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Murray State vs Evansville Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 09 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#25
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game95.0
Allowed / game67.5
vs
Position#229
Record2-2
FormLWWLL
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game76.2
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Murray State v Evansville
09 Jan 2027
MURR v EVAN
upcoming
21 Feb 2026
MURR88
EVAN75
06 Mar 2025
MURR74
EVAN53
03 Dec 2024
MURR63
EVAN61
10 Feb 2024
MURR73
EVAN70
18 Feb 2023
MURR74
EVAN58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Evansville win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
74-72
74
72
+2
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
70-87
70
87
-17
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
61-78
61
78
-17
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
88-75
88
75
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
78-87
78
87
-9
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
79-92
79
92
-13
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#186
W
94-64
94
64
+30
A02/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
93-71
93
71
+22
H08/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
W
94-57
94
57
+37
H11/11
NCAA
Texas Southern
#328
W
99-78
99
78
+21
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
43-21
31-51
39-24
31-63
28-36
33-42
37-36
51-39
35-36
43-51
32-50
47-42
46-35
48-29
42-39
51-32
51-30
43-27
50-38
49-40
159.1Avg total
83.0Scored
76.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)95.067.5162.5+27.5100%
Season at home (3)95.368.7164.0+26.7100%
Season away (1)94.064.0158.0+30.0100%
Last 10 (10)83.076.1159.1+6.960%
Last 5 (5)91.872.4164.2+19.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)80.489.7170.1-9.329%
vs Similar (14)81.377.8159.1+3.564%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)87.470.6158.0+16.9100%
This opponent (Evansville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EvansvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
46-84
46
84
-38
H19/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
75-88
75
88
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
64-98
64
98
-34
A26/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
80-79
80
79
+1
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
67-81
67
81
-14
H01/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
59-68
59
68
-9
A06/03
NCAA
Indiana-Kokomo
#355
W
80-70
80
70
+10
H03/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#297
W
78-76 OT
78
76
+2
H08/11
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#139
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A11/11
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#76
L
78-86
78
86
-8
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
23-38
23-46
36-37
39-51
29-44
35-54
34-42
46-37
27-38
40-43
36-35
23-33
34-42
46-28
30-35
39-34
20-27
48-46
45-43
33-43
149.8Avg total
69.5Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)76.076.2152.2-0.250%
Season at home (3)78.777.3156.0+1.367%
Season away (1)68.073.0141.0-5.00%
Last 10 (10)69.580.3149.8-10.830%
Last 5 (5)72.674.6147.2-2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (29)66.478.4144.8-11.917%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +5.8+5.81st half: -6.7-6.72nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: -4.3-4.3
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +5.8+5.81st half: -6.7-6.72nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: -4.3-4.3
Murray StateEvansville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
43-21
43
21
+22
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
32-50
32
50
-18
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#186
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A02/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H08/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
W
51-30
51
30
+21
H11/11
NCAA
Texas Southern
#328
W
50-38
50
38
+12
H14/11
NCAA
74.8Avg total
40.3Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.836.276.0+3.667%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.235.276.4+6.182%-
Last 30 away (13)37.837.575.4+0.346%-
Last 10 (10)40.334.574.8+5.870%-
Last 5 (5)44.238.482.6+5.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)36.739.976.6-3.157%-
vs Similar (14)37.936.274.1+1.750%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)45.033.378.3+11.7100%-
This opponent (Evansville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EvansvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
23-38
23
38
-15
H19/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A21/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
29-44
29
44
-15
A26/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
27-38
27
38
-11
H01/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A06/03
NCAA
Indiana-Kokomo
#355
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H03/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#297
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H08/11
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#139
L
20-27
20
27
-7
A11/11
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#76
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H14/11
NCAA
69.5Avg total
31.4Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.737.368.0-6.623%-
Last 30 at home (16)31.637.969.6-6.325%-
Last 30 away (14)29.636.566.1-6.921%-
Last 10 (10)31.438.169.5-6.720%-
Last 5 (5)33.036.469.4-3.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (29)30.637.167.7-6.524%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Murray State wins
2
Evansville wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HTexas Southern99-78
11/11/26HAlcorn State94-57
08/11/26HNorthwestern St.93-71
02/11/26ATennessee State94-64
06/03/26HIllinois (Chi.)79-92
01/03/26ABradley78-87
21/02/26HEvansville88-75
19/02/26AIllinois State61-78
15/02/26HBelmont70-87
13/02/26AIndiana State74-72
Evansvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HMiami (Ohio)78-86
11/11/26AMiddle Tenn. St.68-73
08/11/26HSouthern Indiana78-76 OT
03/11/26HIndiana-Kokomo80-70
06/03/26ANorthern Iowa59-68
01/03/26HSouthern Illinois67-81
28/02/26HValparaiso80-79
26/02/26ABelmont64-98
21/02/26AMurray State75-88
19/02/26HIllinois (Chi.)46-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game95.095.394.0
Allowed / game67.568.764.0
Point differential+27.5+26.7+30.0
Avg total162.5164.0158.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Evansville
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLL50%
HomeWWL67%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%67%0%
Points / game76.078.768.0
Allowed / game76.277.373.0
Point differential-0.2+1.3-5.0
Avg total152.2156.0141.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %25%33%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State440100%95.067.5+27.5
2 Drake330100%85.762.7+23.0
3 Illinois (Chi.)43175%79.564.8+14.8
4 Belmont43175%73.562.2+11.2
5 Southern Illinois32167%85.070.0+15.0
6 Valparaiso32167%77.373.0+4.3
7 Indiana State42250%80.265.8+14.5
8 Evansville42250%76.076.2-0.2
9 Bradley52340%59.856.4+3.4
10 Northern Iowa52340%85.286.0-0.8
11 Illinois State41325%81.275.8+5.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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