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Paulistano vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Dec 2024
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 80-76
24-15 19-29 21-18 16-14
Position#12
Record7-10
FormWWWLL
Points / game77.7
Allowed / game75.6
vs
Position#13
Record10-7
FormWLWWL
Points / game78.9
Allowed / game78.3
BrazilNBB· Ginasio Antonio Prado Jr
Other2024-25
Meetings · Paulistano v Sao Paulo
28 Dec 2024
PAUL80
SAO 76
02 Nov 2023
PAUL71
SAO 52
11 Apr 2023
PAUL99
SAO 57
23 Dec 2021
PAUL60
SAO 75
13 Feb 2021
PAUL63
SAO 71
14 Dec 2019
PAUL92
SAO 98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paulistano winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PaulistanoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulistano
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
W
75-62
75
62
+13
72avg 70
A08/11
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
49-66
49
66
-17
34avg 70
A11/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
86-69
86
69
+17
79avg 70
A14/11
NBB
Pato
#14
L
65-66
65
66
-1
52avg 70
A17/11
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
70-76
70
76
-6
63avg 70
H04/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
78-65
78
65
+13
73avg 70
H10/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
82-72
82
72
+10
83avg 70
H12/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
102-87
102
87
+15
105avg 70
A18/12
NBB
Minas
#1
L
82-86
82
86
-4
73avg 70
A20/12
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
75-89
75
89
-14
63avg 70
H23/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-14
16-11
19-18
19-19
15-19
16-15
9-14
9-18
27-21
15-14
27-19
17-15
15-15
20-21
9-12
21-18
16-15
12-16
23-23
19-22
16-15
14-16
23-15
25-19
20-17
17-19
20-17
25-19
32-21
22-27
24-22
24-17
27-24
20-18
20-21
15-23
18-30
27-18
10-27
20-14
150.2Avg total
76.4Scored
73.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)77.775.6153.4+2.141%
Season at home (9)79.076.9155.9+2.144%
Season away (8)76.274.2150.5+2.038%
Last 10 (10)76.473.8150.2+2.650%
Last 5 (5)83.879.8163.6+4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)74.984.1159.0-9.30%
vs Similar ◀ (13)78.372.1150.4+6.254%
vs Weaker (10)79.865.7145.5+14.170%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Flamengo
#3
W
77-75
77
75
+2
68avg 76
H07/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
68-79
68
79
-11
52avg 76
A11/11
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
80-79 OT
80
79
+1
72avg 76
A14/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
84-88
84
88
-4
79avg 76
A17/11
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
84-87
84
87
-3
83avg 76
H06/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
89-79
89
79
+10
91avg 76
H10/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
70-80
70
80
-10
55avg 76
H12/12
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
82-71
82
71
+11
74avg 76
H15/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
85-83
85
83
+2
76avg 76
A21/12
NBB
Minas
#1
L
63-77
63
77
-14
58avg 76
A23/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-18
13-18
20-17
19-22
10-15
13-25
23-20
22-19
17-13
20-16
15-24
21-20
15-22
21-23
26-20
22-23
23-21
17-12
21-22
23-32
15-21
17-18
28-19
29-21
12-25
20-20
21-19
17-16
27-19
18-14
20-25
17-13
30-23
27-25
13-21
15-14
21-14
19-13
13-24
10-26
158.0Avg total
78.2Scored
79.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)78.978.3157.2+0.659%
Season at home (9)79.776.2155.9+3.467%
Season away (8)78.080.6158.6-2.650%
Last 10 (10)78.279.8158.0-1.650%
Last 5 (5)77.878.0155.8-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)81.383.4164.7-2.157%
vs Similar ◀ (11)78.879.4158.2-0.555%
vs Weaker (5)83.478.6162.0+4.860%
This opponent (Paulistano) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -1.1-1.1
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -1.1-1.1
PaulistanoSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PaulistanoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
W
37-25
37
25
+12
A08/11
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A11/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
42-35
42
35
+7
A14/11
NBB
Pato
#14
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A17/11
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
28-31
28
31
-3
H04/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
30-31
30
31
-1
H10/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H12/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
54-48
54
48
+6
A18/12
NBB
Minas
#1
W
47-42
47
42
+5
A20/12
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
45-48
45
48
-3
H23/12
NBB
75.2Avg total
38.6Scored
36.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.636.876.4+2.847%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.236.977.1+3.250%-
Last 30 away (14)39.036.675.6+2.443%-
Last 10 (10)38.636.675.2+2.050%-
