Ferro vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Ferro and Penarol clash on 13 November 2026 in the Liga A, a match that feels almost evenly matched as neither side can claim a clear edge. Ferro, 2-5 in the season with 82.3 points scored and 85.7 allowed per game, has struggled at home, going 1-1 with 85.0 points for and 84.0 against, and has lost four of its last five outings, most recently falling 84-87 to San Martin. Penarol, on the other hand, boasts a 6-1 record, averaging 81.7 points and conceding only 74.6, and has won four of its last five road games, including a 79-75 win over Platense. Historically, Ferro has dominated the rivalry, winning eight of ten meetings, yet the last encounter on 2 May 2026 saw Ferro triumph 84-68. Pythia gives Penarol a 54% chance of victory versus Ferro's 46%, projecting a 80-81 scoreline and a total of 161.5 points; the home team's -2.5 line carries a 39% chance of covering, while the over on 164.75 has a 42% probability. With a 5% chance of overtime, the game promises to be a tight contest.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ferro winLost

46.4%fair 2.15

Best odds1.81

Implied52.6%

Edge-6.2pp

Penarol winWon

53.6%fair 1.87

Best odds2.12

Implied47.4%

Edge+6.2pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Ferro

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormFerro

Date

Competition

Gimnasia

74-70

61avg 73

H28/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

81-73

73avg 73

H30/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

54-88

-34

46avg 73

A03/06

Liga A

Argentino

68-79

-11

53avg 73

A01/10

Liga A

Independiente de Oliva

97-92

88avg 73

A09/10

Liga A

Instituto de Cordoba

94-97 OT

-3

83avg 73

A10/10

Liga A

Atenas

86-91

-5

79avg 73

A13/10

Liga A

Platense

#11

86-81

81avg 73

H21/10

Liga A

Gimnasia

61-73

-12

49avg 73

A29/10

Liga A

San Martin

#18

84-87

-3

no box

H11/11

Liga A

22-21

23-14

11-25

18-10

10-19

26-17

26-20

19-17

19-21

14-30

13-20

8-17

17-21

20-23

22-14

9-21

33-28

14-23

27-23

23-18

17-12

22-20

12-22

22-19

20-16

28-24

18-24

20-27

30-20

20-17

19-14

17-30

14-23

19-22

15-11

13-17

20-18

26-12

19-21

19-36

161.6Avg total

78.5Scored

83.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (7)	82.3	85.7	168.0	-3.4	29%
Season at home (2)	85.0	84.0	169.0	+1.0	50%
Season away (5)	81.2	86.4	167.6	-5.2	20%
Last 10 (10)	78.5	83.1	161.6	-4.6	40%
Last 5 (5)	82.2	85.8	168.0	-3.6	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	84.5	88.2	172.8	-3.8	25%
vs Similar (25)	78.0	80.5	158.5	-2.5	44%
vs Weaker (1)	100.0	74.0	174.0	+26.0	100%

This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Penarol

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPenarol

Date

Competition

Ferro

78-80

-2

68avg 74

A26/04

Liga A

Ferro

87-75

+12

83avg 74

H01/05

Liga A

Ferro

68-84

-16

61avg 74

H03/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

62-57

54avg 74

H30/09

Liga A

Lanus

#12

84-77

77avg 74

A14/10

Liga A

San Lorenzo

#17

92-85

87avg 74

A17/10

Liga A

San Martin

#18

95-76

+19

86avg 74

H28/10

Liga A

Quimsa

73-78

-5

no box

A31/10

Liga A

Olimpico

87-74

+13

no box

A03/11

Liga A

Platense

#11

79-75

no box

A11/11

Liga A

25-21

18-29

20-12

15-18

22-20

18-23

25-21

22-11

19-22

23-26

10-22

16-14

17-14

13-15

14-6

18-22

18-26

27-17

26-23

13-11

28-22

17-22

26-18

21-23

23-11

25-21

24-25

23-19

19-15

11-23

20-21

23-19

20-17

23-18

24-23

20-16

19-17

29-24

16-15

15-19

156.6Avg total

80.5Scored

76.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (7)	81.7	74.6	156.3	+7.1	86%
Season at home (2)	78.5	66.5	145.0	+12.0	100%
Season away (5)	83.0	77.8	160.8	+5.2	80%
Last 10 (10)	80.5	76.1	156.6	+4.4	70%
Last 5 (5)	85.2	77.6	162.8	+7.6	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)	71.5	81.0	152.5	-9.5	50%
vs Similar (20)	82.9	80.9	163.8	+2.0	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)	81.6	76.6	158.2	+5.0	75%

