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Ourense vs Estela Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 67-72
22-11 12-19 15-24 18-18
Position#11
Record11-15
FormLLWLL
Points / game80.1
Allowed / game81.3
vs
Estela 🏆
Spain
Position#12
Record10-16
FormWLWLL
Points / game78.1
Allowed / game84.2
SpainPrimera FEBRound 29
Other2025-26
Meetings · Ourense v Estela
10 Oct 2026
OURE86
ESTE101
11 Apr 2026
OURE67
ESTE72
12 Oct 2024
OURE93
ESTE65
14 Apr 2024
OURE65
ESTE72
29 Oct 2022
OURE66
ESTE79
06 Apr 2022
OURE70
ESTE76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ourense winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Estela winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Ourense
4.2out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Below their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 81.1
71.4▼ 9.7
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 81.9
81.8▼ 0.1
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 49%
47%▼ 2%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 14.2
12.4▼ 1.8
🔥 Form · Estela
5.1out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Around their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 78.8
78.4▼ 0.4
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 83.5
81.2▼ 2.3
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 56%
56%▲ 0%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 14.7
15.4▲ 0.7
OurenseSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fuenlabrada
#6
L
71-78
71
78
-7
A04/02
Primera FEB
Alicante
#10
W
81-75
81
75
+6
H07/02
Primera FEB
Cartagena
#16
L
80-81
80
81
-1
A11/02
Primera FEB
Estudiantes
#4
W
103-97
103
97
+6
H14/02
Primera FEB
Fibwi Palma
#14
W
81-69
81
69
+12
H21/02
Primera FEB
Gipuzkoa
#7
L
79-81
79
81
-2
A07/03
Primera FEB
Leyma Coruna
#2
L
59-74
59
74
-15
H11/03
Primera FEB
Tizona Burgos
#13
W
79-77
79
77
+2
H14/03
Primera FEB
Zamora
#9
L
84-105
84
105
-21
H28/03
Primera FEB
Palmer Basket
#15
L
56-72
56
72
-16
A05/04
Primera FEB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-23
19-13
15-24
10-18
18-25
16-15
25-21
22-14
19-18
18-23
28-27
15-13
27-16
27-33
17-23
32-25
19-16
17-18
21-15
24-20
19-20
22-20
15-23
23-18
10-17
23-20
15-19
11-18
23-25
17-20
17-19
22-13
19-21
21-28
19-33
25-23
16-14
13-14
8-28
19-16
158.2Avg total
77.3Scored
80.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)80.181.3161.4-1.242%
Season at home (13)83.480.0163.4+3.469%
Season away (13)76.882.6159.5-5.815%
Last 10 (10)77.380.9158.2-3.640%
Last 5 (5)71.481.8153.2-10.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)81.385.6166.9-4.436%
vs Similar (11)80.781.3162.0-0.545%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)80.677.4158.0+3.250%
This opponent (Estela) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EstelaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cartagena
#16
W
78-72
78
72
+6
H31/01
Primera FEB
Hestia Menorca
#8
L
81-89
81
89
-8
A07/02
Primera FEB
Oviedo
#5
L
79-87
79
87
-8
H11/02
Primera FEB
Gipuzkoa
#7
W
91-90
91
90
+1
H15/02
Primera FEB
Melilla
#17
L
77-83
77
83
-6
A22/02
Primera FEB
Fibwi Palma
#14
W
73-68
73
68
+5
A08/03
Primera FEB
Palmer Basket
#15
L
83-86
83
86
-3
A15/03
Primera FEB
Estudiantes
#4
W
80-78
80
78
+2
H21/03
Primera FEB
Tizona Burgos
#13
L
77-86
77
86
-9
A27/03
Primera FEB
Leyma Coruna
#2
L
79-88
79
88
-9
H04/04
Primera FEB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-16
15-25
24-12
15-19
16-34
22-17
22-21
21-17
18-26
23-23
23-7
15-31
34-20
15-26
20-15
22-29
22-23
22-17
16-21
17-22
20-24
14-11
20-14
19-19
19-24
20-19
19-18
25-25
18-21
18-19
19-23
25-15
25-27
25-19
19-20
8-20
15-20
21-21
16-22
27-25
162.5Avg total
79.8Scored
82.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)78.184.2162.3-6.138%
Season at home (13)78.282.2160.4-3.954%
Season away (13)78.086.2164.2-8.223%
Last 10 (10)79.882.7162.5-2.940%
Last 5 (5)78.481.2159.6-2.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)78.988.9167.8-9.933%
vs Similar (12)78.275.6153.8+2.658%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Ourense) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -2.4-2.4Q2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -5.2-5.2Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: -2.8-2.8
OurenseEstela
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
OurenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fuenlabrada
#6
W
46-36
46
36
+10
A04/02
Primera FEB
Alicante
#10
L
34-40
34
40
-6
H07/02
Primera FEB
Cartagena
#16
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A11/02
Primera FEB
Estudiantes
#4
W
54-49
54
49
+5
H14/02
Primera FEB
Fibwi Palma
#14
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H21/02
Primera FEB
Gipuzkoa
#7
W
41-40
41
40
+1
A07/03
Primera FEB
Leyma Coruna
#2
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H11/03
Primera FEB
Tizona Burgos
#13
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H14/03
Primera FEB
Zamora
#9
L
40-49
40
49
-9
H28/03
Primera FEB
Palmer Basket
#15
W
29-28
29
28
+1
A05/04
Primera FEB
78.9Avg total
39.0Scored
39.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.339.982.2+2.460%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.440.583.9+2.960%-
Last 30 away (15)41.239.480.6+1.860%-
Last 10 (10)39.039.978.9-0.950%-
Last 5 (5)36.639.876.4-3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)42.943.186.0-0.255%-
vs Similar (11)42.339.882.1+2.564%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)41.535.877.2+5.862%-
This opponent (Estela) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EstelaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cartagena
