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Penn State vs Michigan State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 14 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 72-80
31-45 41-35
Position#216
Record12-12
FormLWWWL
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game73.3
vs
Position#154
Record15-9
FormLWWLW
Points / game75.1
Allowed / game65.6
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Penn State v Michigan State
13 Dec 2025
PENN72
MICH76
14 Feb 2024
PENN72
MICH80
07 Dec 2022
PENN58
MICH67
15 Feb 2022
PENN62
MICH58
03 Mar 2020
PENN71
MICH79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penn State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Michigan State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Penn StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Michigan
#347
W
79-73
79
73
+6
H07/01
NCAA
Northwestern
#86
L
72-76
72
76
-4
H10/01
NCAA
Purdue
#8
L
78-95
78
95
-17
A13/01
NCAA
Wisconsin
#117
W
87-83
87
83
+4
H17/01
NCAA
Ohio State
#123
L
67-79
67
79
-12
A20/01
NCAA
Minnesota
#163
L
74-83
74
83
-9
H27/01
NCAA
Rutgers
#241
W
61-46
61
46
+15
A01/02
NCAA
Indiana
#153
W
85-71
85
71
+14
A03/02
NCAA
Iowa
#162
W
89-79
89
79
+10
H09/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#86
L
63-68
63
68
-5
A11/02
NCAA
1H
2H
27-37
52-36
40-32
32-44
36-56
42-39
39-35
48-48
19-33
48-46
45-31
29-52
26-24
35-22
37-41
48-30
42-34
47-45
27-29
36-39
150.8Avg total
75.5Scored
75.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)76.073.3149.2+2.750%
Season at home (14)78.968.9147.7+10.071%
Season away (10)71.979.5151.4-7.620%
Last 10 (10)75.575.3150.8+0.250%
Last 5 (5)74.469.4143.8+5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)68.875.2144.0-6.420%
vs Similar (22)75.772.1147.8+3.659%
vs Weaker (3)81.069.3150.3+11.767%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northwestern
#86
L
74-88
74
88
-14
A08/01
NCAA
Illinois
#27
L
68-71
68
71
-3
A12/01
NCAA
Rutgers
#241
W
73-55
73
55
+18
H14/01
NCAA
Minnesota
#163
W
76-66
76
66
+10
H18/01
NCAA
Maryland
#215
W
61-59
61
59
+2
A21/01
NCAA
Wisconsin
#117
L
66-81
66
81
-15
A27/01
NCAA
Michigan
#347
W
81-62
81
62
+19
H31/01
NCAA
Maryland
#215
W
63-54
63
54
+9
H03/02
NCAA
Minnesota
#163
L
56-59
56
59
-3
A07/02
NCAA
Illinois
#27
W
88-80
88
80
+8
H10/02
NCAA
1H
2H
31-46
43-42
34-37
34-34
28-22
45-33
37-32
39-34
44-32
17-27
34-43
32-38
33-35
48-27
31-27
32-27
32-27
24-32
44-41
44-39
138.1Avg total
70.6Scored
67.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)75.165.6140.7+9.562%
Season at home (18)78.263.3141.5+14.878%
Season away (6)65.872.5138.3-6.717%
Last 10 (10)70.667.5138.1+3.160%
Last 5 (5)70.867.2138.0+3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)73.072.4145.4+0.640%
vs Similar (17)72.270.1142.2+2.153%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)83.256.9140.1+26.4100%
This opponent (Penn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: -1.4-1.41st half: +0.6+0.62nd half2nd half: +1.6+1.62nd half: +2.5+2.5
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: -1.4-1.41st half: +0.6+0.62nd half2nd half: +1.6+1.62nd half: +2.5+2.5
Penn StateMichigan State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Penn StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Michigan
#347
L
27-37
27
37
-10
H07/01
NCAA
Northwestern
#86
W
40-32
40
32
+8
H10/01
NCAA
Purdue
#8
L
36-56
36
56
-20
A13/01
NCAA
Wisconsin
#117
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H17/01
NCAA
Ohio State
#123
L
19-33
19
33
-14
A20/01
NCAA
Minnesota
#163
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H27/01
NCAA
Rutgers
#241
W
26-24
26
24
+2
A01/02
NCAA
Indiana
#153
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A03/02
NCAA
Iowa
#162
W
42-34
42
34
+8
H09/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#86
