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Sao Paulo vs Cerrado Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 04 Apr 2024
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 79-70
24-18 20-18 15-14 20-20
Position#11
Record17-16
FormWLLWW
Points / game78.9
Allowed / game79.6
vs
Position#17
Record8-24
FormLLLLL
Points / game74.7
Allowed / game76.9
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Morumbi
Other2023-24
Meetings · Sao Paulo v Cerrado
04 Apr 2024
SAO 79
CERR70
15 Apr 2023
SAO 95
CERR64
26 Oct 2021
SAO 76
CERR78
15 Dec 2020
SAO 91
CERR83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Cerrado winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Quimsa
#3
W
94-82
94
82
+12
86avg 73
H13/02
Champions League Americas
Minas
#3
W
94-86
94
86
+8
90avg 73
A15/02
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
82-90
82
90
-8
77avg 73
H17/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
79-74
79
74
+5
78avg 73
H29/02
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
74-67
74
67
+7
72avg 73
H20/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
71-60
71
60
+11
67avg 73
H22/03
NBB
Botafogo
#15
L
79-83
79
83
-4
73avg 73
A25/03
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
78-88
78
88
-10
78avg 73
A29/03
NBB
Vasco
#4
W
80-70
80
70
+10
78avg 73
A30/03
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
93-84
93
84
+9
87avg 73
H02/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-15
28-19
15-21
28-27
17-28
27-11
22-23
28-24
19-24
23-14
17-22
23-30
23-30
20-17
14-14
22-13
24-20
20-13
14-22
16-12
11-13
18-20
20-11
22-16
21-20
21-25
15-12
22-26
23-30
21-22
14-22
20-14
14-13
15-23
20-15
31-19
23-29
27-11
20-22
23-22
160.8Avg total
82.4Scored
78.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)78.979.6158.5-0.752%
Season at home (17)79.278.3157.5+0.953%
Season away (16)78.580.9159.4-2.450%
Last 10 (10)82.478.4160.8+4.070%
Last 5 (5)80.277.0157.2+3.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)82.990.1173.0-7.244%
vs Similar ◀ (12)81.079.8160.8+1.250%
vs Weaker (9)77.072.2149.2+4.878%
This opponent (Cerrado) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CerradoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCerrado
Date
Competition
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
103-75
103
75
+28
100avg 66
A05/02
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
86-72
86
72
+14
87avg 66
A07/02
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
83-86
83
86
-3
89avg 66
H15/02
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
95-73
95
73
+22
96avg 66
A01/03
NBB
Botafogo
#15
L
79-82
79
82
-3
74avg 66
H08/03
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
81-84
81
84
-3
70avg 66
H10/03
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
69-71
69
71
-2
52avg 66
A20/03
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
65-70
65
70
-5
58avg 66
A22/03
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
69-86
69
86
-17
59avg 66
H26/03
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
71-82
71
82
-11
63avg 66
A02/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-17
22-13
27-21
29-24
16-18
25-16
15-20
30-18
19-25
24-23
22-22
18-16
22-15
28-19
25-21
20-18
23-19
11-20
20-23
25-20
28-24
23-12
12-24
18-24
21-18
20-18
11-20
17-15
16-16
19-20
21-16
9-18
10-30
15-18
22-17
22-21
14-20
24-21
16-20
17-21
158.2Avg total
80.1Scored
78.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)74.776.9151.6-2.225%
Season at home (15)74.975.0149.9-0.127%
Season away (17)74.678.6153.2-4.024%
Last 10 (10)80.178.1158.2+2.030%
Last 5 (5)71.078.6149.6-7.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)72.881.6154.4-8.87%
vs Similar ◀ (8)70.175.5145.6-5.425%
vs Weaker (8)86.472.4158.8+14.062%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.4-2.4Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +4.5+4.5Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: -1.3-1.3Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: +1.0+1.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.4-2.4Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +4.5+4.5Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: -1.3-1.3Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: +1.0+1.0
Sao PauloCerrado
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Quimsa
#3
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H13/02
Champions League Americas
Minas
#3
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A15/02
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H17/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
L
43-47
43
47
-4
H29/02
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
44-33
44
33
+11
H20/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
L
29-33
29
33
-4
H22/03
NBB
Botafogo
#15
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A25/03
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A29/03
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
29-36
29
36
-7
A30/03
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H02/04
NBB
81.5Avg total
41.8Scored
39.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.440.279.6-0.840%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.439.079.4+1.444%-
Last 30 away (14)38.241.579.7-3.336%-
Last 10 (10)41.839.781.5+2.150%-
