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Nevezis-OPTIBET vs Neptunas Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 11 Apr 2021
Tip-off: 12:00
Final 88-77
22-16 26-20 22-18 18-23
Position#10
Record7-20
FormWLLLL
Points / game75.3
Allowed / game85.3
Nevezis-OPTIBET 🏆
Lithuania
vs
Neptunas
Lithuania
Position#6
Record9-18
FormLLLWL
Points / game76.8
Allowed / game84.7
LithuaniaLKL
Domestic2020-21
Meetings · Nevezis-OPTIBET v Neptunas
11 Apr 2021
NOP88
NEP77
27 Jan 2021
NOP79
NEP76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nevezis-OPTIBET winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Neptunas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Nevezis-OPTIBETLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNevezis-OPTIBET
Date
Competition
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#8
L
64-89
64
89
-25
no box
H31/01
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
47-78
47
78
-31
34avg 67
H02/02
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
53-108
53
108
-55
41avg 67
H06/02
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
73-81
73
81
-8
62avg 67
A10/02
LKL
Juventus
#4
L
81-99
81
99
-18
68avg 67
H28/02
LKL
Lietkabelis
#3
W
76-67
76
67
+9
70avg 67
H06/03
LKL
CBet
#5
L
71-84
71
84
-13
60avg 67
H13/03
LKL
Alytaus Dzukija
#9
L
76-87
76
87
-11
62avg 67
A20/03
LKL
Neptunas
#6
L
83-84
83
84
-1
82avg 67
A03/04
LKL
CBet
#5
L
70-97
70
97
-27
58avg 67
A05/04
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-24
18-12
12-32
16-21
18-22
14-23
8-12
7-21
7-26
16-32
11-23
19-27
16-14
24-24
15-22
18-21
18-35
24-16
20-20
19-28
16-19
24-14
15-18
21-16
21-20
12-26
17-16
21-22
20-29
25-24
19-20
12-14
23-22
17-21
22-24
21-17
18-20
17-33
19-22
16-22
156.8Avg total
69.4Scored
87.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)75.385.3160.6-9.926%
Season at home (14)74.484.3158.6-9.943%
Season away (13)76.486.3162.7-9.98%
Last 10 (10)69.487.4156.8-18.010%
Last 5 (5)75.283.8159.0-8.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)73.386.9160.2-13.720%
vs Similar ◀ (12)77.983.2161.1-5.233%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Neptunas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Alytaus Dzukija
#9
W
81-64
81
64
+17
82avg 72
H09/02
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
72-84
72
84
-12
no box
A13/02
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#4
L
69-86
69
86
-17
no box
H14/02
King Mindaugas Cup
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
72-85
72
85
-13
65avg 72
A28/02
LKL
Juventus
#4
L
58-98
58
98
-40
37avg 72
A03/03
LKL
CBet
#5
L
66-72
66
72
-6
60avg 72
A07/03
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
59-80
59
80
-21
56avg 72
H13/03
LKL
Siauliai
#7
L
68-99
68
99
-31
no box
A21/03
LKL
Nevezis-OPTIBET
#10
W
84-83
84
83
+1
80avg 72
H03/04
LKL
Lietkabelis
#3
L
77-82
77
82
-5
no box
A08/04
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-10
26-23
22-16
18-15
21-15
14-23
18-17
19-29
11-21
22-19
18-25
18-21
26-22
11-27
17-16
18-20
17-22
13-24
16-29
12-23
28-10
18-15
13-28
7-19
5-22
18-15
18-18
18-25
18-22
10-27
15-26
25-24
22-23
21-17
24-22
17-21
17-25
25-17
23-23
12-17
153.9Avg total
70.6Scored
83.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)76.884.7161.5-8.033%
Season at home (13)80.484.4164.8-4.054%
Season away (14)73.485.1158.5-11.614%
Last 10 (10)70.683.3153.9-12.720%
Last 5 (5)70.883.2154.0-12.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)74.188.5162.6-14.46%
vs Similar ◀ (14)79.580.4159.9-0.957%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Nevezis-OPTIBET) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -5.6-5.6Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: -3.4-3.4Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -3.9-3.9Q4: -5.0-5.0
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -5.6-5.6Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: -3.4-3.4Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -3.9-3.9Q4: -5.0-5.0
Nevezis-OPTIBETNeptunas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Nevezis-OPTIBETLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#8
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H31/01
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
32-45
32
45
-13
H02/02
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
23-58
23
58
-35
H06/02
LKL
Rytas
#2
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A10/02
LKL
Juventus
#4
L
42-51
42
51
-9
H28/02
LKL
Lietkabelis
#3
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H06/03
LKL
CBet
#5
L
33-46
33
46
-13
H13/03
LKL
Alytaus Dzukija
#9
L
45-53
45
53
-8
A20/03
LKL
Neptunas
#6
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A03/04
LKL
CBet
#5
L
35-53
35
53
-18
A05/04
LKL
82.2Avg total
36.6Scored
45.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (27)37.642.780.2-5.133%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.442.079.4-4.643%-
Last 30 away (13)37.843.481.2-5.623%-
Last 10 (10)36.645.682.2-9.020%-