#16
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H31/01
Primera FEB
Hestia Menorca
#8
L
38-51
38
51
-13
A07/02
Primera FEB
Oviedo
#5
L
41-49
41
49
-8
H11/02
Primera FEB
Gipuzkoa
#7
W
49-46
49
46
+3
H15/02
Primera FEB
Melilla
#17
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A22/02
Primera FEB
Fibwi Palma
#14
L
34-35
34
35
-1
A08/03
Primera FEB
Palmer Basket
#15
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A15/03
Primera FEB
Estudiantes
#4
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H21/03
Primera FEB
Tizona Burgos
#13
W
50-46
50
46
+4
A27/03
Primera FEB
Leyma Coruna
#2
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H04/04
Primera FEB
83.8Avg total
40.6Scored
43.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.042.182.2-2.137%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.940.980.8-1.140%-
Last 30 away (15)40.243.383.5-3.133%-
Last 10 (10)40.643.283.8-2.630%-
Last 5 (5)39.041.080.0-2.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)39.145.684.7-6.428%-
vs Similar (12)41.437.078.4+4.450%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Ourense) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Ourensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ourense: 75.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.9 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.7 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
45%
36%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.418.4
41.5%
51.5%36.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.67.2
32.0%
33.9%21.7
🏀 Free throws22.816.8
73.7%
73.4%16.8
They take 67.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Estelatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Estela: 76.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.3 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
45%
36%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.618.9
56.3%
51.5%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.17.4
28.5%
33.9%22.3
🏀 Free throws20.316.2
79.8%
73.4%16.2
They take 59.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 9/9 games with a box score before 11 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Ourense
LLWLLWWLWL
Estela
LLWLWLWLLW
#11
League position
#12
-8.6
Net rating
-8.1
101.9
Offensive rating
107.5
110.5
Defensive rating
115.7
43.7%
Effective FG%
50.4%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
52.3%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.34
32.0%
3-point %
28.5%
55.4%
Assist %
55.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence101.9 · 107.5Defence110.5 · 115.7Shooting43.7% · 50.4%3-point %32.0% · 28.5%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.34 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Ourense   ■ Estela
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Ourense wins
7
Estela wins
DateGameScore
25/10/25Estela v Ourense87-66
26/04/25Estela v Ourense86-77
12/10/24Ourense v Estela93-65
14/04/24Ourense v Estela65-72
14/10/23Estela v Ourense76-80 OT
05/03/23Estela v Ourense75-69
29/10/22Ourense v Estela66-79
06/04/22Ourense v Estela70-76
12/01/22Estela v Ourense69-56
Ourenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/04/26APalmer Basket56-72
28/03/26HZamora84-105
14/03/26HTizona Burgos79-77
11/03/26HLeyma Coruna59-74
07/03/26AGipuzkoa79-81
21/02/26HFibwi Palma81-69
14/02/26HEstudiantes103-97
11/02/26ACartagena80-81
07/02/26HAlicante81-75
04/02/26AFuenlabrada71-78
Estelalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/04/26HLeyma Coruna79-88
27/03/26ATizona Burgos77-86
21/03/26HEstudiantes80-78
15/03/26APalmer Basket83-86
08/03/26AFibwi Palma73-68
22/02/26AMelilla77-83
15/02/26HGipuzkoa91-90
11/02/26HOviedo79-87
07/02/26AHestia Menorca81-89
31/01/26HCartagena78-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ourense
Primera FEB 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL42%
HomeWWLWL69%
AwayLLLLL15%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261313
Win %42%69%15%
Points / game80.183.476.8
Allowed / game81.380.082.6
Point differential-1.2+3.4-5.8
Avg total161.4163.4159.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%31%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)75% (4)0% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Estela
Primera FEB 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL38%
HomeWLWWL54%
AwayLLWLL23%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261313
Win %38%54%23%
Points / game78.178.278.0
Allowed / game84.282.286.2
Point differential-6.1-3.9-8.2
Avg total162.3160.4164.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%15%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (8)80% (5)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Leyma Coruna2725293%91.578.0+13.5
2 Obradoiro CAB2623388%92.175.7+16.4
3 Palencia2720774%82.872.4+10.4
4 Estudiantes27171063%85.180.9+4.3
5 Oviedo27161159%82.978.6+4.3
6 Gipuzkoa26151158%78.774.7+4.0
7 Hestia Menorca26141254%81.176.8+4.3
8 Alicante27141352%83.081.9+1.1
9 Fuenlabrada27141352%79.681.9-2.3
10 Zamora26121446%83.986.7-2.8
11 Ourense26111542%80.181.3-1.2
12 Estela26101638%78.184.2-6.1
13 Fibwi Palma2691735%76.482.7-6.3
14 Palmer Basket2671927%72.983.6-10.7
15 Cartagena2671927%73.584.9-11.5
16 Tizona Burgos2862221%81.589.2-7.7
17 Melilla2652119%75.385.8-10.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Ourense2212151867
Estela1119241872
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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