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Zalgiris Kaunas vs Neptunas Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 28 Feb 2021
Tip-off: 15:20
Final 85-72
22-26 27-11 16-17 20-18
Position#1
Record15-2
FormWWLWL
Points / game89.1
Allowed / game67.3
vs
Position#6
Record8-12
FormLWWLL
Points / game79.5
Allowed / game84.5
LithuaniaLKL
Domestic2020-21
Meetings · Zalgiris Kaunas v Neptunas
25 Apr 2027
ZAL v NEP
upcoming
15 Nov 2026
ZAL v NEP
upcoming
21 Feb 2026
ZAL119
NEP81
08 Feb 2026
ZAL87
NEP76
04 Jan 2026
ZAL112
NEP77
24 May 2025
ZAL88
NEP75
07 May 2025
ZAL84
NEP49
15 Dec 2024
ZAL91
NEP75
27 Nov 2023
ZAL76
NEP88
08 Jan 2023
ZAL77
NEP46
11 May 2022
ZAL89
NEP60
07 May 2022
ZAL87
NEP71
02 May 2022
ZAL92
NEP88
10 Oct 2021
ZAL98
NEP79
28 Feb 2021
ZAL85
NEP72
13 Feb 2021
ZAL84
NEP72
22 Nov 2020
ZAL81
NEP59
01 Dec 2019
ZAL100
NEP82
09 May 2019
ZAL90
NEP80
14 Oct 2018
ZAL60
NEP75
10 Apr 2018
ZAL94
NEP47
05 Nov 2017
ZAL88
NEP62
19 May 2017
ZAL83
NEP60
13 May 2017
ZAL83
NEP54
05 Mar 2017
ZAL69
NEP78
23 Oct 2016
ZAL77
NEP67
06 Jun 2016
ZAL97
NEP70
31 May 2016
ZAL78
NEP54
25 May 2016
ZAL83
NEP72
31 Jan 2016
ZAL89
NEP57
11 Oct 2015
ZAL81
NEP71
01 Mar 2015
ZAL86
NEP90
02 Nov 2014
ZAL86
NEP48
06 Jun 2014
ZAL90
NEP70
31 May 2014
ZAL88
NEP72
26 May 2014
ZAL92
NEP83
07 Apr 2014
ZAL79
NEP88
23 Apr 2013
ZAL99
NEP83
20 Jan 2013
ZAL111
NEP87
26 Feb 2012
ZAL85
NEP84
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zalgiris Kaunas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Neptunas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Zalgiris KaunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKaunas
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#10
L
68-81
68
81
-13
66avg 80
A29/01
Euroleague
Juventus
#4
L
87-90
87
90
-3
81avg 80
A31/01
LKL
Nevezis-OPTIBET
#10
W
78-47
78
47
+31
81avg 80
A02/02
LKL
Nevezis-OPTIBET
#10
W
108-53
108
53
+55
116avg 80
A06/02
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#8
W
95-76
95
76
+19
100avg 80
H09/02
LKL
Neptunas
#10
W
84-72
84
72
+12
no box
H13/02
King Mindaugas Cup
Lietkabelis
#3
W
76-69
76
69
+7
no box
H14/02
King Mindaugas Cup
Barcelona
#2
L
62-86
62
86
-24
56avg 80
A18/02
Euroleague
Crvena zvezda
#17
W
75-62
75
62
+13
78avg 80
H23/02
Euroleague
Real Madrid
#7
L
58-70
58
70
-12
50avg 80
A25/02
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-21
16-24
12-16
20-20
28-22
24-24
24-19
11-25
22-18
23-14
12-8
21-7
26-7
32-16
23-11
27-19
19-22
23-26
30-19
23-9
15-21
23-14
17-18
29-19
19-8
18-20
21-13
18-28
24-24
13-24
10-23
15-15
22-26
18-18
20-14
15-4
13-21
18-15
11-15
16-19
149.7Avg total
79.1Scored
70.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)89.167.3156.4+21.888%
Season at home (8)87.466.2153.6+21.188%
Season away (9)90.668.2158.8+22.389%
Last 10 (10)79.170.6149.7+8.560%
Last 5 (5)71.071.8142.8-0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)65.780.7146.3-15.00%
vs Similar (12)78.276.2154.3+2.058%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)90.667.8158.4+22.893%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Siauliai
#7
L
88-94
88
94
-6
90avg 75
H10/01
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#8
W
77-73
77
73
+4
64avg 75
A14/01
LKL
Siauliai
#7
L
77-88
77
88
-11
no box
H17/01
King Mindaugas Cup
Rytas
#2
L
83-95
83
95
-12
77avg 75
A20/01
LKL
CBet
#5
W
92-69
92
69
+23
97avg 75
H24/01
LKL
Nevezis-OPTIBET
#10
L
76-79
76
79
-3
70avg 75
A27/01
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#8
W
99-93
99
93
+6
103avg 75
H06/02
LKL
Alytaus Dzukija
#9
W
81-64
81
64
+17
82avg 75
H09/02
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
72-84
72
84
-12
no box
A13/02
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#4
L
69-86
69
86
-17
no box
H14/02
King Mindaugas Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-23
19-22
23-26
22-23
19-19
22-23
10-13
26-18
17-21
28-22
14-21
18-24
20-26
20-16
17-31
26-22
23-15
19-17
29-20
21-17
15-24
14-11
19-18
28-26
20-28
29-17
20-21
30-27
15-10
26-23
22-16
18-15
21-15
14-23
18-17
19-29
11-21
22-19
18-25
18-21
163.9Avg total
81.4Scored
82.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)79.584.5163.9-5.040%
Season at home (11)82.084.9166.9-2.955%
Season away (9)76.383.9160.2-7.622%
Last 10 (10)81.482.5163.9-1.140%
Last 5 (5)79.481.2160.6-1.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)76.689.2165.8-12.78%
vs Similar (14)79.778.9158.6+0.857%
vs Weaker (3)94.377.3171.7+17.0100%
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: +0.4+0.4
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: +0.4+0.4
Zalgiris KaunasNeptunas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Zalgiris KaunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#10
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A29/01
Euroleague
Juventus
#4
W
52-46
52
46
+6
A31/01
LKL
Nevezis-OPTIBET
#10
W
45-32
45
32
+13
A02/02
LKL
Nevezis-OPTIBET
#10
W
58-23
58
23
+35
A06/02
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#8
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H09/02
LKL
Neptunas
#10
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H13/02
King Mindaugas Cup
Lietkabelis
#3
W
37-28
37
28
+9
H14/02
King Mindaugas Cup
Barcelona
#2
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A18/02
Euroleague
Crvena zvezda
#17
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H23/02
Euroleague
Real Madrid
#7
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A25/02
