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Cearense vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 14 Nov 2024
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 79-80 (OT)
13-17 16-20 24-15 20-21 6-7
Position#17
Record2-7
FormLLLLW
Points / game64.9
Allowed / game74.3
vs
Position#13
Record6-3
FormWLLWL
Points / game78.2
Allowed / game76.3
BrazilNBB· Centro de Formacao Olimpica
Other2024-25
Meetings · Cearense v Sao Paulo
14 Nov 2024
CEAR79
SAO 80
13 Jan 2024
CEAR75
SAO 81
08 Dec 2022
CEAR81
SAO 111
04 Nov 2021
CEAR68
SAO 81
23 Dec 2020
CEAR92
SAO 85
17 Mar 2020
CEAR v SAO
upcoming
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cearense winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Flamengo
#2
L
68-83
68
83
-15
57avg 68
H09/05
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
76-68
76
68
+8
66avg 68
H15/10
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
70-79
70
79
-9
65avg 68
H18/10
NBB
Pato
#14
L
60-89
60
89
-29
44avg 68
A22/10
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
52-77
52
77
-25
40avg 68
H27/10
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
56-78
56
78
-22
38avg 68
H29/10
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
68-70
68
70
-2
67avg 68
H01/11
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
72-73
72
73
-1
68avg 68
A05/11
NBB
Minas
#1
L
64-86
64
86
-22
44avg 68
A07/11
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
66-49
66
49
+17
61avg 68
H11/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-25
8-24
21-16
21-18
15-18
18-17
25-13
18-20
19-16
11-24
18-22
22-17
11-23
15-25
19-21
15-20
10-17
17-20
11-22
14-18
23-21
11-25
9-14
13-18
18-14
16-13
22-26
12-17
25-20
14-19
14-17
19-17
10-25
10-24
16-21
28-16
19-15
15-16
14-9
18-9
140.4Avg total
65.2Scored
75.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)64.974.3139.2-9.422%
Season at home (6)64.770.2134.8-5.533%
Season away (3)65.382.7148.0-17.30%
Last 10 (10)65.275.2140.4-10.020%
Last 5 (5)65.271.2136.4-6.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)68.376.6144.9-8.320%
vs Similar ◀ (12)74.476.8151.2-2.358%
vs Weaker (7)82.075.4157.4+6.671%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Minas
#3
L
67-98
67
98
-31
54avg 75
A13/05
NBB
Pato
#14
W
88-81
88
81
+7
83avg 75
A17/10
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#8
W
82-80
82
80
+2
78avg 75
A19/10
NBB
Franca
#2
W
82-66
82
66
+16
75avg 75
H22/10
NBB
Bauru
#4
W
78-68
78
68
+10
70avg 75
H26/10
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
86-84
86
84
+2
86avg 75
H30/10
NBB
Mogi
#16
L
74-78
74
78
-4
69avg 75
A01/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
69-76
69
76
-7
70avg 75
H05/11
NBB
Flamengo
#3
W
77-75
77
75
+2
68avg 75
H07/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
68-79
68
79
-11
52avg 75
A11/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-22
18-22
17-28
19-26
23-30
22-16
19-25
24-10
20-15
20-26
19-20
23-19
21-14
16-22
22-18
23-12
19-22
17-21
23-16
19-9
24-27
22-19
16-16
24-22
19-14
19-17
19-24
17-23
10-22
20-13
24-22
15-19
25-18
13-18
20-17
19-22
10-15
13-25
23-20
22-19
155.6Avg total
77.1Scored
78.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)78.276.3154.6+1.967%
Season at home (5)78.473.8152.2+4.680%
Season away (4)78.079.5157.5-1.550%
Last 10 (10)77.178.5155.6-1.460%
Last 5 (5)74.878.4153.2-3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)83.884.2168.0-0.462%
vs Similar ◀ (8)78.177.5155.6+0.662%
vs Weaker (6)78.375.5153.8+2.850%
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -2.6-2.6Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: -7.2-7.2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +2.4+2.4
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -2.6-2.6Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: -7.2-7.2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +2.4+2.4
CearenseSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Flamengo
#2
L
26-49
26
49
-23
H09/05
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H15/10
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
30-40
30
40
-10
H18/10
NBB
Pato
#14
L
26-48
26
48
-22
A22/10
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
27-37
27
37
-10
H27/10
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
34-46
34
46
-12
H29/10
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H01/11
NBB
Brasilia
#6
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A05/11
NBB
Minas
#1
L
20-49
20
49
-29
A07/11
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H11/11
NBB
70.4Avg total
30.3Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.238.773.9-3.640%-
Last 30 at home (17)33.837.371.1-3.541%-
Last 30 away (13)36.940.677.5-3.738%-
Last 10 (10)30.340.170.4-9.820%-
Last 5 (5)32.238.470.6-6.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)33.241.774.9-8.530%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)32.837.370.1-4.625%-