Last 5 (5)38.841.280.0-2.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)42.642.485.0+0.144%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)38.241.179.3-2.833%-
vs Weaker (9)37.836.774.4+1.144%-
This opponent (Cerrado) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CerradoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
47-30
47
30
+17
A05/02
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
41-34
41
34
+7
A07/02
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H15/02
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
50-34
50
34
+16
A01/03
NBB
Botafogo
#15
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H08/03
NBB
Vasco
#4
W
51-36
51
36
+15
H10/03
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A20/03
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A22/03
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
25-48
25
48
-23
H26/03
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A02/04
NBB
78.7Avg total
40.5Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.237.776.0+0.547%-
Last 30 at home (13)38.536.675.1+1.862%-
Last 30 away (17)38.138.676.6-0.535%-
Last 10 (10)40.538.278.7+2.350%-
Last 5 (5)38.039.477.4-1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)37.040.977.9-3.921%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)34.937.071.9-2.150%-
vs Weaker (8)43.832.976.6+10.988%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 81.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.116.8
54.0%
51.8%33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.611.0
39.9%
33.9%33.0
🏀 Free throws18.215.0
82.4%
72.6%15.0
They take 58.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Cerradotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cerrado: 79.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.918.8
50.9%
51.8%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.99.2
36.9%
33.9%27.6
🏀 Free throws19.314.1
73.1%
72.6%14.1
They take 61.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Apr 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Paulo
WWLLWWWLWW
Cerrado
LLLLLLWLWW
#11
League position
#17
+6.0
Net rating
+2.5
112.0
Offensive rating
109.9
105.9
Defensive rating
107.5
56.7%
Effective FG%
52.8%
48.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.5%
19.7%
Turnover %
19.4%
26.2%
Off. rebound %
35.6%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.31
39.9%
3-point %
36.9%
62.2%
Assist %
54.6%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence112.0 · 109.9Defence105.9 · 107.5Shooting56.7% · 52.8%3-point %39.9% · 36.9%Ball care19.7% · 19.4%Off. rebounds26.2% · 35.6%Free throws0.31 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)70% · 30%
■ Sao Paulo   ■ Cerrado
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Sao Paulo wins
4
Cerrado wins
DateGameScore
21/12/23Cerrado v Sao Paulo82-74
15/04/23Sao Paulo v Cerrado95-64
15/12/22Cerrado v Sao Paulo101-94
27/01/22Cerrado v Sao Paulo86-84
26/10/21Sao Paulo v Cerrado76-78 OT
01/04/21Cerrado v Sao Paulo80-86
15/12/20Sao Paulo v Cerrado91-83
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/04/24HBrasilia93-84
30/03/24AVasco80-70
29/03/24AFlamengo78-88
25/03/24ABotafogo79-83
22/03/24HUniao Corinthians71-60
20/03/24HCaxias do Sul74-67
29/02/24HPinheiros79-74
17/02/24HCorinthians Paulista82-90
15/02/24AMinas94-86
13/02/24HQuimsa94-82
Cerradolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/04/24APaulistano71-82
26/03/24HBauru69-86
22/03/24AMogi65-70
20/03/24ASao Jose69-71
10/03/24HVasco81-84
08/03/24HBotafogo79-82
01/03/24ABrasilia95-73
15/02/24HFlamengo83-86
07/02/24ACaxias do Sul86-72
05/02/24AUniao Corinthians103-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Paulo
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW52%
HomeLWWWW53%
AwayWWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331716
Win %52%53%50%
Points / game78.979.278.5
Allowed / game79.678.380.9
Point differential-0.7+0.9-2.4
Avg total158.5157.5159.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%18%6%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)50% (6)33% (3)
Overtime %3%6%0%
Cerrado
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL25%
HomeLLLLL27%
AwayWWLLL24%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321517
Win %25%27%24%
Points / game74.774.974.6
Allowed / game76.975.078.6
Point differential-2.2-0.1-4.0
Avg total151.6149.9153.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%13%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won9% (11)0% (5)17% (6)
Overtime %3%7%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Franca3429585%87.776.2+11.5
2 Flamengo3429585%85.373.9+11.4
3 Minas3325876%85.973.4+12.5
4 Vasco33231070%75.973.1+2.8
5 Bauru35231266%82.079.2+2.8
6 Unifacisa34211362%83.879.3+4.5
7 Paulistano33201361%75.671.2+4.4
8 Cearense33181555%79.477.6+1.8
9 Corinthians Paulista33181555%81.579.8+1.7
10 Sao Jose34181653%79.978.1+1.9
11 Sao Paulo33171652%78.979.6-0.7
12 Pato33151845%78.379.9-1.6
13 Pinheiros32131941%74.878.3-3.6
14 Uniao Corinthians33102330%75.184.0-8.9
15 Botafogo3492526%79.187.9-8.8
16 Cerrado3282425%74.776.9-2.2
17 Mogi3382524%73.879.9-6.1
18 Caxias do Sul3382524%72.781.1-8.4
19 Brasilia3342912%72.688.7-16.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sao Paulo2420152079
Cerrado1818142070
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