Euroleague
80.1Avg total
41.6Scored
38.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.037.779.7+4.360%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.336.778.0+4.767%-
Last 30 away (15)42.738.781.4+3.953%-
Last 10 (10)41.638.580.1+3.150%-
Last 5 (5)36.638.274.8-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)34.044.078.0-10.00%-
vs Similar (12)39.739.078.7+0.750%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)45.535.480.9+10.180%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Siauliai
#7
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H10/01
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#8
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A14/01
LKL
Siauliai
#7
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H17/01
King Mindaugas Cup
Rytas
#2
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A20/01
LKL
CBet
#5
W
42-32
42
32
+10
H24/01
LKL
Nevezis-OPTIBET
#10
L
29-35
29
35
-6
A27/01
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#8
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H06/02
LKL
Alytaus Dzukija
#9
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H09/02
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A13/02
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#4
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H14/02
King Mindaugas Cup
79.3Avg total
39.8Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.540.581.1+0.050%-
Last 30 at home (18)41.840.582.3+1.367%-
Last 30 away (12)38.640.679.2-2.025%-
Last 10 (10)39.839.579.3+0.340%-
Last 5 (5)37.438.275.6-0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)39.642.882.4-3.242%-
vs Similar (14)39.940.179.9-0.243%-
vs Weaker (3)47.734.382.0+13.3100%-
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Zalgiris Kaunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Zalgiris Kaunas: 79.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.3 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.8 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.721.2
53.4%
54.2%42.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.08.5
40.5%
36.6%25.5
🏀 Free throws14.011.3
80.7%
75.2%11.3
They take 60.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 81.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.8 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.719.4
54.3%
54.2%38.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.89.4
36.4%
36.6%28.2
🏀 Free throws19.514.9
76.4%
75.2%14.9
They take 61.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Feb 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Zalgiris Kaunas
LWLWWWWWLL
Neptunas
LLWWLWLLWL
#1
League position
#6
+13.3
Net rating
+0.5
111.9
Offensive rating
109.4
98.6
Defensive rating
108.8
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.5%
50.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.4%
19.1%
Turnover %
20.3%
30.4%
Off. rebound %
32.6%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.32
40.5%
3-point %
36.4%
72.1%
Assist %
71.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence111.9 · 109.4Defence98.6 · 108.8Shooting55.9% · 54.5%3-point %40.5% · 36.4%Ball care19.1% · 20.3%Off. rebounds30.4% · 32.6%Free throws0.23 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Zalgiris Kaunas   ■ Neptunas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Zalgiris Kaunas wins
3
Neptunas wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/21AReal Madrid58-70
23/02/21HCrvena zvezda75-62
18/02/21ABarcelona62-86
14/02/21HLietkabelis76-69
13/02/21HNeptunas84-72
09/02/21HPieno Zvaigzdes95-76
06/02/21ANevezis-OPTIBET108-53
02/02/21ANevezis-OPTIBET78-47
31/01/21AJuventus87-90
29/01/21ABaskonia68-81
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/21HJuventus69-86
13/02/21AZalgiris Kaunas72-84
09/02/21HAlytaus Dzukija81-64
06/02/21HPieno Zvaigzdes99-93
27/01/21ANevezis-OPTIBET76-79
24/01/21HCBet92-69
20/01/21ARytas83-95
17/01/21HSiauliai77-88
14/01/21APieno Zvaigzdes77-73
10/01/21HSiauliai88-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Zalgiris Kaunas
LKL 2020-21
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW88%
HomeWWWWW88%
AwayWWLWW89%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %88%88%89%
Points / game89.187.490.6
Allowed / game67.366.268.2
Point differential+21.8+21.1+22.3
Avg total156.4153.6158.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+76%75%78%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %6%12%0%
Neptunas
LKL 2020-21
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW40%
HomeLLWWW55%
AwayLWWLL22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20119
Win %40%55%22%
Points / game79.582.076.3
Allowed / game84.584.983.9
Point differential-5.0-2.9-7.6
Avg total163.9166.9160.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%18%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)100% (1)20% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Zalgiris Kaunas1715288%89.167.3+21.8
2 Rytas2015575%89.180.2+8.9
3 Juventus2115671%88.085.4+2.6
4 Lietkabelis2014670%84.777.2+7.5
5 Pieno Zvaigzdes2081240%79.482.0-2.6
6 Neptunas2081240%79.584.5-5.0
7 Alytaus Dzukija1871139%80.683.3-2.7
8 CBet2271532%85.891.7-6.0
9 Nevezis-OPTIBET2261627%75.485.6-10.2
10 Siauliai2051525%82.892.7-9.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Zalgiris Kaunas2227162085
Neptunas2611171872
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