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North Carolina vs Notre Dame Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 22 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 91-69
42-33 49-36
Position#45
Record14-4
FormWLWLL
Points / game81.9
Allowed / game69.6
North Carolina 🏆
USA
vs
Notre Dame
USA
Position#269
Record10-8
FormWLLLL
Points / game73.4
Allowed / game69.3
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · North Carolina v Notre Dame
21 Jan 2026
NORT91
NOTR69
12 Mar 2025
NORT76
NOTR56
05 Mar 2024
NORT84
NOTR51
07 Jan 2023
NORT81
NOTR64
10 Mar 2021
NORT101
NOTR59
30 Jan 2021
NORT v NOTR
upcoming
02 Jan 2021
NORT66
NOTR65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Carolina winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Notre Dame winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgetown
#225
W
81-61
81
61
+20
H07/12
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
80-62
80
62
+18
H13/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
77-58
77
58
+19
H17/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A20/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
99-51
99
51
+48
H23/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
79-66
79
66
+13
H31/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
83-97
83
97
-14
A03/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
87-84
87
84
+3
H10/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
90-95
90
95
-5
A15/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
78-84
78
84
-6
A17/01
NCAA
1H
2H
44-39
37-22
37-28
43-34
38-30
39-28
34-31
37-39
49-26
50-25
40-34
39-32
39-39
44-58
49-38
38-46
47-45
43-50
37-54
41-30
155.3Avg total
82.5Scored
72.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)81.969.6151.5+12.478%
Season at home (12)85.764.0149.7+21.7100%
Season away (6)74.580.7155.2-6.233%
Last 10 (10)82.572.8155.3+9.770%
Last 5 (5)83.485.2168.6-1.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)70.078.0148.0-8.00%
vs Similar (13)77.269.8147.1+7.469%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)87.969.1157.0+18.993%
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Notre DameUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Missouri
#111
W
76-71
76
71
+5
H03/12
NCAA
TCU
#77
W
87-85 OT
87
85
+2
A06/12
NCAA
Idaho
#136
W
80-65
80
65
+15
H11/12
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
82-58
82
58
+24
H13/12
NCAA
IPFW
#181
L
69-72
69
72
-3
H21/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
47-40
47
40
+7
A31/12
NCAA
California
#79
L
71-72
71
72
-1
A03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
61-76
61
76
-15
H10/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
69-81
69
81
-12
H14/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
76-89
76
89
-13
A17/01
NCAA
1H
2H
33-40
43-31
36-45
40-31
33-33
47-32
41-29
41-29
24-27
45-45
22-17
25-23
31-27
40-45
34-39
27-37
39-39
30-42
34-45
42-44
142.7Avg total
71.8Scored
70.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)73.469.3142.7+4.156%
Season at home (11)78.269.1147.3+9.173%
Season away (7)65.969.6135.4-3.729%
Last 10 (10)71.870.9142.7+0.950%
Last 5 (5)64.871.6136.4-6.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)66.872.8139.5-6.035%
vs Similar (10)79.171.4150.5+7.770%
vs Weaker (3)80.772.3153.0+8.367%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +5.0+5.01st half: -1.4-1.42nd half2nd half: +4.7+4.72nd half: +2.1+2.1
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +5.0+5.01st half: -1.4-1.42nd half2nd half: +4.7+4.72nd half: +2.1+2.1
North CarolinaNotre Dame
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgetown
#225
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H07/12
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
37-28
37
28
+9
H13/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H17/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A20/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
49-26
49
26
+23
H23/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H31/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A03/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H10/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A15/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
37-54
37
54
-17
A17/01
NCAA
77.8Avg total
41.4Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.234.074.2+6.373%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.631.674.2+11.088%-
Last 30 away (13)37.237.174.2+0.154%-
Last 10 (10)41.436.477.8+5.080%-
Last 5 (5)42.442.084.4+0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)33.044.077.0-11.00%-
vs Similar (13)36.533.770.2+2.854%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)44.432.977.3+11.5100%-
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Notre DameLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Missouri
#111
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H03/12
NCAA
TCU
#77
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A06/12
NCAA
Idaho
#136
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H11/12
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
41-29
41
29
+12
H13/12
NCAA
IPFW
#181
L
24-27
24
27
-3
H21/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
22-17
22
17
+5
A31/12
NCAA
California
#79
W
31-27
31
27
+4
A03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H10/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H14/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A17/01
NCAA
66.8Avg total
32.7Scored
34.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.932.964.8-1.043%-
Last 30 at home (18)32.831.464.2+1.450%-
Last 30 away (12)30.635.265.8-4.633%-
Last 10 (10)32.734.166.8-1.430%-
Last 5 (5)32.033.465.4-1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)30.636.266.8-5.524%-
vs Similar (10)32.827.660.4+5.270%-
vs Weaker (3)36.332.068.3+4.367%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
North Carolina wins
2
Notre Dame wins
DateGameScore
12/03/25North Carolina v Notre Dame76-56
04/01/25Notre Dame v North Carolina73-74
06/03/24North Carolina v Notre Dame84-51
23/02/23Notre Dame v North Carolina59-63
07/01/23North Carolina v Notre Dame81-64
06/01/22Notre Dame v North Carolina78-73
11/03/21North Carolina v Notre Dame101-59
02/01/21North Carolina v Notre Dame66-65
18/02/20Notre Dame v North Carolina77-76
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/01/26ACalifornia78-84
15/01/26AStanford90-95
10/01/26HWake Forest87-84
03/01/26ASMU Mustangs83-97
31/12/25HFlorida State79-66
23/12/25HEast Carolina99-51
20/12/25AOhio State71-70
17/12/25HEast Tennessee St77-58
13/12/25HUSC Upstate80-62
07/12/25HGeorgetown81-61
Notre Damelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/01/26AVirginia Tech76-89
14/01/26HMiami (FL)69-81
10/01/26HClemson61-76
03/01/26ACalifornia71-72
31/12/25AStanford47-40
21/12/25HIPFW69-72
13/12/25HEvansville82-58
11/12/25HIdaho80-65
06/12/25ATCU87-85 OT
03/12/25HMissouri76-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Carolina
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL78%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWLLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18126
Win %78%100%33%
Points / game81.985.774.5
Allowed / game69.664.080.7
Point differential+12.4+21.7-6.2
Avg total151.5149.7155.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+61%92%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Notre Dame
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL56%
HomeWWLLL73%
AwayLWWLL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18117
Win %56%73%29%
Points / game73.478.265.9
Allowed / game69.369.169.6
Point differential+4.1+9.1-3.7
Avg total142.7147.3135.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%45%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)67% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %6%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1817194%85.565.1+20.4
2 Virginia1916384%82.469.1+13.3
3 Clemson2016480%77.165.2+11.8
4 Miami (FL)1915479%84.968.9+16.0
5 North Carolina1814478%81.969.6+12.4
6 SMU Mustangs1914574%87.576.8+10.6
7 California1914574%78.870.5+8.3
8 Virginia Tech1914574%82.374.1+8.3
9 Stanford1914574%76.572.2+4.3
10 Louisville1813572%87.969.6+18.4
11 NC State1913668%85.571.8+13.7
12 Syracuse1812667%75.767.7+8.1
13 Wake Forest1911858%80.975.8+5.1
14 Georgia Tech1911858%75.673.1+2.5
15 Notre Dame1810856%73.469.3+4.1
16 Pittsburgh1881044%73.371.1+2.2
17 Boston College1881044%68.668.5+0.1
18 Florida State1981142%81.480.4+1.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
North Carolina424991
Notre Dame333669
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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