Last 5 (5)38.645.684.2-7.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)37.243.780.9-6.533%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)38.041.379.3-3.333%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Neptunas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alytaus Dzukija
#9
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H09/02
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A13/02
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#4
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H14/02
King Mindaugas Cup
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
37-49
37
49
-12
A28/02
LKL
Juventus
#4
L
30-46
30
46
-16
A03/03
LKL
CBet
#5
W
46-25
46
25
+21
A07/03
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
23-37
23
37
-14
H13/03
LKL
Siauliai
#7
L
28-49
28
49
-21
A21/03
LKL
Nevezis-OPTIBET
#10
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H03/04
LKL
Lietkabelis
#3
D
42-42
42
42
+0
A08/04
LKL
75.7Avg total
35.8Scored
39.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.941.680.5-2.737%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.842.081.8-2.250%-
Last 30 away (16)38.141.279.4-3.125%-
Last 10 (10)35.839.975.7-4.130%-
Last 5 (5)36.438.675.0-2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)37.943.080.9-5.131%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)40.040.080.0+0.043%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Nevezis-OPTIBET) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nevezis-OPTIBETtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nevezis-OPTIBET: 68.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.8 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.517.1
43.3%
54.2%34.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.77.5
30.4%
36.6%22.5
🏀 Free throws18.212.2
67.0%
75.2%12.2
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 73.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.8 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.019.8
53.5%
54.2%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.27.4
31.9%
36.6%22.2
🏀 Free throws17.911.2
62.6%
75.2%11.2
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Apr 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nevezis-OPTIBET
LLLLWLLLLL
Neptunas
LWLLLLLLLW
#10
League position
#6
-23.7
Net rating
-13.8
93.5
Offensive rating
97.5
117.2
Defensive rating
111.3
44.2%
Effective FG%
51.3%
56.9%
Opp. effective FG%
54.4%
22.6%
Turnover %
23.0%
36.9%
Off. rebound %
31.0%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.30
30.4%
3-point %
31.9%
63.8%
Assist %
64.7%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence93.5 · 97.5Defence117.2 · 111.3Shooting44.2% · 51.3%3-point %30.4% · 31.9%Ball care22.6% · 23.0%Off. rebounds36.9% · 31.0%Free throws0.28 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)10% · 20%
■ Nevezis-OPTIBET   ■ Neptunas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Nevezis-OPTIBET wins
2
Neptunas wins
DateGameScore
03/04/21Neptunas v Nevezis-OPTIBET84-83
27/01/21Nevezis-OPTIBET v Neptunas79-76
28/09/20Neptunas v Nevezis-OPTIBET76-70
Nevezis-OPTIBETlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/04/21ACBet70-97
03/04/21ANeptunas83-84
20/03/21AAlytaus Dzukija76-87
13/03/21HCBet71-84
06/03/21HLietkabelis76-67
28/02/21HJuventus81-99
10/02/21ARytas73-81
06/02/21HZalgiris Kaunas53-108
02/02/21HZalgiris Kaunas47-78
31/01/21HPieno Zvaigzdes64-89
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/04/21ALietkabelis77-82
03/04/21HNevezis-OPTIBET84-83
21/03/21ASiauliai68-99
13/03/21HRytas59-80
07/03/21ACBet66-72
03/03/21AJuventus58-98
28/02/21AZalgiris Kaunas72-85
14/02/21HJuventus69-86
13/02/21AZalgiris Kaunas72-84
09/02/21HAlytaus Dzukija81-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nevezis-OPTIBET
LKL 2020-21
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL26%
HomeLLLWL43%
AwayLLLLL8%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271413
Win %26%43%8%
Points / game75.374.476.4
Allowed / game85.384.386.3
Point differential-9.9-9.9-9.9
Avg total160.6158.6162.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%7%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won29% (7)67% (3)0% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Neptunas
LKL 2020-21
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL33%
HomeWWWLW54%
AwayLLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271314
Win %33%54%14%
Points / game76.880.473.4
Allowed / game84.784.485.1
Point differential-8.0-4.0-11.6
Avg total161.5164.8158.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%15%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)100% (2)17% (6)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Zalgiris Kaunas2321291%89.869.4+20.4
2 Rytas2721678%88.079.2+8.8
3 Lietkabelis2718967%84.078.7+5.3
4 Juventus28181064%87.785.1+2.6
5 CBet27111641%85.188.3-3.1
6 Pieno Zvaigzdes28111739%79.282.3-3.1
7 Alytaus Dzukija2791833%81.284.3-3.1
8 Siauliai2791833%83.390.2-6.9
9 Neptunas2791833%76.884.7-8.0
10 Nevezis-OPTIBET2772026%75.385.3-9.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nevezis-OPTIBET2226221888
Neptunas1620182377
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