This opponent (Ferro) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 158.5Actual: Over 158.5

Over 158.5

56.4%

@ 1.47-7.3pp

Under 158.5

43.6%

@ 2.55+7.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.47

Betano

1.44

Under

Betano

2.55

Bet365

2.55

Over/Under 163.75 · main lineActual: Under 163.75

Over 163.75

44.4%

@ 1.79-6.1pp

Under 163.75

55.6%

@ 1.83+6.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.79

Under

1xBet

1.83

Over/Under 168.5Actual: Under 168.5

Over 168.5

33.0%

@ 2.25-8.3pp

Under 168.5

67.0%

@ 1.57+8.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.25

Betano

2.22

Under

Betano

1.57

Bet365

1.57

Marathon Be

1.53

📊 3. Team Totals

Ferro total 79.5Actual: Ferro under 79.5

Over 79.5

52.6%

@ 1.47-8.7pp

Under 79.5

47.4%

@ 2.42+8.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.47

1xBet

1.44

Under

Betano

2.42

1xBet

2.19

Ferro total 83.5 · main lineActual: Ferro under 83.5

Over 83.5

37.4%

@ 1.93-10.3pp

Under 83.5

62.6%

@ 1.83+10.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.93

BetVictor

1.91

Marathon Be

1.91

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.83

Under

Bet365

1.83

BetVictor

1.80

Betano

1.75

Marathon Be

1.74

1xBet

1.63

Ferro total 87.5Actual: Ferro under 87.5

Over 87.5

24.1%

@ 2.67-11.4pp

Under 87.5

75.9%

@ 1.40+11.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.67

1xBet

2.40

Under

Betano

1.40

1xBet

1.38

Penarol total 76.5Actual: Penarol over 76.5

Over 76.5

67.6%

@ 1.41+2.0pp

Under 76.5

32.4%

@ 2.70-2.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.41

Betano

1.40

1xBet

1.36

Under

Bet365

2.70

Betano

2.67

1xBet

2.49

Penarol total 80.5 · main lineActual: Penarol over 80.5

Over 80.5

52.7%

@ 1.83-0.2pp

Under 80.5

47.3%

@ 2.05+0.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.67

1xBet

1.63

Under

Betano

2.05

1xBet

1.83

Bet365

1.83

Penarol total 84.5Actual: Penarol over 84.5

Over 84.5

37.5%

@ 2.40-2.1pp

Under 84.5

62.5%

@ 1.55+2.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.40

Betano

2.27

1xBet

2.20

Under

Betano

1.55

Bet365

1.52

1xBet

1.44

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Ferro -4.5Actual: Penarol +4.5

