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Saga vs Nagasaki Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 06 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 81-91
17-24 21-20 16-20 27-27
Position#15
Record8-8
FormLWLWW
Points / game73.4
Allowed / game72.6
vs
Position#17
Record10-6
FormLLWLW
Points / game86.7
Allowed / game84.6
JapanB League· Saga Arena
Other2023-24
Meetings · Saga v Nagasaki
21 Oct 2026
SAGA66
NAGA84
05 Mar 2025
SAGA86
NAGA92
02 Dec 2024
SAGA78
NAGA93
01 Dec 2024
SAGA80
NAGA51
14 Apr 2024
SAGA73
NAGA80
13 Apr 2024
SAGA61
NAGA63
06 Dec 2023
SAGA81
NAGA91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nagasaki winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Shinshu
#23
W
80-74
80
74
+6
71avg 64
H25/10
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#7
W
80-59
80
59
+21
76avg 64
A28/10
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#7
W
74-68
74
68
+6
70avg 64
A29/10
B League
Akita
#14
L
65-66
65
66
-1
51avg 64
H04/11
B League
Akita
#14
W
70-64
70
64
+6
62avg 64
H05/11
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
61-80
61
80
-19
42avg 64
A08/11
B League
Chiba
#9
W
95-76
95
76
+19
94avg 64
A11/11
B League
Chiba
#9
L
72-78
72
78
-6
50avg 64
A12/11
B League
Osaka
#18
W
84-79
84
79
+5
76avg 64
A02/12
B League
Osaka
#18
W
79-45
79
45
+34
78avg 64
A03/12
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-21
21-15
21-21
18-17
19-16
20-18
18-8
23-17
19-14
19-18
12-18
24-18
15-24
21-11
11-14
18-17
15-14
17-15
21-23
17-12
13-26
12-18
18-19
18-17
29-16
28-11
21-24
17-25
16-25
21-14
21-17
14-22
22-21
19-18
25-17
18-23
21-9
20-10
25-12
13-14
144.9Avg total
76.0Scored
68.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)73.472.6146.0+0.950%
Season at home (7)71.175.4146.6-4.343%
Season away (9)75.270.3145.6+4.956%
Last 10 (10)76.068.9144.9+7.170%
Last 5 (5)78.271.6149.8+6.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)67.381.3148.7-14.033%
vs Similar ◀ (10)73.071.9144.9+1.140%
vs Weaker (3)81.066.0147.0+15.0100%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Shimane
#12
W
77-73
77
73
+4
71avg 81
H25/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#8
L
82-97
82
97
-15
76avg 81
H28/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#8
W
81-76
81
76
+5
71avg 81
H29/10
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
98-81
98
81
+17
92avg 81
A04/11
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
L
88-92
88
92
-4
72avg 81
A05/11
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
97-101
97
101
-4
89avg 81
A08/11
B League
Sendai
#16
L
70-94
70
94
-24
60avg 81
A11/11
B League
Sendai
#16
W
86-81
86
81
+5
86avg 81
A12/11
B League
Brave Thunders
#10
L
77-80 OT
77
80
-3
no box
H02/12
B League
Brave Thunders
#10
W
92-85
92
85
+7
90avg 81
H03/12
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-11
19-25
22-16
13-21
20-31
22-17
13-23
27-26
25-25
19-15
25-23
12-13
18-19
25-20
31-20
24-22
16-15
29-31
21-22
22-24
22-25
25-19
27-28
23-29
20-28
12-22
22-22
16-22
29-24
24-15
15-22
18-20
11-24
22-16
17-16
20-14
27-23
17-21
23-20
25-21
170.8Avg total
84.8Scored
86.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)86.784.6171.3+2.162%
Season at home (7)84.182.7166.9+1.471%
Season away (9)88.786.1174.8+2.656%
Last 10 (10)84.886.0170.8-1.250%
Last 5 (5)84.488.2172.6-3.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)85.885.0170.8+0.862%
vs Similar ◀ (4)81.283.5164.8-2.250%
vs Weaker (4)94.085.0179.0+9.075%
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: +5.0+5.0Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +0.4+0.4Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -1.2-1.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: +5.0+5.0Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +0.4+0.4Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -1.2-1.2
SagaNagasaki
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shinshu
#23
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H25/10
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#7
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A28/10
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#7
W
38-32
38
32
+6
A29/10
B League
Akita
#14
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H04/11
B League
Akita
#14
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H05/11
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
25-44
25
44
-19
A08/11
B League
Chiba
#9
W
57-27
57
27
+30
A11/11
B League
Chiba
#9
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A12/11
B League
Osaka
#18
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A02/12
B League
Osaka
#18
W
41-19
41
19
+22
A03/12
B League
72.1Avg total
38.7Scored
33.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (16)37.235.973.1+1.462%-
Last 30 at home (7)35.638.774.3-3.157%-
Last 30 away (9)38.633.772.2+4.967%-
Last 10 (10)38.733.472.1+5.380%-
Last 5 (5)40.233.673.8+6.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)30.745.376.0-14.70%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)38.134.472.5+3.770%-
