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Pogradeci vs Elbasani Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 87-93
Projected total 180.3
Scheduled
Position#11
Record0-4
FormLLLLL
Points / game68.8
Allowed / game96.2
Pogradeci
Albania
Vs
28%
72%
■ POGR 28%■ ELBA 72%
Pythia win probability
Elbasani
Albania
Position#8
Record1-3
FormLLWLL
Points / game81.2
Allowed / game95.8
AlbaniaSuperliga· Pallati I Sportit
Other2026-27
Meetings · Pogradeci v Elbasani
15 Nov 2026
POGR v ELBA
upcoming
17 Jan 2026
POGR113
ELBA111
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Pogradeci face Elbasani in the Superliga on 15 November 2026, with the model designating Elbasani as the favourite as the game is expected to favour the away side; the Pythia model gives Elbasani a 72% chance of winning against Pogradeci's 28% and projects a 93-87 score, a total of 180.3 points, and a 58% probability of the over on the 176.5 line, while the home team's line of 2.5 carries a 35% chance of covering; an overtime probability of 5% is also noted. Pogradeci enter the match 0-4 with an average of 68.8 points scored and 96.2 points allowed, and they have gone 0-2 at home, scoring 71.5 and allowing 94.0, with five straight losses in their last five games; recent outings include defeats to Kamza Basket 67-87, Tirana 65-110, and Vllaznia 54-69. Elbasani are 1-3 overall, averaging 81.2 points for and 95.8 against, and they have gone 0-2 on the road, scoring 77.0 and allowing 106.5, with a single win in their last five games; recent results show a loss to Apolonia Fier 74-116, a loss to Kamza Basket 82-84, and a win over Tirana 89-86. The teams have met twice before, each winning once, with Pogradeci's most recent victory coming 113-111 on 17 January 2026.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pogradeci win
28.2%fair 3.55
Best odds1.95
Implied50.0%
Edge-21.8pp
Elbasani win
71.8%fair 1.39
Best odds1.80
Implied50.0%
Edge+21.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PogradeciAlbaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPogradeci
Date
Competition
Vllaznia
#3
L
72-98
72
98
-26
69avg 74
H07/03
Superliga
Teuta Durres
#6
L
88-94
88
94
-6
87avg 74
A14/03
Superliga
PBC Flamurtari
#12
W
95-76
95
76
+19
105avg 74
H21/03
Superliga
Apolonia Fier
#4
L
65-68
65
68
-3
66avg 74
H29/03
Superliga
Partizani Tirana
#10
L
82-89
82
89
-7
80avg 74
H04/04
Superliga
Tirana
#2
L
71-114
71
114
-43
66avg 74
H10/04
Superliga
Skenderbeu
#6
L
89-119
89
119
-30
no box
H13/10
Superliga
Vllaznia
#1
L
54-69
54
69
-15
no box
H18/10
Superliga
Tirana
#7
L
65-110
65
110
-45
no box
A24/10
Superliga
Kamza Basket
#2
L
67-87
67
87
-20
no box
A08/11
Superliga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
10-28
13-25
18-24
31-21
18-23
22-26
16-22
32-23
28-11
18-16
25-22
24-27
11-19
28-10
14-18
12-21
16-28
28-16
20-25
18-20
16-11
22-30
13-41
20-32
12-40
27-30
32-31
18-18
11-19
13-11
10-12
20-27
19-34
14-33
15-18
17-25
17-17
16-26
17-24
17-20
167.2Avg total
74.8Scored
92.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)68.896.2165.0-27.50%
Season at home (2)71.594.0165.5-22.50%
Season away (2)66.098.5164.5-32.50%
Last 10 (10)74.892.4167.2-17.610%
Last 5 (5)69.299.8169.0-30.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)73.9102.8176.7-28.80%
vs Similar (2)88.5104.5193.0-16.050%
vs Weaker (4)85.581.2166.8+4.250%
This opponent (Elbasani) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ElbasaniAlbaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormElbasani
Date
Competition
Teuta Durres
#6
L
74-93
74
93
-19
60avg 63
A08/03
Superliga
PBC Flamurtari
#12
W
93-89
93
89
+4
90avg 63
H15/03
Superliga
Apolonia Fier
#4
L
62-91
62
91
-29
44avg 63
A22/03
Superliga
Partizani Tirana
#10
W
100-81
100
81
+19
93avg 63
H29/03
Superliga
Tirana
#2
L
89-139
89
139
-50
68avg 63
A04/04
Superliga
Kamza Basket
#5
L
80-112
80
112
-32
70avg 63
H07/04
Superliga
Vllaznia
#1
L
80-97
80
97
-17
13avg 63
A09/10
Superliga
Tirana
#7
W
89-86
89
86
+3
no box
H18/10
Superliga
Kamza Basket
#2
L
82-84
82
84
-2
no box
H30/10
Superliga
Apolonia Fier
#5
L
74-116
74
116
-42
no box
A08/11
Superliga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
10-15
12-27
24-27
28-24
16-25
33-23
27-22
17-19
18-33
14-18
12-20
18-20
30-10
24-25
25-18
21-28
22-36
22-33
23-29
22-41
20-36
13-18
17-35
30-23
28-33
11-26
16-20
25-18
22-23
25-21
17-24
25-18
19-23
22-18
16-18
25-25
17-26
22-22
20-31
15-37
181.1Avg total
82.3Scored
98.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)81.295.8177.0-14.525%
Season at home (2)85.585.0170.5+0.550%
Season away (2)77.0106.5183.5-29.50%
Last 10 (10)82.398.8181.1-16.530%
Last 5 (5)81.099.0180.0-18.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (24)77.2110.1187.3-32.812%
vs Similar (2)104.588.5193.0+16.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)95.878.2174.0+17.5100%