Last 5 (5)42.641.083.6+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)39.743.483.1-3.729%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)38.835.974.8+2.938%-
vs Weaker (10)40.633.373.9+7.370%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Flamengo
#3
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H07/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
23-40
23
40
-17
A11/11
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
37-29
37
29
+8
A14/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A17/11
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H06/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H10/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
32-45
32
45
-13
H12/12
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H15/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
57-48
57
48
+9
A21/12
NBB
Minas
#1
W
40-27
40
27
+13
A23/12
NBB
75.5Avg total
38.0Scored
37.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.439.679.0-0.247%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.738.679.4+2.157%-
Last 30 away (16)38.240.478.6-2.238%-
Last 10 (10)38.037.575.5+0.560%-
Last 5 (5)41.238.479.6+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)39.540.379.8-0.843%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)38.340.578.8-2.336%-
vs Weaker (5)41.435.677.0+5.880%-
This opponent (Paulistano) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Paulistanotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Paulistano: 75.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.617.6
49.4%
50.9%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.28.7
34.5%
33.0%26.1
🏀 Free throws18.213.9
76.4%
72.7%13.9
They take 60.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 77.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.419.5
56.7%
50.9%39.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.48.3
30.3%
33.0%24.9
🏀 Free throws19.513.3
68.2%
72.7%13.3
They take 61.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Dec 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Paulistano
LLWWWLLWLW
Sao Paulo
LWWLWLLWLW
#12
League position
#13
+2.8
Net rating
-2.4
107.0
Offensive rating
103.2
104.1
Defensive rating
105.6
50.4%
Effective FG%
51.7%
48.9%
Opp. effective FG%
49.1%
18.4%
Turnover %
18.1%
31.3%
Off. rebound %
25.7%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.32
34.5%
3-point %
30.3%
58.6%
Assist %
58.6%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence107.0 · 103.2Defence104.1 · 105.6Shooting50.4% · 51.7%3-point %34.5% · 30.3%Ball care18.4% · 18.1%Off. rebounds31.3% · 25.7%Free throws0.30 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Paulistano   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Paulistano wins
7
Sao Paulo wins
Paulistanolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/12/24HFlamengo75-89
20/12/24AMinas82-86
18/12/24ABrasilia102-87
12/12/24HCaxias do Sul82-72
10/12/24HUniao Corinthians78-65
04/12/24HVasco70-76
17/11/24APato65-66
14/11/24AUnifacisa86-69
11/11/24ACearense49-66
08/11/24ASao Jose75-62
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/12/24AMinas63-77
21/12/24ABrasilia85-83
15/12/24HBotafogo82-71
12/12/24HUniao Corinthians70-80
10/12/24HCaxias do Sul89-79
06/12/24HVasco84-87
17/11/24AUnifacisa84-88
14/11/24ACearense80-79 OT
11/11/24ASao Jose68-79
07/11/24HFlamengo77-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Paulistano
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL41%
HomeLLWWL44%
AwayLWLWL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1798
Win %41%44%38%
Points / game77.779.076.2
Allowed / game75.676.974.2
Point differential+2.1+2.1+2.0
Avg total153.4155.9150.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+41%44%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (5)0% (1)0% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL59%
HomeWLWLW67%
AwayLWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1798
Win %59%67%50%
Points / game78.979.778.0
Allowed / game78.376.280.6
Point differential+0.6+3.4-2.6
Avg total157.2155.9158.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%44%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (8)67% (3)60% (5)
Overtime %6%0%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas1816289%82.869.8+13.0
2 Flamengo1814478%84.172.7+11.4
3 Brasilia1812667%84.281.7+2.6
4 Franca1811761%81.577.5+4.0
5 Vasco1710759%74.672.1+2.5
6 Sao Paulo1710759%78.978.3+0.6
7 Pinheiros1810856%76.375.3+1.0
8 Uniao Corinthians1810856%78.179.0-0.9
9 Bauru1810856%78.879.9-1.2
10 Sao Jose1881044%75.775.5+0.2
11 Unifacisa1881044%75.076.7-1.7
12 Paulistano1771041%77.775.6+2.1
13 Pato1871139%83.085.3-2.3
14 Corinthians Paulista1761135%79.481.4-2.0
15 Mogi1861233%73.179.6-6.6
16 Botafogo1861233%73.180.9-7.8
17 Caxias do Sul1851328%72.679.2-6.6
18 Cearense1841422%69.177.1-8.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Paulistano2419211680
Sao Paulo1529181476
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