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Penarol vs Obera TC Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 13 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#2
Record7-1
FormWLWWW
Points / game82.1
Allowed / game74.8
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.8/10
Around normal
3.8/10
Below normal
Position#10
Record3-4
FormLLWWW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game83.1
ArgentinaLiga A· Polideportivo Islas Malvinas
Other2026-27
Meetings · Penarol v Obera TC
13 Dec 2026
PENA v OBER
upcoming
22 Nov 2025
PENA71
OBER87
14 Oct 2024
PENA78
OBER97
11 Apr 2024
PENA74
OBER57
18 Dec 2022
PENA68
OBER71
03 Nov 2021
PENA68
OBER86
19 Dec 2020
PENA74
OBER68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Obera TC win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PenarolArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Ferro
#6
W
87-75
87
75
+12
83avg 75
H01/05
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
68-84
68
84
-16
61avg 75
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#3
W
62-57
62
57
+5
54avg 75
H30/09
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
84-77
84
77
+7
77avg 75
A14/10
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#17
W
92-85
92
85
+7
87avg 75
A17/10
Liga A
San Martin
#18
W
95-76
95
76
+19
86avg 75
H28/10
Liga A
Quimsa
#1
L
73-78
73
78
-5
no box
A31/10
Liga A
Olimpico
#8
W
87-74
87
74
+13
no box
A03/11
Liga A
Platense
#11
W
79-75
79
75
+4
no box
A11/11
Liga A
Ferro
#16
W
85-76
85
76
+9
no box
A13/11
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-20
18-23
25-21
22-11
19-22
23-26
10-22
16-14
17-14
13-15
14-6
18-22
18-26
27-17
26-23
13-11
28-22
17-22
26-18
21-23
23-11
25-21
24-25
23-19
19-15
11-23
20-21
23-19
20-17
23-18
24-23
20-16
19-17
29-24
16-15
15-19
22-20
13-19
15-18
35-19
156.9Avg total
81.2Scored
75.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)82.174.8156.9+7.488%
Season at home (2)78.566.5145.0+12.0100%
Season away (6)83.377.5160.8+5.883%
Last 10 (10)81.275.7156.9+5.580%
Last 5 (5)83.875.8159.6+8.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)71.581.0152.5-9.550%
vs Similar (19)82.580.7163.2+1.847%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)82.076.6158.6+5.478%
This opponent (Obera TC) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Obera TCArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTC
Date
Competition
Boca Juniors
#2
L
66-70
66
70
-4
54avg 72
H09/05
Liga A
Boca Juniors
#2
L
80-102
80
102
-22
70avg 72
H11/05
Liga A
Boca Juniors
#2
L
78-86
78
86
-8
67avg 72
A15/05
Liga A
Boca Juniors
#6
L
73-96
73
96
-23
62avg 72
A08/10
Liga A
Lanus
#12
L
58-67
58
67
-9
51avg 72
A09/10
Liga A
Racing de Chivilcoy
#13
L
78-84
78
84
-6
68avg 72
H14/10
Liga A
Platense
#11
L
80-86
80
86
-6
70avg 72
A16/10
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#17
W
78-73
78
73
+5
no box
A18/10
Liga A
Argentino
#9
W
98-84
98
84
+14
no box
H06/11
Liga A
Gimnasia
#3
W
95-92 OT
95
92
+3
no box
A09/11
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-20
18-20
20-17
17-13
16-22
19-19
21-32
24-29
23-25
14-23
18-13
23-25
21-26
11-30
21-21
20-19
14-12
15-25
14-12
15-18
23-17
22-27
18-19
15-21
17-21
24-20
25-24
14-21
21-18
25-26
17-14
15-15
20-15
30-29
23-21
25-19
24-16
18-17
18-24
20-23
162.4Avg total
78.4Scored
84.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)80.083.1163.1-3.143%
Season at home (2)88.084.0172.0+4.050%
Season away (5)76.882.8159.6-6.040%
Last 10 (10)78.484.0162.4-5.630%
Last 5 (5)85.883.8169.6+2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)84.094.0178.0-10.050%
vs Similar (19)80.281.1161.3-0.947%
vs Weaker (9)85.078.8163.8+6.267%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -4.0-4.0Q3Q3: +0.8+0.8Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: -1.5-1.5
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -4.0-4.0Q3Q3: +0.8+0.8Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: -1.5-1.5
PenarolObera TC
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ferro
#6
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H01/05
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#3
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H30/09
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A14/10
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#17
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A17/10
Liga A
San Martin
#18
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H28/10
Liga A
Quimsa
#1
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A31/10
Liga A
Olimpico
#8
W
43-35
43
35
+8
A03/11
Liga A
Platense
#11
W
48-41
48
41
+7
A11/11
Liga A
Ferro
#16
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A13/11
Liga A
79.8Avg total
40.6Scored
39.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.541.481.9-0.847%-
Last 30 at home (12)38.238.676.8-0.442%-
Last 30 away (18)42.143.285.3-1.150%-
Last 10 (10)40.639.279.8+1.460%-
Last 5 (5)40.837.077.8+3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)43.043.086.0+0.050%-