FERR -4.5

32.6%

@ 2.36-7.5pp

PENA +4.5

67.4%

@ 1.64+7.5pp

Best 5 market prices

FERR

Pinnacle

2.36

Betano

2.27

1xBet

2.21

Bet365

2.17

PENA

Bet365

1.64

Pinnacle

1.58

Marathon Be

1.56

Betano

1.55

1xBet

1.48

Spread Ferro -1.5 · main lineActual: Penarol +1.5

FERR -1.5

43.6%

@ 1.88-7.2pp

PENA +1.5

56.4%

@ 1.95+7.2pp

Best 5 market prices

FERR

Pinnacle

1.88

Betano

1.83

1xBet

1.81

Marathon Be

1.81

SBO

1.80

PENA

Bet365

1.95

Pinnacle

1.94

Betfair

1.91

BetVictor

1.88

SBO

1.86

Spread Ferro +1.5Actual: Penarol -1.5

FERR +1.5

49.3%

@ 1.68-7.0pp

PENA -1.5

50.7%

@ 2.30+7.0pp

Best 5 market prices

FERR

Pinnacle

1.68

Betano

1.65

Marathon Be

1.59

Bet365

1.55

1xBet

1.53

PENA

Bet365

2.30

Pinnacle

2.16

1xBet

2.10

Marathon Be

2.10

Betano

2.07

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

FerroPenarol

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	21.5	20.7	42.1	+0.8	53%	40%
Last 30 at home (10)	22.9	20.4	43.3	+2.5	70%	50%
Last 30 away (20)	20.8	20.8	41.5	-0.1	45%	35%
Last 10 (10)	20.2	19.9	40.1	+0.3	60%	30%
Last 5 (5)	20.2	17.8	38.0	+2.4	80%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	21.0	19.8	40.8	+1.2	75%	25%
vs Similar (25)	21.2	20.8	42.0	+0.4	48%	40%
vs Weaker (1)	30.0	21.0	51.0	+9.0	100%	100%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	20.9	20.2	41.1	+0.8	53%	47%
Last 30 at home (12)	20.4	19.0	39.4	+1.4	42%	42%
Last 30 away (18)	21.3	20.9	42.2	+0.3	61%	50%
Last 10 (10)	21.0	18.5	39.5	+2.5	80%	30%
Last 5 (5)	21.8	16.4	38.2	+5.4	100%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)	21.5	19.5	41.0	+2.0	50%	50%
vs Similar (20)	20.9	20.2	41.1	+0.8	50%	45%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)	20.8	20.2	41.0	+0.5	62%	50%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40
Last 30 (30)	20.9	19.9	40.7	+1.0	53%	57%
Last 30 at home (10)	23.0	16.8	39.8	+6.2	70%	40%
Last 30 away (20)	19.8	21.4	41.2	-1.6	45%	65%
Last 10 (10)	21.2	20.2	41.4	+1.0	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	23.0	19.0	42.0	+4.0	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	20.8	22.2	43.0	-1.5	50%	75%
vs Similar (25)	20.6	19.7	40.2	+0.9	52%	52%
vs Weaker (1)	29.0	15.0	44.0	+14.0	100%	100%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40
Last 30 (30)	19.6	21.5	41.1	-1.9	30%	50%
Last 30 at home (12)	17.8	19.6	37.3	-1.8	25%	33%
Last 30 away (18)	20.8	22.7	43.6	-1.9	33%	61%
Last 10 (10)	20.4	21.8	42.2	-1.4	40%	70%
Last 5 (5)	21.0	21.6	42.6	-0.6	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)	21.5	23.5	45.0	-2.0	0%	50%
vs Similar (20)	19.1	22.1	41.2	-3.0	25%	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)	20.4	19.4	39.8	+1.0	50%	50%

FerroLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Gimnasia

45-35

+10

H28/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

36-36

H30/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

33-51

-18

A03/06

Liga A

Argentino

37-44

-7

A01/10

Liga A

Independiente de Oliva

47-51

-4

A09/10

Liga A

Instituto de Cordoba

39-32

A10/10

Liga A

Atenas

48-40

A13/10

Liga A

Platense

#11

50-37

+13

H21/10

Liga A

Gimnasia

33-45

-12

A29/10

Liga A

San Martin

#18

46-30

+16

H11/11

Liga A

81.5Avg total

41.4Scored

40.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 80.5
Last 30 (30)	42.3	40.5	82.9	+1.8	57%	63%
Last 30 at home (10)	45.9	37.2	83.1	+8.7	80%	50%
Last 30 away (20)	40.5	42.2	82.8	-1.7	45%	70%
Last 10 (10)	41.4	40.1	81.5	+1.3	50%	50%
Last 5 (5)	43.2	36.8	80.0	+6.4	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	41.8	42.0	83.8	-0.2	50%	50%
vs Similar (25)	41.8	40.5	82.2	+1.3	56%	64%
vs Weaker (1)	59.0	36.0	95.0	+23.0	100%	100%

This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Ferro

43-50

-7

A26/04

Liga A

Ferro

40-43

-3

H01/05

Liga A

Ferro

42-48

-6

H03/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

30-29

H30/09

Liga A

Lanus

#12

45-43

A14/10

Liga A

San Lorenzo

#17

45-44

A17/10

Liga A

San Martin

#18

48-32

+16

H28/10

Liga A

Quimsa

30-38

-8

A31/10

Liga A

Olimpico

43-35

A03/11

Liga A

Platense

#11

48-41

A11/11

Liga A

81.7Avg total

41.4Scored

40.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 80.5
Last 30 (30)	40.5	41.6	82.2	-1.1	47%	57%
Last 30 at home (12)	38.2	38.6	76.8	-0.4	42%	33%
Last 30 away (18)	42.1	43.7	85.8	-1.6	50%	72%
Last 10 (10)	41.4	40.3	81.7	+1.1	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	42.8	38.0	80.8	+4.8	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)	43.0	43.0	86.0	+0.0	50%	100%
vs Similar (20)	40.0	42.3	82.3	-2.2	35%	55%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)	41.1	39.6	80.8	+1.5	75%	50%

