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Minas vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 15 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 86-94
28-17 11-27 23-22 24-28
Position#3
Record21-3
FormWWWLW
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game71.7
vs
Position#11
Record11-13
FormWLWWW
Points / game78.0
Allowed / game80.2
BrazilNBB· Arena Minas Tenis Clube
Other2023-24
Meetings · Minas v Sao Paulo
25 Jan 2025
MINA82
SAO 66
23 Dec 2024
MINA77
SAO 63
13 May 2024
MINA98
SAO 67
11 May 2024
MINA104
SAO 79
03 May 2024
MINA84
SAO 59
15 Feb 2024
MINA86
SAO 94
14 Mar 2023
MINA87
SAO 76
07 Apr 2022
MINA79
SAO 93
31 Mar 2022
MINA61
SAO 82
22 Jan 2022
MINA78
SAO 77
10 May 2021
MINA70
SAO 88
13 Apr 2021
MINA75
SAO 58
19 Jan 2021
MINA70
SAO 78
19 Dec 2020
MINA96
SAO 92
07 Feb 2020
MINA85
SAO 87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MinasBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMinas
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
84-55
84
55
+29
82avg 85
H27/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
95-71
95
71
+24
100avg 85
H29/12
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
89-52
89
52
+37
94avg 85
H08/01
NBB
Flamengo
#2
W
86-78
86
78
+8
84avg 85
H11/01
NBB
Vasco
#4
W
81-61
81
61
+20
78avg 85
H13/01
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
111-68
111
68
+43
115avg 85
A17/01
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
84-71
84
71
+13
85avg 85
A19/01
NBB
Cearense
#6
W
73-69
73
69
+4
70avg 85
H27/01
Super 8
Unifacisa
#2
L
86-91
86
91
-5
73avg 85
H30/01
Super 8
Mogi
#14
W
102-65
102
65
+37
110avg 85
H08/02
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-22
26-14
23-4
18-15
26-14
26-14
19-14
24-29
26-5
21-12
25-18
17-17
21-19
28-18
23-22
14-19
22-8
15-16
22-17
22-20
34-19
25-16
22-22
30-11
24-20
23-11
20-25
17-15
31-20
15-15
12-14
15-20
21-19
19-21
24-26
22-25
35-10
30-19
22-18
15-18
157.2Avg total
89.1Scored
68.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)87.071.7158.8+15.388%
Season at home (13)86.771.3158.0+15.485%
Season away (11)87.572.2159.6+15.391%
Last 10 (10)89.168.1157.2+21.090%
Last 5 (5)91.272.8164.0+18.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)91.591.8183.2-0.250%
vs Similar (4)82.580.0162.5+2.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)87.971.0158.9+16.890%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Bauru
#5
L
89-93 OT
89
93
-4
no box
H06/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
84-98
84
98
-14
73avg 71
H08/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
84-107
84
107
-23
79avg 71
A11/01
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
81-75
81
75
+6
74avg 71
A13/01
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
90-71
90
71
+19
92avg 71
H23/01
NBB
Quimsa
#3
W
87-84
87
84
+3
80avg 71
A28/01
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#7
L
82-86
82
86
-4
75avg 71
A29/01
Champions League Americas
Pato
#12
W
80-74
80
74
+6
78avg 71
A07/02
NBB
Nacional
#7
W
93-76
93
76
+17
89avg 71
H11/02
Champions League Americas
Quimsa
#3
W
94-82
94
82
+12
86avg 71
H13/02
Champions League Americas
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-23
17-24
33-21
13-16
21-24
26-25
15-22
22-27
13-24
26-29
23-31
22-23
18-20
25-16
20-22
18-17
31-12
16-16
26-24
17-19
20-22
23-20
23-22
21-20
24-22
22-24
17-20
19-20
15-13
21-20
24-15
20-26
15-9
32-22
24-21
22-24
23-15
28-19
15-21
28-27
171.0Avg total
86.4Scored
84.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)78.080.2158.2-2.146%
Season at home (12)79.079.7158.7-0.742%
Season away (12)77.180.7157.8-3.650%
Last 10 (10)86.484.6171.0+1.860%
Last 5 (5)87.280.4167.6+6.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)80.688.8169.5-8.236%
vs Similar (14)79.680.0159.6-0.443%
vs Weaker (5)75.271.2146.4+4.080%
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-13-6+0+6+13Q1Q1: +10.1+10.1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q2Q2: +7.2+7.2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -1.7-1.7
-13-6+0+6+13Q1Q1: +10.1+10.1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q2Q2: +7.2+7.2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -1.7-1.7
MinasSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MinasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H27/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
52-28
52
28
+24
H29/12
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
47-17
47
17
+30
H08/01
NBB
Flamengo
#2
W
49-37
49
37
+12
H11/01
NBB
Vasco
#4
W
37-24
37
24
+13
H13/01
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
59-35
59
35
+24
A17/01
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
47-31
47
31
+16
A19/01
NBB
Cearense
#6
W
46-35
46
35
+11
H27/01
Super 8
Unifacisa
#2
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H30/01
Super 8
Mogi
#14
W
65-29
65
29
+36
H08/02
NBB
79.7Avg total
48.5Scored
31.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.936.383.2+10.777%-
Last 30 at home (17)46.734.481.1+12.482%-
Last 30 away (13)47.238.886.0+8.569%-
Last 10 (10)48.531.279.7+17.390%-
Last 5 (5)51.434.085.4+17.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)48.845.894.5+3.050%-
