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Sampaense vs Lusitania Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 04 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 12:30
Final 80-74
20-16 8-26 23-11 29-21
Position#10
Record-
FormWLLLW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Sampaense 🏆
Portugal
vs
Lusitania
Portugal
Position#3
Record-
FormWWWWW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
PortugalProligaRound 1· Pavilhao Comendador Serafim Marques
Other2025-26
Meetings · Sampaense v Lusitania
02 May 2027
SAMP v LUSI
upcoming
15 Mar 2026
SAMP71
LUSI99
04 Oct 2025
SAMP80
LUSI74
19 Apr 2025
SAMP84
LUSI103
29 Apr 2017
SAMP109
LUSI97
25 Feb 2017
SAMP65
LUSI96
18 Apr 2015
SAMP66
LUSI78
08 Dec 2013
SAMP89
LUSI81
22 Dec 2012
SAMP77
LUSI74
15 Oct 2011
SAMP56
LUSI61
13 Feb 2011
SAMP102
LUSI95
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sampaense winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Lusitania winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SampaensePortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSampaense
Date
Competition
Lusitania
#6
L
80-100
80
100
-20
72avg 71
A22/02
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#16
L
71-93
71
93
-22
63avg 71
H01/03
Proliga
Santo Andre
#9
L
77-82
77
82
-5
65avg 71
A08/03
Proliga
Barreirense
#13
L
87-89
87
89
-2
69avg 71
A15/03
Proliga
Maia
#8
W
96-72
96
72
+24
96avg 71
H22/03
Proliga
Benfica Lisboa B
#12
W
85-71
85
71
+14
79avg 71
H29/03
Proliga
Ginasio
#14
L
79-83
79
83
-4
72avg 71
A05/04
Proliga
Lusitania
#6
L
84-103
84
103
-19
73avg 71
H19/04
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#16
L
77-81 OT
77
81
-4
66avg 71
A25/04
Proliga
Santo Andre
#9
W
82-77
82
77
+5
79avg 71
H04/05
Proliga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-27
20-24
15-20
21-29
19-31
15-17
16-19
21-26
13-16
26-21
17-20
21-25
17-25
21-30
24-18
25-16
20-13
29-23
17-16
30-20
20-17
25-25
20-13
20-16
27-19
16-27
21-15
15-22
25-26
15-24
15-34
29-19
21-21
12-13
17-16
18-18
20-15
27-19
15-15
20-28
166.9Avg total
81.8Scored
85.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.885.1166.9-3.330%
Last 5 (5)81.483.0164.4-1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)74.388.5162.7-14.218%
vs Similar (15)85.682.0167.6+3.653%
vs Weaker (4)77.281.5158.8-4.250%
This opponent (Lusitania) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LusitaniaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLusitania
Date
Competition
Sampaense
#11
W
100-80
100
80
+20
100avg 73
H22/02
Proliga
Benfica Lisboa B
#12
W
94-82
94
82
+12
89avg 73
A02/03
Proliga
Ginasio
#14
L
102-106
102
106
-4
91avg 73
H08/03
Proliga
Maia
#8
L
86-93
86
93
-7
75avg 73
A16/03
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#16
W
85-71
85
71
+14
79avg 73
H23/03
Proliga
Santo Andre
#9
W
74-70
74
70
+4
60avg 73
A30/03
Proliga
Barreirense
#13
W
94-82
94
82
+12
91avg 73
H05/04
Proliga
Sampaense
#11
W
103-84
103
84
+19
100avg 73
A19/04
Proliga
Benfica Lisboa B
#12
W
85-73
85
73
+12
82avg 73
H26/04
Proliga
Ginasio
#14
W
95-92
95
92
+3
88avg 73
A04/05
Proliga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-24
24-20
20-15
29-21
19-33
27-18
28-9
20-22
30-29
32-25
17-20
23-32
28-19
14-30
17-18
27-26
18-8
22-25
25-14
20-24
15-16
23-13
17-21
19-20
25-26
22-23
28-12
19-21
26-25
24-15
34-15
19-29
19-20
16-23
24-15
26-15
30-30
21-25
28-17
16-20
175.1Avg total
91.8Scored
83.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)91.883.3175.1+8.580%
Last 5 (5)90.280.2170.4+10.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)64.093.5157.5-29.50%
vs Similar (10)68.777.2145.9-8.520%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)86.577.4163.9+9.178%
This opponent (Sampaense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -0.4-0.4Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: +8.2+8.2Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: -1.2-1.2
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -0.4-0.4Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: +8.2+8.2Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: -1.2-1.2
SampaenseLusitania
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SampaenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lusitania
#6
L
44-51
44
51
-7
A22/02
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#16
L
34-48
34
48
-14
H01/03
Proliga
Santo Andre
#9
W
39-37
39
37
+2
A08/03
Proliga
Barreirense
#13
L
38-55
38
55
-17
A15/03
Proliga
Maia
#8
W
49-36
49
36
+13
H22/03
Proliga
Benfica Lisboa B
#12
W
45-42
45
42
+3
H29/03
Proliga
Ginasio
#14
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A05/04
Proliga
Lusitania
#6
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H19/04
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#16
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A25/04