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 171.5
Over 171.5
69.5%
Under 171.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 176.5 · main line
Over 176.5
58.1%
@ 1.83+6.2pp
Under 176.5
41.9%
@ 1.90-6.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.62
Under
1xBet
1.90
Bet365
1.83
Over/Under 181.5
Over 181.5
46.1%
Under 181.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Pogradeci total 83.5
Over 83.5
62.1%
Under 83.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci total 87.5 · main line
Over 87.5
46.8%
@ 1.83-5.8pp
Under 87.5
53.2%
@ 1.93+5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.57
Under
1xBet
1.93
Bet365
1.83
Pogradeci total 91.5
Over 91.5
32.2%
@ 2.06-9.9pp
Under 91.5
67.8%
@ 1.50+9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.06
Under
1xBet
1.50
Elbasani total 85.5
Over 85.5
78.0%
@ 1.40+15.8pp
Under 85.5
22.0%
@ 2.31-15.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Under
1xBet
2.31
Elbasani total 89.5 · main line
Over 89.5
64.8%
@ 1.83+15.3pp
Under 89.5
35.2%
@ 1.83-15.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.75
Under
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.69
Elbasani total 93.5
Over 93.5
49.5%
@ 2.41+13.1pp
Under 93.5
50.5%
@ 1.38-13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.41
Under
1xBet
1.38

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Pogradeci -1.5
POGR -1.5
25.9%
@ 1.93-19.8pp
ELBA +1.5
74.1%
@ 1.63+19.8pp
Best 5 market prices
POGR
1xBet
1.93
ELBA
1xBet
1.63
Spread Pogradeci +1.5 · main line
POGR +1.5
30.7%
@ 1.83-20.6pp
ELBA -1.5
69.3%
@ 1.89+20.6pp
Best 5 market prices
POGR
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.70
ELBA
1xBet
1.89
Bet365
1.83
Spread Pogradeci +4.5
POGR +4.5
41.7%
@ 1.39-22.0pp
ELBA -4.5
58.3%
@ 2.44+22.0pp
Best 5 market prices
POGR
1xBet
1.39
ELBA
1xBet
2.44

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -7.2-7.2Q1: -5.8-5.8Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: -3.3-3.3Q3Q3: -5.7-5.7Q3: -4.7-4.7Q4Q4: -2.5-2.5Q4: -2.7-2.7
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -7.2-7.2Q1: -5.8-5.8Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: -3.3-3.3Q3Q3: -5.7-5.7Q3: -4.7-4.7Q4Q4: -2.5-2.5Q4: -2.7-2.7
PogradeciElbasani
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PogradeciLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vllaznia
#3
L
23-53
23
53
-30
H07/03
Superliga
Teuta Durres
#6
L
40-49
40
49
-9
A14/03
Superliga
PBC Flamurtari
#12
W
46-27
46
27
+19
H21/03
Superliga
Apolonia Fier
#4
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H29/03
Superliga
Partizani Tirana
#10
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H04/04
Superliga
Tirana
#2
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H10/04
Superliga
Skenderbeu
#6
L
39-70
39
70
-31
H13/10
Superliga
Vllaznia
#1
L
24-30
24
30
-6
H18/10
Superliga
Tirana
#7
L
33-67
33
67
-34
A24/10
Superliga
Kamza Basket
#2
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A08/11
Superliga
81.2Avg total
35.9Scored
45.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 88.5
Last 30 (26)36.348.084.3-11.815%35%
Last 30 at home (13)35.447.983.3-12.523%23%
Last 30 away (13)37.248.285.3-11.08%46%
Last 10 (10)35.945.381.2-9.420%30%
Last 5 (5)33.450.283.6-16.80%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)34.951.486.2-16.55%45%
vs Similar (2)35.042.577.5-7.550%0%
vs Weaker (4)43.834.278.0+9.550%0%
This opponent (Elbasani) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ElbasaniLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Teuta Durres
#6
L
22-42
22
42
-20
A08/03
Superliga
PBC Flamurtari
#12
W
49-48
49
48
+1
H15/03
Superliga
Apolonia Fier
#4
L
32-51
32
51
-19
A22/03
Superliga
Partizani Tirana
#10
W
54-35
54
35
+19
H29/03
Superliga
Tirana
#2
L
44-69
44
69
-25
A04/04
Superliga
Kamza Basket
#5
L
33-54
33
54
-21
H07/04
Superliga
Vllaznia
#1
L
39-59
39
59
-20
A09/10
Superliga
Tirana
#7
W
47-44
47
44
+3
H18/10
Superliga
Kamza Basket
#2
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H30/10
Superliga
Apolonia Fier
#5
L
39-48
39
48
-9
A08/11
Superliga
89.1Avg total
40.0Scored
49.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 88.5
Last 30 (30)37.851.789.5-13.920%57%
Last 30 at home (14)39.549.188.6-9.629%64%
Last 30 away (16)36.354.090.3-17.712%50%
Last 10 (10)40.049.189.1-9.130%50%
Last 5 (5)39.849.289.0-9.420%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (24)35.855.290.9-19.44%58%
vs Similar (2)42.535.077.5+7.550%0%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)47.839.587.2+8.2100%75%
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
POGR win
no forecast
@ 1.86
ELBA win
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Spread Pogradeci +0.5 · main line
POGR +0.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