vs Weaker (7)42.135.978.0+6.386%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minas
#3
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A13/05
NBB
Pato
#14
L
45-46
45
46
-1
A17/10
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A19/10
NBB
Franca
#2
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H22/10
NBB
Bauru
#4
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H26/10
NBB
Paulistano
#12
D
46-46
46
46
+0
H30/10
NBB
Mogi
#16
W
38-31
38
31
+7
A01/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H05/11
NBB
Flamengo
#3
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H07/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
23-40
23
40
-17
A11/11
NBB
76.2Avg total
36.4Scored
39.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.040.380.4-0.343%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.038.480.4+3.660%-
Last 30 away (15)38.142.380.3-4.227%-
Last 10 (10)36.439.876.2-3.430%-
Last 5 (5)35.037.672.6-2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)40.841.482.1-0.644%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)38.041.479.4-3.425%-
vs Weaker (6)40.836.277.0+4.767%-
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 64.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.2 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.518.2
48.5%
50.9%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.46.0
25.6%
33.0%18.0
🏀 Free throws15.010.2
68.0%
72.7%10.2
They take 60.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 76.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.318.3
50.4%
50.9%36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.87.6
30.6%
33.0%22.8
🏀 Free throws21.116.9
80.1%
72.7%16.9
They take 61.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cearense
WLLLLLLLWL
Sao Paulo
LWLLWWWWWL
#17
League position
#13
-12.8
Net rating
-1.9
90.0
Offensive rating
103.4
102.8
Defensive rating
105.3
44.7%
Effective FG%
48.6%
48.6%
Opp. effective FG%
47.6%
21.6%
Turnover %
18.1%
29.5%
Off. rebound %
28.7%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.35
25.6%
3-point %
30.6%
47.9%
Assist %
61.8%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence90.0 · 103.4Defence102.8 · 105.3Shooting44.7% · 48.6%3-point %25.6% · 30.6%Ball care21.6% · 18.1%Off. rebounds29.5% · 28.7%Free throws0.25 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)20% · 60%
■ Cearense   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Cearense wins
7
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
13/01/24Cearense v Sao Paulo75-81
06/11/23Sao Paulo v Cearense70-86
04/02/23Sao Paulo v Cearense85-70
08/12/22Cearense v Sao Paulo81-111
07/02/22Sao Paulo v Cearense73-62
04/11/21Cearense v Sao Paulo68-81
13/03/21Sao Paulo v Cearense98-76
23/12/20Cearense v Sao Paulo92-85
30/11/19Sao Paulo v Cearense92-73
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/24HPaulistano66-49
07/11/24AMinas64-86
05/11/24ABrasilia72-73
01/11/24HVasco68-70
29/10/24HFlamengo56-78
27/10/24HBotafogo52-77
22/10/24APato60-89
18/10/24HUniao Corinthians70-79
15/10/24HCaxias do Sul76-68
09/05/24HFlamengo68-83
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/24ASao Jose68-79
07/11/24HFlamengo77-75
05/11/24HPinheiros69-76
01/11/24AMogi74-78
30/10/24HPaulistano86-84
26/10/24HBauru78-68
22/10/24HFranca82-66
19/10/24ACorinthians Paulista82-80
17/10/24APato88-81
13/05/24AMinas67-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cearense
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW22%
HomeLLLLW33%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games963
Win %22%33%0%
Points / game64.964.765.3
Allowed / game74.370.282.7
Point differential-9.4-5.5-17.3
Avg total139.2134.8148.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%17%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL67%
HomeWWWLW80%
AwayWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %67%80%50%
Points / game78.278.478.0
Allowed / game76.373.879.5
Point differential+1.9+4.6-1.5
Avg total154.6152.2157.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas98189%82.369.0+13.3
2 Flamengo119282%80.966.5+14.4
3 Uniao Corinthians75271%79.777.9+1.9
4 Brasilia96367%82.480.0+2.4
5 Sao Paulo96367%78.276.3+1.9
6 Bauru85362%78.679.5-0.9
7 Franca106460%80.378.4+1.9
8 Vasco95456%71.068.6+2.4
9 Pinheiros95456%71.272.6-1.3
10 Corinthians Paulista94544%81.681.0+0.6
11 Caxias do Sul73443%71.776.4-4.7
12 Paulistano93633%75.775.1+0.6
13 Pato93633%78.679.8-1.2
14 Mogi93633%69.779.3-9.7
15 Botafogo103730%70.076.3-6.3
16 Unifacisa82625%76.279.2-3.0
17 Sao Jose92722%69.676.1-6.6
18 Cearense92722%64.974.3-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Cearense13162420679
Sao Paulo17201521780
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