Proliga
Santo Andre
#9
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H04/05
Proliga
84.5Avg total
41.2Scored
43.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.941.781.6-1.847%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.440.483.8+3.075%-
Last 30 away (14)35.943.379.2-7.414%-
Last 10 (10)41.243.384.5-2.140%-
Last 5 (5)41.641.282.8+0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)37.941.279.1-3.345%-
vs Similar (15)42.242.584.7-0.353%-
vs Weaker (4)36.840.277.0-3.525%-
This opponent (Lusitania) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LusitaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sampaense
#11
W
51-44
51
44
+7
H22/02
Proliga
Benfica Lisboa B
#12
L
46-51
46
51
-5
A02/03
Proliga
Ginasio
#14
W
62-54
62
54
+8
H08/03
Proliga
Maia
#8
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A16/03
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#16
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H23/03
Proliga
Santo Andre
#9
W
38-29
38
29
+9
A30/03
Proliga
Barreirense
#13
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H05/04
Proliga
Sampaense
#11
W
50-40
50
40
+10
A19/04
Proliga
Benfica Lisboa B
#12
L
35-43
35
43
-8
H26/04
Proliga
Ginasio
#14
L
51-55
51
55
-4
A04/05
Proliga
90.9Avg total
46.2Scored
44.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.938.877.7+0.247%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.539.879.3-0.340%-
Last 30 away (15)38.437.776.1+0.753%-
Last 10 (10)46.244.790.9+1.550%-
Last 5 (5)44.243.287.4+1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)29.552.081.5-22.50%-
vs Similar (10)31.935.066.9-3.130%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)43.939.483.3+4.561%-
This opponent (Sampaense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sampaensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sampaense: 81.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.0 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.0 points a game
52%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.922.5
57.8%
50.0%45.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.07.4
33.6%
30.3%22.2
🏀 Free throws20.313.8
68.0%
67.4%13.8
They take 60.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Lusitaniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lusitania: 91.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.0 points a game
52%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.921.1
54.2%
50.0%42.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.311.3
38.6%
30.3%33.9
🏀 Free throws21.114.9
70.6%
67.4%14.9
They take 68.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sampaense
WLLLWWLLLL
Lusitania
WWWWWWLLWW
#10
League position
#3
-4.3
Net rating
+11.4
112.3
Offensive rating
116.1
116.6
Defensive rating
104.7
55.2%
Effective FG%
55.8%
57.6%
Opp. effective FG%
56.1%
17.5%
Turnover %
19.1%
32.2%
Off. rebound %
35.5%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.31
33.6%
3-point %
38.6%
45.5%
Assist %
59.9%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence112.3 · 116.1Defence116.6 · 104.7Shooting55.2% · 55.8%3-point %33.6% · 38.6%Ball care17.5% · 19.1%Off. rebounds32.2% · 35.5%Free throws0.33 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)30% · 80%
■ Sampaense   ■ Lusitania
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Sampaense wins
8
Lusitania wins
DateGameScore
19/04/25Sampaense v Lusitania84-103
22/02/25Lusitania v Sampaense100-80
29/04/17Sampaense v Lusitania109-97
02/04/17Lusitania v Sampaense88-87
25/02/17Sampaense v Lusitania65-96
10/12/16Lusitania v Sampaense88-83
18/04/15Sampaense v Lusitania66-78
10/01/15Lusitania v Sampaense68-60
08/03/14Lusitania v Sampaense78-77
08/12/13Sampaense v Lusitania89-81
Sampaenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/05/25HSanto Andre82-77
25/04/25AGalitos Aveiro77-81 OT
19/04/25HLusitania84-103
05/04/25AGinasio79-83
29/03/25HBenfica Lisboa B85-71
22/03/25HMaia96-72
15/03/25ABarreirense87-89
08/03/25ASanto Andre77-82
01/03/25HGalitos Aveiro71-93
22/02/25ALusitania80-100
Lusitanialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/05/25AGinasio95-92
26/04/25HBenfica Lisboa B85-73
19/04/25ASampaense103-84
05/04/25HBarreirense94-82
30/03/25ASanto Andre74-70
23/03/25HGalitos Aveiro85-71
16/03/25AMaia86-93
08/03/25HGinasio102-106
02/03/25ABenfica Lisboa B94-82
22/02/25HSampaense100-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sampaense
Proliga 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Lusitania
Proliga 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Ginasio Olhanense110100%93.086.0+7.0
2 Galomar1010%86.093.0-7.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sampaense208232980
Lusitania1626112174
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