ELBA -0.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 88.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Pogradeci 1st half total 43.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Elbasani 1st half total 44.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: POGR + total 88.5
POGR & over
no forecast
@ 3.80
POGR & under
no forecast
@ 3.90
1st half: Draw + total 88.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 29.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 29.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
POGR
no forecast
@ 2.00
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
ELBA
no forecast
@ 1.83

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
POGR win + total 176.5
🔒 Pro
ELBA win + total 176.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: POGR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: ELBA leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
Quarters won (POGR:ELBA): POGR wins more
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Elbasani +276.6%1.79
Pinnacle
1.79		----+26.3pp
Elbasani -171.1%1.84
Pinnacle
1.84		----+22.2pp
Elbasani win71.8%1.78
Pinnacle
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Bet365
1.74		--+21.8pp
Elbasani over 87.571.8%1.55
1xBet
1.55		----+16.1pp
Pogradeci under 93.574.2%1.37
1xBet
1.37		----+10.1pp
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■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 6 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pogradecitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pogradeci: 80.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws6.1 pts a game · 8% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.1 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.620.5
56.0%
56.6%41.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.311.2
35.8%
34.4%33.6
🏀 Free throws9.46.1
64.9%
67.5%6.1
They take 67.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Elbasanitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Elbasani: 72.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.4 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.1 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.919.7
49.4%
56.6%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.48.0
31.5%
34.4%24.0
🏀 Free throws14.19.4
66.7%
67.5%9.4
They take 65.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pogradeci
LLLLLLLWLL
Elbasani
LLWLLLWLWL
#11
League position
#8
-23.7
Net rating
-32.5
95.5
Offensive rating
78.7
119.2
Defensive rating
111.2
54.9%
Effective FG%
48.5%
60.8%
Opp. effective FG%
58.8%
11.7%
Turnover %
19.3%
0.14
Free-throw rate
0.22
35.8%
3-point %
31.5%
72.6%
Assist %
43.3%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence95.5 · 78.7Defence119.2 · 111.2Shooting54.9% · 48.5%3-point %35.8% · 31.5%Ball care11.7% · 19.3%Free throws0.14 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)10% · 30%
■ Pogradeci   ■ Elbasani
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Pogradeci wins
1
Elbasani wins
DateGameScore
17/01/26Pogradeci v Elbasani113-111 OT
05/10/25Elbasani v Pogradeci98-64
Pogradecilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26AKamza Basket67-87
24/10/26ATirana65-110
18/10/26HVllaznia54-69
13/10/26HSkenderbeu89-119
10/04/26HTirana71-114
04/04/26HPartizani Tirana82-89
29/03/26HApolonia Fier65-68
21/03/26HPBC Flamurtari95-76
14/03/26ATeuta Durres88-94
07/03/26HVllaznia72-98
Elbasanilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26AApolonia Fier74-116
30/10/26HKamza Basket82-84
18/10/26HTirana89-86
09/10/26AVllaznia80-97
07/04/26HKamza Basket80-112
04/04/26ATirana89-139
29/03/26HPartizani Tirana100-81
22/03/26AApolonia Fier62-91
15/03/26HPBC Flamurtari93-89
08/03/26ATeuta Durres74-93

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pogradeci
Superliga 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLL0%
HomeLL0%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game68.871.566.0
Allowed / game96.294.098.5
Point differential-27.5-22.5-32.5
Avg total165.0165.5164.5
Over 176.525%50%0%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Elbasani
Superliga 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLL25%
HomeWL50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game81.285.577.0
Allowed / game95.885.0106.5
Point differential-14.5+0.5-29.5
Avg total177.0170.5183.5
Over 176.550%0%100%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Vllaznia660100%90.074.7+15.3
2 Kamza Basket440100%81.872.0+9.8
3 Teuta Durres54180%88.874.2+14.6
4 Beselidhja43175%102.876.0+26.8
5 Apolonia Fier43175%91.870.0+21.8
6 Skenderbeu53260%93.080.2+12.8
7 Tirana62433%86.587.8-1.3
8 Elbasani41325%81.295.8-14.5
9 Partizani Tirana61517%72.299.2-27.0
10 PBC Flamurtari6060%75.396.0-20.7
11 Pogradeci4040%68.896.2-27.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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