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Minas vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 23 Dec 2024
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 77-63
14-21 13-19 24-13 26-10
Position#1
Record14-2
FormWLWWW
Points / game83.2
Allowed / game70.1
Minas 🏆
Brazil
vs
Position#13
Record10-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game79.9
Allowed / game78.4
BrazilNBB· Arena Minas Tenis Clube
Other2024-25
Meetings · Minas v Sao Paulo
25 Jan 2025
MINA82
SAO 66
23 Dec 2024
MINA77
SAO 63
13 May 2024
MINA98
SAO 67
11 May 2024
MINA104
SAO 79
03 May 2024
MINA84
SAO 59
15 Feb 2024
MINA86
SAO 94
14 Mar 2023
MINA87
SAO 76
07 Apr 2022
MINA79
SAO 93
31 Mar 2022
MINA61
SAO 82
22 Jan 2022
MINA78
SAO 77
10 May 2021
MINA70
SAO 88
13 Apr 2021
MINA75
SAO 58
19 Jan 2021
MINA70
SAO 78
19 Dec 2020
MINA96
SAO 92
07 Feb 2020
MINA85
SAO 87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MinasBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMinas
Date
Competition
Unifacisa
#11
W
78-76
78
76
+2
74avg 81
H11/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
89-71
89
71
+18
88avg 81
A14/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
78-58
78
58
+20
75avg 81
A16/11
NBB
Flamengo
#3
W
81-70
81
70
+11
74avg 81
A30/11
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
95-68
95
68
+27
103avg 81
A02/12
NBB
Pato
#14
W
97-70
97
70
+27
95avg 81
H05/12
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
64-81
64
81
-17
60avg 81
A09/12
NBB
Bigua
#10
W
73-60
73
60
+13
65avg 81
A14/12
Champions League Americas
Quimsa
#9
W
84-73
84
73
+11
76avg 81
A15/12
Champions League Americas
Paulistano
#12
W
86-82
86
82
+4
82avg 81
H20/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-19
22-20
19-27
18-10
18-24
27-18
27-13
17-16
17-16
22-10
21-19
18-13
19-21
17-14
21-23
24-12
25-13
21-19
20-20
29-16
30-19
22-19
23-14
22-18
14-23
9-13
21-21
20-24
17-18
20-9
22-16
14-17
21-31
18-14
20-17
25-11
24-27
18-20
21-20
23-15
153.4Avg total
82.5Scored
70.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)83.270.1153.2+13.188%
Season at home (7)86.169.0155.1+17.1100%
Season away (9)80.970.9151.8+10.078%
Last 10 (10)82.570.9153.4+11.690%
Last 5 (5)80.873.2154.0+7.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)77.380.1157.4-2.943%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)84.371.5155.8+12.887%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#5
L
69-76
69
76
-7
70avg 76
H05/11
NBB
Flamengo
#3
W
77-75
77
75
+2
68avg 76
H07/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
68-79
68
79
-11
52avg 76
A11/11
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
80-79 OT
80
79
+1
72avg 76
A14/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
84-88
84
88
-4
79avg 76
A17/11
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
84-87
84
87
-3
83avg 76
H06/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
89-79
89
79
+10
91avg 76
H10/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
70-80
70
80
-10
55avg 76
H12/12
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
82-71
82
71
+11
74avg 76
H15/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
85-83
85
83
+2
76avg 76
A21/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
10-22
20-13
24-22
15-19
25-18
13-18
20-17
19-22
10-15
13-25
23-20
22-19
17-13
20-16
15-24
21-20
15-22
21-23
26-20
22-23
23-21
17-12
21-22
23-32
15-21
17-18
28-19
29-21
12-25
20-20
21-19
17-16
27-19
18-14
20-25
17-13
30-23
27-25
13-21
15-14
158.5Avg total
78.8Scored
79.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)79.978.4158.2+1.562%
Season at home (9)79.776.2155.9+3.467%
Season away (7)80.181.1161.3-1.057%
Last 10 (10)78.879.7158.5-0.950%
Last 5 (5)82.080.0162.0+2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)82.484.2166.6-1.957%
vs Similar (11)78.879.4158.2-0.555%
vs Weaker (5)83.478.6162.0+4.860%
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: +4.0+4.0Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: +0.2+0.2Q4Q4: +5.8+5.8Q4: +0.1+0.1
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: +4.0+4.0Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: +0.2+0.2Q4Q4: +5.8+5.8Q4: +0.1+0.1
MinasSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MinasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Unifacisa
#11
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H11/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
45-42
45
42
+3
A14/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
39-26
39
26
+13
A16/11
NBB
Flamengo
#3
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A30/11
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
46-32
46
32
+14
A02/12
NBB
Pato
#14
W
52-38
52
38
+14
H05/12
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
23-36
23
36
-13
A09/12
NBB
Bigua
#10
W
37-27
37
27
+10
A14/12
Champions League Americas
Quimsa
#9
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A15/12
Champions League Americas
Paulistano
#12
L
42-47
42
47
-5
H20/12
NBB
76.7Avg total
40.0Scored
36.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.935.575.4+4.370%-
Last 30 at home (13)42.235.577.6+6.769%-
Last 30 away (17)38.135.673.7+2.571%-
Last 10 (10)40.036.776.7+3.370%-