vs Similar (4)44.038.582.5+5.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)47.234.181.3+13.186%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bauru
#5
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H06/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H08/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A11/01
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A13/01
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H23/01
NBB
Quimsa
#3
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A28/01
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#7
D
46-46
46
46
+0
A29/01
Champions League Americas
Pato
#12
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A07/02
NBB
Nacional
#7
W
47-31
47
31
+16
H11/02
Champions League Americas
Quimsa
#3
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H13/02
Champions League Americas
83.6Avg total
43.7Scored
39.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.540.879.3-2.433%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.541.081.5-0.533%-
Last 30 away (15)36.540.777.1-4.233%-
Last 10 (10)43.739.983.6+3.860%-
Last 5 (5)44.637.281.8+7.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)40.741.582.2-0.745%-
vs Similar (14)37.942.180.1-4.221%-
vs Weaker (5)35.035.870.8-0.840%-
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Minastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minas: 88.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.020.0
58.8%
51.8%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.910.8
37.4%
33.9%32.4
🏀 Free throws21.916.3
74.4%
72.6%16.3
They take 62.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 83.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.819.5
59.5%
51.8%39.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.69.8
33.1%
33.9%29.4
🏀 Free throws18.814.9
79.3%
72.6%14.9
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Feb 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Minas
WLWWWWWWWW
Sao Paulo
WWWLWWWLLL
#3
League position
#11
+30.0
Net rating
+3.7
119.8
Offensive rating
112.6
89.8
Defensive rating
109.0
57.6%
Effective FG%
54.8%
40.8%
Opp. effective FG%
50.5%
16.9%
Turnover %
15.9%
32.5%
Off. rebound %
24.1%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.30
37.4%
3-point %
33.1%
68.2%
Assist %
54.3%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence119.8 · 112.6Defence89.8 · 109.0Shooting57.6% · 54.8%3-point %37.4% · 33.1%Ball care16.9% · 15.9%Off. rebounds32.5% · 24.1%Free throws0.35 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)90% · 60%
■ Minas   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Minas wins
7
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
23/11/23Sao Paulo v Minas75-83
14/03/23Minas v Sao Paulo87-76
27/12/22Sao Paulo v Minas100-83
07/04/22Minas v Sao Paulo79-93
31/03/22Minas v Sao Paulo61-82
22/01/22Minas v Sao Paulo78-77
04/01/22Sao Paulo v Minas91-87
15/05/21Sao Paulo v Minas80-79
12/05/21Sao Paulo v Minas90-85
10/05/21Minas v Sao Paulo70-88
Minaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/02/24HMogi102-65
30/01/24HUnifacisa86-91
27/01/24HCearense73-69
19/01/24ACerrado84-71
17/01/24ABrasilia111-68
13/01/24HVasco81-61
11/01/24HFlamengo86-78
08/01/24HBotafogo89-52
29/12/23HUniao Corinthians95-71
27/12/23HCaxias do Sul84-55
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/02/24HQuimsa94-82
11/02/24HNacional93-76
07/02/24APato80-74
29/01/24ANacional82-86
28/01/24AQuimsa87-84
23/01/24HPaulistano90-71
13/01/24ACearense81-75
11/01/24AUnifacisa84-107
08/01/24HFranca84-98
06/01/24HBauru89-93 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Minas
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW88%
HomeWWWWW85%
AwayWLWWW91%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241311
Win %88%85%91%
Points / game87.086.787.5
Allowed / game71.771.372.2
Point differential+15.3+15.4+15.3
Avg total158.8158.0159.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%54%73%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)67% (3)-
Overtime %4%8%0%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW46%
HomeWLLLW42%
AwayLWLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %46%42%50%
Points / game78.079.077.1
Allowed / game80.279.780.7
Point differential-2.1-0.7-3.6
Avg total158.2158.7157.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%17%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)40% (5)50% (2)
Overtime %4%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas2421388%87.071.7+15.3
2 Flamengo2420483%86.274.7+11.6
3 Franca2420483%87.375.7+11.6
4 Vasco2417771%75.371.6+3.7
5 Paulistano2416867%74.271.5+2.7
6 Bauru2415962%79.578.1+1.4
7 Unifacisa25151060%82.779.2+3.5
8 Sao Jose24131154%81.076.7+4.3
9 Cearense26141254%78.877.0+1.8
10 Corinthians Paulista24111346%78.878.4+0.5
11 Pinheiros24111346%76.778.3-1.6
12 Sao Paulo24111346%78.080.2-2.1
13 Pato25111444%77.178.6-1.5
14 Caxias do Sul2581732%72.679.9-7.3
15 Uniao Corinthians2581732%73.182.3-9.2
16 Cerrado2471729%74.176.1-2.0
17 Botafogo2662023%77.386.1-8.8
18 Mogi2442017%73.080.8-7.8
19 Brasilia2442017%70.685.4-14.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Minas2811232486
Sao Paulo1727222894
← all games of the day
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