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North Carolina vs Citadel Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 22 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Scheduled
Position#116
Record3-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game70.8
vs
Position#90
Record3-1
FormLLWWW
Points / game90.0
Allowed / game64.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · North Carolina v Citadel
21 Dec 2026
NORT v CITA
upcoming
13 Dec 2022
NORT100
CITA67
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Carolina win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Citadel win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
89-82
89
82
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-63
67
63
+4
H04/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A07/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
79-80
79
80
-1
H13/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
78-82 OT
78
82
-4
H19/03
NCAA
Western Carolina
#189
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H03/11
NCAA
Wofford
#255
W
109-70
109
70
+39
H07/11
NCAA
Wyoming
#94
W
76-63
76
63
+13
H11/11
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
70-78
70
78
-8
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-38
38-36
44-44
45-38
27-30
40-33
34-39
27-37
31-39
48-41
39-28
36-47
39-30
41-42
51-34
58-36
31-29
45-34
31-38
39-40
152.6Avg total
78.6Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.870.8154.5+13.075%
Season at home (4)83.870.8154.5+13.075%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.674.0152.6+4.660%
Last 5 (5)82.673.0155.6+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)69.369.0138.3+0.367%
vs Similar (14)74.075.6149.6-1.650%
vs Weaker (13)87.670.8158.5+16.892%
This opponent (Citadel) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CitadelUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Samford
#149
L
75-78
75
78
-3
H20/02
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#273
L
72-93
72
93
-21
H21/02
NCAA
Furman
#93
L
51-72
51
72
-21
A25/02
NCAA
Wofford
#126
W
93-90 OT
93
90
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#273
W
88-85
88
85
+3
A06/03
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
L
76-83
76
83
-7
A07/03
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#117
L
52-77
52
77
-25
A03/11
NCAA
Erskine
#421
W
100-57
100
57
+43
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#498
W
131-50
131
50
+81
H11/11
NCAA
North Florida
#331
W
77-74
77
74
+3
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-31
41-47
29-50
43-43
31-33
20-39
39-39
44-44
49-49
39-36
32-36
44-47
27-36
25-41
44-28
56-29
66-20
65-30
29-35
48-39
157.4Avg total
81.5Scored
75.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)90.064.5154.5+25.575%
Season at home (2)115.553.5169.0+62.0100%
Season away (2)64.575.5140.0-11.050%
Last 10 (10)81.575.9157.4+5.650%
Last 5 (5)87.268.2155.4+19.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)68.781.8150.5-13.126%
vs Similar (6)70.561.8132.3+8.767%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)91.666.2157.8+25.480%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.7+1.71st half: +2.3+2.32nd half2nd half: +3.3+3.32nd half: +3.0+3.0
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.7+1.71st half: +2.3+2.32nd half2nd half: +3.3+3.32nd half: +3.0+3.0
North CarolinaCitadel
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H04/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A07/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H13/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H19/03
NCAA
Western Carolina
#189
W
39-30
39
30
+9
H03/11
NCAA
Wofford
#255
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H07/11
NCAA
Wyoming
#94
W
31-29
31
29
+2
H11/11
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H14/11
NCAA
71.5Avg total
36.6Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.635.874.5+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (19)39.633.873.4+5.774%-
Last 30 away (11)37.039.376.3-2.336%-
Last 10 (10)36.634.971.5+1.750%-
Last 5 (5)38.231.870.0+6.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)31.336.367.7-5.033%-
vs Similar (14)34.636.971.5-2.236%-
vs Weaker (13)44.634.679.2+10.092%-
This opponent (Citadel) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CitadelLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Samford
#149
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H20/02
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#273
L
29-50
29
50
-21
H21/02
NCAA
Furman
#93
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A25/02
NCAA
Wofford
#126
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A28/02
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#273
D
49-49
49
49
+0
A06/03
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A07/03
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#117
L
27-36
27
36
-9
A03/11
NCAA
Erskine
#421
W
44-28
44
28
+16
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#498
W
66-20
66
20
+46
H11/11
NCAA
North Florida
#331
L
29-35
29
35
-6
A14/11
NCAA
73.7Avg total
38.0Scored
35.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.535.970.3-1.440%-
Last 30 at home (12)36.433.770.1+2.858%-
Last 30 away (18)33.237.370.5-4.228%-
Last 10 (10)38.035.773.7+2.330%-
Last 5 (5)39.631.070.6+8.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)31.939.871.8-7.921%-
vs Similar (6)34.526.761.2+7.883%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)44.031.875.8+12.260%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
North Carolina wins
0
Citadel wins
DateGameScore
14/12/22North Carolina v Citadel100-67
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HGeorgia70-78
11/11/26HWyoming76-63
07/11/26HWofford109-70
03/11/26HWestern Carolina80-72
19/03/26HVCU Rams78-82 OT
13/03/26HClemson79-80
07/03/26ADuke61-76
04/03/26HClemson67-63
01/03/26HVirginia Tech89-82
24/02/26HLouisville77-74
Citadellast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ANorth Florida77-74
11/11/26HVirginia-Lynchburg131-50
07/11/26HErskine100-57
03/11/26ALoyola Chicago52-77
07/03/26AEast Tennessee St76-83
06/03/26AChattanooga Mocs88-85
28/02/26AWofford93-90 OT
25/02/26AFurman51-72
21/02/26HChattanooga Mocs72-93
20/02/26HSamford75-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Carolina
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWWWL75%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %75%75%-
Points / game83.883.8-
Allowed / game70.870.8-
Point differential+13.0+13.0-
Avg total154.5154.5-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Citadel
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game90.0115.564.5
Allowed / game64.553.575.5
Point differential+25.5+62.0-11.0
Avg total154.5169.0140.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 SMU Mustangs440100%92.067.5+24.5
2 Boston College330100%76.353.0+23.3
3 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
4 Virginia550100%91.869.6+22.2
5 Virginia Tech440100%89.867.8+22.0
6 NC State440100%83.862.2+21.5
7 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
8 Georgia Tech440100%82.570.8+11.8
9 California54180%85.874.8+11.0
10 Duke43175%90.057.0+33.0
11 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
12 Wake Forest43175%76.262.8+13.5
13 North Carolina43175%83.870.8+13.0
14 Stanford43175%78.569.2+9.2
15 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
16 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
17 Louisville32167%89.775.0+14.7
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Furman54180%88.068.8+19.2
2 Citadel43175%90.064.5+25.5
3 VMI53260%77.870.4+7.4
4 Western Carolina42250%89.874.5+15.2
5 NC Greensboro42250%81.070.8+10.2
6 Chattanooga Mocs42250%84.279.5+4.8
7 Wofford52340%82.482.0+0.4
8 Mercer52340%78.280.6-2.4
9 Samford31233%77.378.7-1.3
10 East Tennessee St31233%65.368.3-3.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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