This opponent (Ferro) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Ferro win

FERR win

no forecast

@ 1.82

PENA win

no forecast

@ 2.05

1st half Spread Ferro -0.5 · main lineActual: Ferro -0.5

FERR -0.5

no forecast

@ 1.83

PENA +0.5

no forecast

@ 1.95

1st half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Under 80.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.83

Under

no forecast

@ 1.83

Ferro 1st half total 40.5 · main lineActual: Ferro under 40.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.83

Under

no forecast

@ 2.15

Penarol 1st half total 41.5 · main lineActual: Penarol under 41.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.95

Under

no forecast

@ 1.87

1st half: FERR + total 80.5

FERR & over

no forecast

@ 3.50

FERR & under

no forecast

@ 3.60

1st half: Draw + total 80.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 26.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 29.00

1st half: PENA + total 80.5

PENA & over

no forecast

@ 3.80

PENA & under

no forecast

@ 3.90

1st half Over/Under 81.75Actual: Under 81.75

Over

no forecast

@ 1.78

Under

no forecast

@ 1.79

1st half Spread Ferro -1.5Actual: Ferro -1.5

FERR -1.5

no forecast

@ 2.07

PENA +1.5

no forecast

@ 1.80

1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Under 78.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.60

Under

no forecast

@ 2.20

1st half Spread Ferro +1Actual: Ferro +1

FERR +1

no forecast

@ 1.68

PENA -1

no forecast

@ 2.20

1st half Over/Under 83Actual: Under 83

Over

no forecast

@ 2.02

Under

no forecast

@ 1.81

1st half Spread Ferro -2.5Actual: Ferro -2.5

FERR -2.5

no forecast

@ 2.20

PENA +2.5

no forecast

@ 1.71

1st half Over/Under 76.5Actual: Under 76.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.43

Under

no forecast

@ 2.65

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Penarol (regulation)

FERR

no forecast

@ 1.83

Draw

no forecast

@ 16.50

PENA

no forecast

@ 2.10

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.25
Last 30 (30)	18.9	19.7	38.6	-0.7	47%	37%
Last 30 at home (10)	19.3	19.9	39.2	-0.6	50%	30%
Last 30 away (20)	18.8	19.6	38.3	-0.8	45%	40%
Last 10 (10)	18.2	19.4	37.6	-1.2	50%	30%
Last 5 (5)	16.6	18.4	35.0	-1.8	40%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	18.0	20.0	38.0	-2.0	50%	50%
vs Similar (25)	18.8	19.6	38.5	-0.8	44%	32%
vs Weaker (1)	25.0	19.0	44.0	+6.0	100%	100%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.25
Last 30 (30)	20.9	18.6	39.5	+2.3	70%	50%
Last 30 at home (12)	20.0	17.5	37.5	+2.5	67%	42%
Last 30 away (18)	21.5	19.4	40.9	+2.1	72%	56%
Last 10 (10)	20.5	18.6	39.1	+1.9	70%	60%
Last 5 (5)	22.0	20.4	42.4	+1.6	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)	16.0	17.5	33.5	-1.5	50%	0%
vs Similar (20)	20.9	19.1	40.0	+1.8	65%	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)	22.1	17.8	39.9	+4.4	88%	62%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	17.6	20.3	37.9	-2.7	33%	40%
Last 30 at home (10)	18.6	21.3	39.9	-2.7	40%	40%
Last 30 away (20)	17.1	19.8	37.0	-2.7	30%	40%
Last 10 (10)	16.8	21.2	38.0	-4.4	40%	50%
Last 5 (5)	18.2	25.8	44.0	-7.6	20%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	19.5	20.2	39.8	-0.8	50%	75%
vs Similar (25)	17.4	20.4	37.8	-3.0	32%	36%
vs Weaker (1)	16.0	19.0	35.0	-3.0	0%	0%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	19.9	19.2	39.1	+0.7	50%	40%
Last 30 at home (12)	20.6	18.8	39.3	+1.8	58%	33%
Last 30 away (18)	19.4	19.5	38.9	-0.1	44%	44%
Last 10 (10)	18.6	17.2	35.8	+1.4	60%	30%
Last 5 (5)	20.4	19.2	39.6	+1.2	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)	12.5	20.5	33.0	-8.0	0%	0%
vs Similar (20)	21.2	19.1	40.2	+2.1	60%	45%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)	18.4	19.2	37.6	-0.9	38%	38%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 81
Last 30 (30)	36.6	40.0	76.5	-3.4	37%	30%
Last 30 at home (10)	37.9	41.2	79.1	-3.3	30%	40%
Last 30 away (20)	35.9	39.4	75.2	-3.5	40%	25%
Last 10 (10)	35.0	40.6	75.6	-5.6	20%	40%
Last 5 (5)	34.8	44.2	79.0	-9.4	0%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	37.5	40.2	77.8	-2.8	25%	50%
vs Similar (25)	36.2	40.0	76.2	-3.8	36%	28%
vs Weaker (1)	41.0	38.0	79.0	+3.0	100%	0%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 81
Last 30 (30)	40.8	37.8	78.6	+2.9	67%	43%
Last 30 at home (12)	40.6	36.2	76.8	+4.3	58%	33%
Last 30 away (18)	40.9	38.9	79.8	+2.0	72%	50%
Last 10 (10)	39.1	35.8	74.9	+3.3	80%	40%
Last 5 (5)	42.4	39.6	82.0	+2.8	80%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)	28.5	38.0	66.5	-9.5	0%	0%
vs Similar (20)	42.1	38.1	80.2	+4.0	70%	45%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)	40.5	37.0	77.5	+3.5	75%	50%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

