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: +3.7+3.72nd half: -1.5-1.5
Mount St. Mary'sMerrimack Warriors
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Mount St. Mary'sLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A08/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
28-21
28
21
+7
A14/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
20-24
20
24
-4
H22/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A28/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
39-25
39
25
+14
A01/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
21-35
21
35
-14
A08/03
NCAA
Xavier
#6
L
16-51
16
51
-35
A03/11
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#334
W
29-22
29
22
+7
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#38
L
30-42
30
42
-12
A14/11
NCAA
60.1Avg total
28.5Scored
31.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.534.265.8-2.740%-
Last 30 at home (13)33.233.266.5+0.038%-
Last 30 away (17)30.235.065.2-4.841%-
Last 10 (10)28.531.660.1-3.150%-
Last 5 (5)27.035.062.0-8.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)29.935.765.6-5.740%-
vs Similar (8)35.436.171.5-0.850%-
vs Weaker (7)30.629.059.6+1.629%-
This opponent (Merrimack Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Merrimack WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H22/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
30-28
30
28
+2
A01/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H06/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
W
30-28
30
28
+2
H08/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H11/03
NCAA
Appalachian State
#208
W
43-21
43
21
+22
H02/11
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#109
L
26-38
26
38
-12
H06/11
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#181
W
30-26
30
26
+4
A08/11
NCAA
Florida
#48
L
26-43
26
43
-17
A14/11
NCAA
62.6Avg total
32.2Scored
30.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.829.763.5+4.073%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.829.565.3+6.380%-
Last 30 away (15)31.730.061.7+1.767%-
Last 10 (10)32.230.462.6+1.870%-
Last 5 (5)31.032.263.2-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)31.734.065.7-2.333%-
vs Similar (18)33.328.962.2+4.472%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)35.330.065.3+5.389%-
This opponent (Mount St. Mary's) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AVirginia Tech62-82
07/11/26HLoyola Maryland68-57
03/11/26AXavier52-97
08/03/26ASiena58-63
01/03/26AFairfield69-47
28/02/26ASacred Heart69-77
22/02/26HCanisius68-47
21/02/26HNiagara76-63
14/02/26ARider65-55
08/02/26AIona83-76
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AFlorida54-83
08/11/26AAlbany Great Danes73-60
06/11/26HUMass Lowell61-71
02/11/26HAppalachian State63-49
11/03/26HSiena54-64
08/03/26HMarist58-57
06/03/26HSacred Heart70-48
01/03/26ANiagara73-66
28/02/26ACanisius62-67
22/02/26HIona88-86 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mount St. Mary's
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWL33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game60.768.057.0
Allowed / game78.757.089.5
Point differential-18.0+11.0-32.5
Avg total139.3125.0146.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Merrimack Warriors
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWL50%
HomeWL50%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game62.862.063.5
Allowed / game65.860.071.5
Point differential-3.0+2.0-8.0
Avg total128.5122.0135.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena43175%83.877.8+6.0
2 Sacred Heart42250%84.868.2+16.5
3 Merrimack Warriors42250%62.865.8-3.0
4 Canisius42250%77.281.5-4.2
5 Fairfield42250%60.071.8-11.8
6 Iona52340%64.869.6-4.8
7 Quinnipiac52340%68.274.8-6.6
8 Mount St. Mary's31233%60.778.7-18.0
9 Marist41325%67.869.2-1.5
10 Manhattan41325%63.873.8-10.0
11 Rider51420%64.077.6-13.6
12 St. Peters4040%47.563.8-16.2
13 Niagara4040%58.579.5-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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