vs Weaker (3)41.031.372.3+9.7100%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shimane
#12
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H25/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#8
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H28/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#8
W
44-40
44
40
+4
H29/10
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
43-39
43
39
+4
A04/11
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
L
45-46
45
46
-1
A05/11
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
W
47-44
47
44
+3
A08/11
B League
Sendai
#16
L
32-50
32
50
-18
A11/11
B League
Sendai
#16
W
53-39
53
39
+14
A12/11
B League
Brave Thunders
#10
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H02/12
B League
Brave Thunders
#10
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H03/12
B League
85.1Avg total
42.5Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (16)45.142.587.6+2.662%-
Last 30 at home (7)42.741.384.0+1.457%-
Last 30 away (9)47.043.490.4+3.667%-
Last 10 (10)42.542.685.1-0.150%-
Last 5 (5)41.843.485.2-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)43.241.684.9+1.662%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)47.542.590.0+5.075%-
vs Weaker (4)46.544.290.8+2.250%-
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 74.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.316.6
47.0%
50.9%33.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.59.1
34.3%
33.5%27.3
🏀 Free throws21.714.3
65.9%
72.0%14.3
They take 61.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 85.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.3 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.520.6
53.5%
50.9%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.910.5
36.3%
33.5%31.5
🏀 Free throws17.912.3
68.7%
72.0%12.3
They take 67.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Saga
WWLWLWLWWW
Nagasaki
WLWLLLWWLW
#15
League position
#17
+9.2
Net rating
+0.3
105.8
Offensive rating
107.4
96.6
Defensive rating
107.1
48.9%
Effective FG%
53.9%
44.8%
Opp. effective FG%
51.7%
15.0%
Turnover %
17.4%
28.5%
Off. rebound %
26.6%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.27
34.3%
3-point %
36.3%
61.1%
Assist %
64.6%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence105.8 · 107.4Defence96.6 · 107.1Shooting48.9% · 53.9%3-point %34.3% · 36.3%Ball care15.0% · 17.4%Off. rebounds28.5% · 26.6%Free throws0.35 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Saga   ■ Nagasaki
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Saga wins
0
Nagasaki wins
No previous meetings.
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/12/23AOsaka79-45
02/12/23AOsaka84-79
12/11/23AChiba72-78
11/11/23AChiba95-76
08/11/23AHiroshima D.61-80
05/11/23HAkita70-64
04/11/23HAkita65-66
29/10/23ASun Rockers Shibuya74-68
28/10/23ASun Rockers Shibuya80-59
25/10/23HShinshu80-74
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/12/23HBrave Thunders92-85
02/12/23HBrave Thunders77-80 OT
12/11/23ASendai86-81
11/11/23ASendai70-94
08/11/23ADiamond Dolphins97-101
05/11/23AIbaraki Robots88-92
04/11/23AIbaraki Robots98-81
29/10/23HSeaHorses Mikawa81-76
28/10/23HSeaHorses Mikawa82-97
25/10/23HShimane77-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Saga
B League 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW50%
HomeLWWLW43%
AwayLWLWW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1679
Win %50%43%56%
Points / game73.471.175.2
Allowed / game72.675.470.3
Point differential+0.9-4.3+4.9
Avg total146.0146.6145.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%0%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %12%29%0%
Nagasaki
B League 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW62%
HomeWLWLW71%
AwayWLLLW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1679
Win %62%71%56%
Points / game86.784.188.7
Allowed / game84.682.786.1
Point differential+2.1+1.4+2.6
Avg total171.3166.9174.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%44%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)75% (4)33% (3)
Overtime %6%14%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alvark1614288%79.662.8+16.9
2 NeoPhoenix1614288%88.676.4+12.2
3 Utsunomiya Brex1613381%77.866.6+11.2
4 Diamond Dolphins1613381%84.277.5+6.8
5 Brave Thunders1613381%80.874.1+6.6
6 Ryukyu1612475%81.977.8+4.2
7 Nagasaki1610662%86.784.6+2.1
8 Hiroshima D.169756%79.073.2+5.8
9 Shimane169756%81.677.8+3.8
10 Osaka169756%80.679.9+0.7
11 Nagoya Fighting Eagles169756%74.675.2-0.7
12 Chiba169756%82.984.4-1.6
13 SeaHorses Mikawa168850%82.478.7+3.8
14 Saga168850%73.472.6+0.9
15 Sendai167944%81.480.5+0.9
16 Sun Rockers Shibuya1661038%76.578.8-2.2
17 Yokohama1661038%74.180.7-6.6
18 Akita1651131%70.076.9-6.9
19 Gunma1651131%74.281.6-7.4
20 Shinshu1641225%75.983.4-7.5
21 Kyoto1641225%75.483.1-7.7
22 Hokkaido1631319%72.681.8-9.1
23 Ibaraki Robots161156%75.486.9-11.5
24 Toyama161156%72.186.6-14.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Saga1721162781
Nagasaki2420202791
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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