FERR win + total 163.5

🔒 Pro

PENA win + total 163.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: FERR leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: PENA leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (FERR:PENA): FERR wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Ferro under 88.5	78.8%	1.40	Bet365 1.40	-	-	-	-	+12.5pp	Won
Penarol +9	81.3%	1.34	Bet365 1.34	-	-	-	-	+11.5pp	Won
Ferro under 90.5	83.8%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	+11.5pp	Won
Penarol +10	83.6%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+11.4pp	Won
Penarol +8	78.8%	1.38	Bet365 1.38	-	-	-	-	+11.4pp	Won
Penarol +7	76.0%	1.45	Bet365 1.45	-	-	-	-	+11.4pp	Won
Ferro under 87.5	75.9%	1.39	Betano 1.40	1xBet 1.38	-	-	-	+11.4pp	Won
Penarol +10.5	84.0%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	+11.3pp	Won
Penarol +6	73.0%	1.52	Bet365 1.52	-	-	-	-	+11.3pp	Won
Penarol +6.5	73.8%	1.43	Bet365 1.50	Betano 1.40	1xBet 1.40	-	-	+10.5pp	Won
Ferro under 86.5	72.8%	1.47	Bet365 1.54	Betano 1.47	1xBet 1.39	-	-	+10.3pp	Won
Ferro under 93.5	89.8%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+10.3pp	Won
Ferro under 92.5	88.0%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+10.2pp	Won
Penarol +12.5	87.8%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+10.0pp	Won
Penarol +8.5	79.4%	1.33	Bet365 1.37	Betano 1.29	-	-	-	+9.9pp	Won
Ferro under 94.5	91.3%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+9.9pp	Won
Penarol +9.5	81.8%	1.29	Bet365 1.32	Betano 1.25	-	-	-	+9.8pp	Won
Penarol +7.5	76.7%	1.39	Bet365 1.43	Betano 1.34	-	-	-	+9.8pp	Won
Penarol +17.5	94.1%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+8.6pp	Won
Under 172	74.6%	1.40	Bet365 1.40	-	-	-	-	+8.3pp	Won
Penarol +5.5	70.7%	1.48	Bet365 1.57	Betano 1.47	1xBet 1.40	-	-	+8.2pp	Won
Under 171	72.6%	1.44	Bet365 1.44	-	-	-	-	+8.1pp	Won
Under 170	70.6%	1.50	Bet365 1.50	-	-	-	-	+8.1pp	Won
Penarol +22.5	97.3%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Won
Under 170.5	71.2%	1.46	Bet365 1.47	Betano 1.45	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Won
Under 171.5	73.1%	1.42	Betano 1.42	Bet365 1.41	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Won
Under 172.5	75.0%	1.37	Bet365 1.37	-	-	-	-	+7.5pp	Won
Under 174.5	78.6%	1.30	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	-	+7.2pp	Won
Under 179.5	86.0%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Won
Penarol over 62.5	96.6%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
Penarol over 63.5	95.8%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Won
Under 184.5	91.3%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+5.2pp	Won
Penarol over 64.5	94.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+5.2pp	Won
Penarol over 61.5	97.2%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Won
Penarol over 69.5	87.3%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Won
Penarol over 65.5	93.7%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Won
Ferro +22.5	96.3%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.8pp	Won
Penarol over 59.5	98.3%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Won
Penarol over 67.5	90.9%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+4.3pp	Won
Under 187.5	93.6%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+4.2pp	Won
Penarol over 66.5	92.4%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+4.1pp	Won
Penarol over 72.5	80.2%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+4.0pp	Won
Penarol over 71.5	82.8%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+3.9pp	Won
Under 177.5	83.3%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+3.8pp	Won
Penarol under 90.5	81.5%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
Penarol over 70.5	85.1%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
Penarol over 68.5	89.2%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
Ferro over 60.5	97.2%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.5pp	Won
Penarol under 91.5	83.9%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Overtime: no	94.6%	1.03	Betano 1.03	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
Under 182.5	89.4%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
Ferro over 62.5	95.7%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+2.9pp	Won
Penarol over 74.5	74.3%	1.30	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	-	+2.9pp	Won
Ferro +17.5	92.0%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+2.7pp	Won
Penarol under 88.5	75.9%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	+2.6pp	Won
Ferro over 64.5	93.7%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+2.5pp	Won
Over 137.5	92.7%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+2.4pp	Won
Ferro over 66.5	90.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+1.2pp	Won
Over 139.5	90.8%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+0.6pp	Won
Over 142.5	87.3%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+0.2pp	Won
Over 147.5	79.8%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	-0.7pp	Won
Ferro +12.5	84.1%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	-0.9pp	Won
Ferro over 68.5	87.2%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	-1.1pp	Won
Over 152.5	70.1%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	-1.8pp	Won
Over 144.5	84.6%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	-2.1pp	Won
Ferro over 70.5	82.6%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	-2.9pp	Won
Ferro +7.5	71.1%	1.24	Betano 1.25	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-3.1pp	Lost
Over 149.5	76.2%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	-3.4pp	Won
Ferro over 72.5	77.2%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	-4.3pp	Won
Ferro over 73.5	74.1%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	-5.4pp	Won
Ferro over 74.5	70.9%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-6.9pp	Won

Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Ferrotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ferro: 77.5 points a game scored

🏀🏀49%

🏀🏀🏀29%

🏀22%

🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 49% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 29% of the points

🏀 Free throws17.2 pts a game · 22% of the points

League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game

47%

34%

18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	33.9	18.9	55.8%	54.4%	37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.4	7.5	25.5%	32.6%	22.5
🏀 Free throws	22.7	17.2	75.8%	72.7%	17.2

They take 63.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 82.5 points a game scored

🏀🏀48%

🏀🏀🏀31%

🏀21%

🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 48% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 31% of the points

🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 21% of the points

League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game

47%

34%

18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.4	19.9	56.2%	54.4%	39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.0	8.4	32.3%	32.6%	25.2
🏀 Free throws	25.6	17.5	68.4%	72.7%	17.5

They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.2	18.9	55.3%	54.4%	37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.8	8.9	33.2%	32.6%	26.7
🏀 Free throws	23.5	16.2	68.9%	72.7%	16.2

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.7	18.9	54.5%	54.4%	37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.7	9.4	31.6%	32.6%	28.2
🏀 Free throws	19.2	13.5	70.3%	72.7%	13.5

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	33.8	19.1	56.4%	54.4%	38.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.6	8.7	29.5%	32.6%	26.2
🏀 Free throws	19.0	13.9	73.3%	72.7%	13.9

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.3	18.9	55.2%	54.4%	37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.6	9.1	34.1%	32.6%	27.2
🏀 Free throws	23.8	17.1	71.6%	72.7%	17.1

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.5	18.7	54.2%	54.4%	37.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.9	8.8	34.1%	32.6%	26.5
🏀 Free throws	23.5	16.3	69.4%	72.7%	16.3

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.4	19.2	54.1%	54.4%	38.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.8	9.3	31.2%	32.6%	28.0
🏀 Free throws	19.9	13.8	69.4%	72.7%	13.8