vs Similar (19)40.342.182.4-1.737%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)40.439.680.0+0.967%-
This opponent (Obera TC) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Obera TCLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boca Juniors
#2
L
29-40
29
40
-11
H09/05
Liga A
Boca Juniors
#2
L
35-41
35
41
-6
H11/05
Liga A
Boca Juniors
#2
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A15/05
Liga A
Boca Juniors
#6
L
32-56
32
56
-24
A08/10
Liga A
Lanus
#12
L
29-37
29
37
-8
A09/10
Liga A
Racing de Chivilcoy
#13
W
45-44
45
44
+1
H14/10
Liga A
Platense
#11
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A16/10
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#17
W
46-44
46
44
+2
A18/10
Liga A
Argentino
#9
W
50-44
50
44
+6
H06/11
Liga A
Gimnasia
#3
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A09/11
Liga A
81.4Avg total
38.6Scored
42.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.840.781.6+0.150%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.639.480.0+1.253%-
Last 30 away (15)41.142.183.1-1.047%-
Last 10 (10)38.642.881.4-4.240%-
Last 5 (5)44.841.286.0+3.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)37.044.581.5-7.550%-
vs Similar (19)39.540.880.3-1.437%-
vs Weaker (9)44.639.784.2+4.978%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 82.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.419.9
56.2%
54.4%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.08.4
32.3%
32.6%25.2
🏀 Free throws25.617.5
68.4%
72.7%17.5
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Obera TCtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Obera TC: 75.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.419.6
51.0%
54.4%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.07.8
27.9%
32.6%23.4
🏀 Free throws17.312.6
72.8%
72.7%12.6
They take 66.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Penarol
WWWLWWWWLW
Obera TC
WWWLLLLLLL
#2
League position
#10
+4.1
Net rating
-9.7
113.4
Offensive rating
101.7
109.3
Defensive rating
111.5
52.9%
Effective FG%
47.1%
51.2%
Opp. effective FG%
52.8%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.42
Free-throw rate
0.26
32.3%
3-point %
27.9%
48.4%
Assist %
51.1%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence113.4 · 101.7Defence109.3 · 111.5Shooting52.9% · 47.1%3-point %32.3% · 27.9%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.42 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)80% · 30%
■ Penarol   ■ Obera TC
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Penarol wins
9
Obera TC wins
DateGameScore
17/04/26Obera TC v Penarol84-81
23/11/25Penarol v Obera TC71-87
04/05/25Obera TC v Penarol86-71
15/10/24Penarol v Obera TC78-97
11/04/24Penarol v Obera TC74-57
09/10/23Obera TC v Penarol105-71
22/03/23Obera TC v Penarol90-81
19/12/22Penarol v Obera TC68-71
10/03/22Obera TC v Penarol83-71
04/11/21Penarol v Obera TC68-86
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26AFerro85-76
11/11/26APlatense79-75
03/11/26AOlimpico87-74
31/10/26AQuimsa73-78
28/10/26HSan Martin95-76
17/10/26ASan Lorenzo92-85
14/10/26ALanus84-77
30/09/26HGimnasia62-57
03/05/26HFerro68-84
01/05/26HFerro87-75
Obera TClast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/11/26AGimnasia95-92 OT
06/11/26HArgentino98-84
18/10/26ASan Lorenzo78-73
16/10/26APlatense80-86
14/10/26HRacing de Chivilcoy78-84
09/10/26ALanus58-67
08/10/26ABoca Juniors73-96
15/05/26ABoca Juniors78-86
11/05/26HBoca Juniors80-102
09/05/26HBoca Juniors66-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol
Liga A 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW88%
HomeWW100%
AwayWLWWW83%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games826
Win %88%100%83%
Points / game82.178.583.3
Allowed / game74.866.577.5
Point differential+7.4+12.0+5.8
Avg total156.9145.0160.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Obera TC
Liga A 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW43%
HomeLW50%
AwayLLLWW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games725
Win %43%50%40%
Points / game80.088.076.8
Allowed / game83.184.082.8
Point differential-3.1+4.0-6.0
Avg total163.1172.0159.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %14%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Quimsa87188%85.275.8+9.5
2 Penarol87188%82.174.8+7.4
3 Gimnasia129375%77.274.0+3.2
4 Instituto de Cordoba86275%77.976.5+1.4
5 Atenas75271%84.479.0+5.4
6 Boca Juniors85362%89.583.2+6.2
7 Independiente de Oliva42250%99.589.0+10.5
8 Olimpico84450%86.885.4+1.4
9 Argentino84450%77.979.5-1.6
10 Obera TC73443%80.083.1-3.1
11 Platense83538%76.978.6-1.8
12 Lanus114736%78.579.3-0.7
13 Racing de Chivilcoy93633%79.482.8-3.3
14 La Union62433%78.283.2-5.0
15 Regatas72529%73.375.7-2.4
16 Ferro82625%81.585.6-4.1
17 San Lorenzo82625%70.183.2-13.1
18 San Martin92722%81.687.4-5.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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