L
27-29
27
29
-2
A11/02
NCAA
69.0Avg total
33.8Scored
35.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.232.967.1+1.350%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.330.668.9+7.771%-
Last 30 away (16)30.634.965.6-4.331%-
Last 10 (10)33.835.269.0-1.450%-
Last 5 (5)35.431.867.2+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)29.839.869.6-10.020%-
vs Similar (22)34.931.566.4+3.359%-
vs Weaker (3)36.731.368.0+5.333%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northwestern
#86
L
31-46
31
46
-15
A08/01
NCAA
Illinois
#27
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A12/01
NCAA
Rutgers
#241
W
28-22
28
22
+6
H14/01
NCAA
Minnesota
#163
W
37-32
37
32
+5
H18/01
NCAA
Maryland
#215
W
44-32
44
32
+12
A21/01
NCAA
Wisconsin
#117
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A27/01
NCAA
Michigan
#347
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H31/01
NCAA
Maryland
#215
W
31-27
31
27
+4
H03/02
NCAA
Minnesota
#163
W
32-27
32
27
+5
A07/02
NCAA
Illinois
#27
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H10/02
NCAA
69.0Avg total
34.8Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.330.165.4+5.360%-
Last 30 at home (21)35.927.563.4+8.467%-
Last 30 away (9)34.036.170.1-2.144%-
Last 10 (10)34.834.269.0+0.660%-
Last 5 (5)34.834.669.4+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)32.034.066.0-2.040%-
vs Similar (17)35.032.867.8+2.259%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)38.121.859.9+16.475%-
This opponent (Penn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Penn State wins
5
Michigan State wins
Penn Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/02/24ANorthwestern63-68
09/02/24HIowa89-79
03/02/24AIndiana85-71
01/02/24ARutgers61-46
27/01/24HMinnesota74-83
20/01/24AOhio State67-79
17/01/24HWisconsin87-83
13/01/24APurdue78-95
10/01/24HNorthwestern72-76
07/01/24HMichigan79-73
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/02/24HIllinois88-80
07/02/24AMinnesota56-59
03/02/24HMaryland63-54
31/01/24HMichigan81-62
27/01/24AWisconsin66-81
21/01/24AMaryland61-59
18/01/24HMinnesota76-66
14/01/24HRutgers73-55
12/01/24AIllinois68-71
08/01/24ANorthwestern74-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penn State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL50%
HomeWLWLW71%
AwayLLWWL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241410
Win %50%71%20%
Points / game76.078.971.9
Allowed / game73.368.979.5
Point differential+2.7+10.0-7.6
Avg total149.2147.7151.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%43%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)50% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %8%7%10%
Michigan State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW62%
HomeWWWWW78%
AwayLLWLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games24186
Win %62%78%17%
Points / game75.178.265.8
Allowed / game65.663.372.5
Point differential+9.5+14.8-6.7
Avg total140.7141.5138.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (1)33% (3)
Overtime %4%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Purdue2422292%85.169.5+15.5
2 Illinois2418675%83.070.3+12.7
3 Northwestern2417771%74.969.8+5.2
4 Nebraska2517868%77.370.8+6.5
5 Wisconsin2517868%73.867.8+6.0
6 Oregon2416867%77.072.5+4.5
7 Minnesota2315865%76.168.6+7.5
8 Michigan State2415962%75.165.6+9.5
9 Iowa24141058%84.278.1+6.1
10 Indiana24141058%73.074.4-1.5
11 Rutgers23131057%66.965.0+2.0
12 Ohio State25141156%74.469.7+4.7
13 Maryland24131154%69.163.7+5.4
14 Washington24131154%80.876.7+4.0
15 UCLA24131154%66.264.0+2.2
16 Penn State24121250%76.073.3+2.7
17 USC2491538%74.475.3-1.0
18 Michigan2581732%75.779.1-3.4
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Penn State314172
Michigan State453580
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