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Ferro

LLWLLWLLWW

Penarol

WWLWWWWLWL

#16

League position

-4.4

Net rating

+4.1

107.2

Offensive rating

113.4

111.6

Defensive rating

109.3

47.6%

Effective FG%

52.9%

Opp. effective FG%

51.2%

0.0%

Turnover %

0.0%

0.36

Free-throw rate

0.42

25.5%

3-point %

32.3%

51.9%

Assist %

48.4%

40%

Form (last 10/10)

70%

Profile

■ Ferro ■ Penarol

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Ferro wins

Penarol wins

Date	Game	Score
03/05/26	Penarol v Ferro	68-84
01/05/26	Penarol v Ferro	87-75
26/04/26	Ferro v Penarol	80-78
24/04/26	Ferro v Penarol	97-91
20/04/26	Penarol v Ferro	87-80
28/09/25	Ferro v Penarol	97-84
27/04/25	Penarol v Ferro	73-75
09/10/24	Ferro v Penarol	84-82 OT
13/05/24	Penarol v Ferro	70-86
14/11/23	Ferro v Penarol	80-73

Ferrolast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
11/11/26	H	San Martin	84-87
29/10/26	A	Gimnasia	61-73
21/10/26	H	Platense	86-81
13/10/26	A	Atenas	86-91
10/10/26	A	Instituto de Cordoba	94-97 OT
09/10/26	A	Independiente de Oliva	97-92
01/10/26	A	Argentino	68-79
03/06/26	A	Gimnasia	54-88
30/05/26	H	Gimnasia	81-73
28/05/26	H	Gimnasia	74-70

Penarollast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
11/11/26	A	Platense	79-75
03/11/26	A	Olimpico	87-74
31/10/26	A	Quimsa	73-78
28/10/26	H	San Martin	95-76
17/10/26	A	San Lorenzo	92-85
14/10/26	A	Lanus	84-77
30/09/26	H	Gimnasia	62-57
03/05/26	H	Ferro	68-84
01/05/26	H	Ferro	87-75
26/04/26	A	Ferro	78-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ferro

Liga A 2026-27

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLWLL	29%
Home	WL	50%
Away	LWLLL	20%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	7	2	5
Win %	29%	50%	20%
Points / game	82.3	85.0	81.2
Allowed / game	85.7	84.0	86.4
Point differential	-3.4	+1.0	-5.2
Avg total	168.0	169.0	167.6
Over 163.75	71%	100%	60%
Win by 10+	0%	0%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	40% (5)	50% (2)	33% (3)
Overtime %	14%	0%	20%

Penarol

Liga A 2026-27

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWLWW	86%
Home	WW	100%
Away	WWLWW	80%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	7	2	5
Win %	86%	100%	80%
Points / game	81.7	78.5	83.0
Allowed / game	74.6	66.5	77.8
Point differential	+7.1	+12.0	+5.2
Avg total	156.3	145.0	160.8
Over 163.75	29%	50%	20%
Win by 10+	29%	50%	20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	67% (3)	100% (1)	50% (2)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Quimsa	8	7	1	88%	85.2	75.8	+9.5
2	Penarol	7	6	1	86%	81.7	74.6	+7.1
3	Instituto de Cordoba	8	6	2	75%	77.9	76.5	+1.4
4	Gimnasia	11	8	3	73%	78.0	75.5	+2.5
5	Atenas	7	5	2	71%	84.4	79.0	+5.4
6	Boca Juniors	8	5	3	62%	89.5	83.2	+6.2
7	Olimpico	8	4	4	50%	86.8	85.4	+1.4
8	Argentino	8	4	4	50%	77.9	79.5	-1.6
9	Platense	7	3	4	43%	79.6	80.1	-0.6
10	Obera TC	7	3	4	43%	80.0	83.1	-3.1
11	Lanus	11	4	7	36%	78.5	79.3	-0.7
12	Independiente de Oliva	3	1	2	33%	92.0	89.0	+3.0
13	Racing de Chivilcoy	9	3	6	33%	79.4	82.8	-3.3
14	La Union	6	2	4	33%	78.2	83.2	-5.0
15	Regatas	7	2	5	29%	73.3	75.7	-2.4
16	Ferro	7	2	5	29%	82.3	85.7	-3.4
17	San Lorenzo	7	2	5	29%	67.4	77.7	-10.3
18	San Martin	9	2	7	22%	81.6	87.4	-5.9

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Ferro	20	19	18	19	76
Penarol	22	13	15	35	85

← all games of the day

Ferro vs Penarol Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

A Pro feature