Last 5 (5)38.638.677.2+0.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)35.937.973.7-2.057%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)41.134.875.9+6.374%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#5
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H05/11
NBB
Flamengo
#3
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H07/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
23-40
23
40
-17
A11/11
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
37-29
37
29
+8
A14/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A17/11
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H06/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H10/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
32-45
32
45
-13
H12/12
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H15/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
57-48
57
48
+9
A21/12
NBB
75.3Avg total
37.0Scored
38.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.540.479.9-0.943%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.738.679.4+2.157%-
Last 30 away (16)38.442.080.4-3.631%-
Last 10 (10)37.038.375.3-1.350%-
Last 5 (5)41.239.680.8+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)39.842.181.9-2.336%-
vs Similar (11)38.340.578.8-2.336%-
vs Weaker (5)41.435.677.0+5.880%-
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Minastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minas: 81.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.421.5
51.9%
50.9%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.38.4
36.1%
33.0%25.2
🏀 Free throws18.412.9
70.1%
72.7%12.9
They take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 78.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.319.9
56.4%
50.9%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.38.2
31.2%
33.0%24.6
🏀 Free throws19.513.6
69.7%
72.7%13.6
They take 61.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Dec 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Minas
WWWLWWWWWW
Sao Paulo
WWLWLLWLWL
#1
League position
#13
+14.5
Net rating
-0.9
108.9
Offensive rating
103.6
94.4
Defensive rating
104.6
52.7%
Effective FG%
52.3%
45.6%
Opp. effective FG%
49.6%
19.1%
Turnover %
18.2%
35.7%
Off. rebound %
24.8%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.32
36.1%
3-point %
31.2%
61.5%
Assist %
60.9%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence108.9 · 103.6Defence94.4 · 104.6Shooting52.7% · 52.3%3-point %36.1% · 31.2%Ball care19.1% · 18.2%Off. rebounds35.7% · 24.8%Free throws0.28 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)90% · 50%
■ Minas   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Minas wins
5
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
13/05/24Minas v Sao Paulo98-67
11/05/24Minas v Sao Paulo104-79
08/05/24Sao Paulo v Minas86-84
06/05/24Sao Paulo v Minas105-74
03/05/24Minas v Sao Paulo84-59
15/02/24Minas v Sao Paulo86-94
23/11/23Sao Paulo v Minas75-83
14/03/23Minas v Sao Paulo87-76
27/12/22Sao Paulo v Minas100-83
07/04/22Minas v Sao Paulo79-93
Minaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/12/24HPaulistano86-82
15/12/24AQuimsa84-73
14/12/24ABigua73-60
09/12/24AVasco64-81
05/12/24HPato97-70
02/12/24ABotafogo95-68
30/11/24AFlamengo81-70
16/11/24ACaxias do Sul78-58
14/11/24AUniao Corinthians89-71
11/11/24HUnifacisa78-76
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/12/24ABrasilia85-83
15/12/24HBotafogo82-71
12/12/24HUniao Corinthians70-80
10/12/24HCaxias do Sul89-79
06/12/24HVasco84-87
17/11/24AUnifacisa84-88
14/11/24ACearense80-79 OT
11/11/24ASao Jose68-79
07/11/24HFlamengo77-75
05/11/24HPinheiros69-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Minas
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW88%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWWWL78%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1679
Win %88%100%78%
Points / game83.286.180.9
Allowed / game70.169.070.9
Point differential+13.1+17.1+10.0
Avg total153.2155.1151.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%57%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %6%0%11%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW62%
HomeWLWLW67%
AwayLLWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %62%67%57%
Points / game79.979.780.1
Allowed / game78.476.281.1
Point differential+1.5+3.4-1.0
Avg total158.2155.9161.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%44%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (8)67% (3)60% (5)
Overtime %6%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas1614288%83.270.1+13.1
2 Flamengo1613381%83.971.5+12.4
3 Brasilia1711665%83.881.4+2.4
4 Franca1610662%80.976.9+4.0
5 Pinheiros1610662%75.974.1+1.8
6 Sao Paulo1610662%79.978.4+1.5
7 Bauru1610662%80.179.7+0.4
8 Vasco169756%74.272.7+1.5
9 Uniao Corinthians169756%78.279.6-1.4
10 Paulistano167944%77.974.8+3.1
11 Sao Jose1771041%74.975.1-0.2
12 Unifacisa1771041%74.976.8-1.9
13 Corinthians Paulista1661038%79.481.4-2.1
14 Pato1761135%82.685.3-2.7
15 Mogi1761135%72.478.6-6.2
16 Botafogo1651131%71.680.3-8.8
17 Cearense1741324%69.177.4-8.3
18 Caxias do Sul1631319%72.179.8-7.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Minas1413242677
Sao Paulo2119131063
← all games of the day
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