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Texas State vs Southern Miss Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 17 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 21:30
Final 74-67
27-28 47-39
Position#125
Record10-9
FormLWLLW
Points / game74.1
Allowed / game71.2
vs
Position#174
Record11-8
FormWWWWL
Points / game75.4
Allowed / game73.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Texas State v Southern Miss
13 Nov 2026
TEXA v SOUT
upcoming
06 Mar 2026
TEXA77
SOUT81
17 Jan 2026
TEXA74
SOUT67
18 Jan 2025
TEXA85
SOUT82
03 Feb 2024
TEXA60
SOUT55
24 Feb 2023
TEXA69
SOUT79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Southern Miss winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lehigh
#197
L
74-78 OT
74
78
-4
H29/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A04/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
86-83
86
83
+3
H11/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
70-89
70
89
-19
H18/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
67-65
67
65
+2
H20/12
NCAA
Troy
#84
L
80-100
80
100
-20
A31/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
84-79
84
79
+5
A03/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
70-80 OT
70
80
-10
A09/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
82-83
82
83
-1
A10/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
59-54
59
54
+5
H15/01
NCAA
1H
2H
34-34
32-32
28-40
44-37
38-38
48-45
32-41
38-48
25-39
42-26
33-45
47-55
46-40
38-39
28-29
37-36
37-43
45-40
29-22
30-32
153.2Avg total
74.4Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)74.171.2145.3+2.853%
Season at home (11)77.164.2141.3+12.982%
Season away (8)69.980.9150.8-11.012%
Last 10 (10)74.478.8153.2-4.440%
Last 5 (5)75.079.2154.2-4.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)69.880.8150.6-11.020%
vs Similar ◀ (11)75.081.7156.7-6.727%
vs Weaker (14)74.662.9137.5+11.671%
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Southern MissUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Grambling St.
#260
W
68-60
68
60
+8
H09/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
67-71
67
71
-4
A13/12
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
62-54
62
54
+8
H19/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
86-93
86
93
-7
H20/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
62-90
62
90
-28
A30/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
87-73
87
73
+14
A01/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
74-67
74
67
+7
A03/01
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
80-70 OT
80
70
+10
H09/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
70-60
70
60
+10
H10/01
NCAA
Troy
#84
L
65-91
65
91
-26
A15/01
NCAA
1H
2H
29-31
39-29
29-31
38-40
24-17
38-37
32-39
54-54
30-41
32-49
45-38
42-35
33-27
41-40
29-28
36-37
31-28
39-32
26-42
39-49
145.0Avg total
72.1Scored
72.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)75.473.4148.7+2.058%
Season at home (9)78.166.2144.3+11.989%
Season away (10)72.979.8152.7-6.930%
Last 10 (10)72.172.9145.0-0.860%
Last 5 (5)75.272.2147.4+3.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)69.680.9150.4-11.311%
vs Similar ◀ (14)71.574.9146.4-3.436%
vs Weaker (7)80.064.7144.7+15.3100%
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: -4.1-4.11st half: -1.4-1.42nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: -0.4-0.4
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: -4.1-4.11st half: -1.4-1.42nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: -0.4-0.4
Texas StateSouthern Miss
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lehigh
#197
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H29/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A04/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H11/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H18/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
25-39
25
39
-14
H20/12
NCAA
Troy
#84
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A31/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A03/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
28-29
28
29
-1
A09/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A10/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
29-22
29
22
+7
H15/01
NCAA
70.1Avg total
33.0Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.633.167.7+1.543%-
Last 30 at home (18)35.731.567.2+4.256%-
Last 30 away (12)33.135.568.6-2.425%-
Last 10 (10)33.037.170.1-4.120%-
Last 5 (5)34.635.870.4-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)32.836.669.4-3.820%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)31.537.869.4-6.30%-
vs Weaker (14)37.728.165.9+9.686%-
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Southern MissLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Grambling St.
#260
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H09/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
29-31
29
31
-2
A13/12
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
24-17
24
17
+7
H19/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H20/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A30/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
45-38
45
38
+7
A01/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
33-27
33
27
+6
A03/01
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
29-28
29
28
+1
H09/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
31-28
31
28
+3
H10/01
NCAA
Troy
#84
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A15/01
NCAA
63.0Avg total
30.8Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.134.067.0-0.943%-
Last 30 at home (15)32.831.264.0+1.647%-
Last 30 away (15)33.336.770.1-3.440%-
Last 10 (10)30.832.263.0-1.450%-
Last 5 (5)32.832.665.4+0.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)32.937.370.2-4.422%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)31.333.164.4-1.936%-
vs Weaker (7)36.931.368.1+5.686%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Texas State wins
5
Southern Miss wins
Texas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/01/26HLouisiana Lafayette59-54
10/01/26AArkansas State82-83
09/01/26ASouthern Miss70-80 OT
03/01/26ALouisiana Monroe84-79
31/12/25ATroy80-100
20/12/25HSouth Alabama67-65
18/12/25HArkansas State70-89
11/12/25HSouthern Univ.86-83
04/12/25ARice72-77
29/11/25HLehigh74-78 OT
Southern Misslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/01/26ATroy65-91
10/01/26HLouisiana Monroe70-60
09/01/26HTexas State80-70 OT
03/01/26ALouisiana Lafayette74-67
01/01/26ALouisiana Monroe87-73
30/12/25ALSU62-90
20/12/25HArkansas State86-93
19/12/25HLouisiana Lafayette62-54
13/12/25AOle Miss67-71
09/12/25HGrambling St.68-60

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW53%
HomeLWLWW82%
AwayLLWLL12%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19118
Win %53%82%12%
Points / game74.177.169.9
Allowed / game71.264.280.9
Point differential+2.8+12.9-11.0
Avg total145.3141.3150.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+26%45%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)75% (4)33% (3)
Overtime %11%9%12%
Southern Miss
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL58%
HomeWWLWW89%
AwayLLWWL30%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19910
Win %58%89%30%
Points / game75.478.172.9
Allowed / game73.466.279.8
Point differential+2.0+11.9-6.9
Avg total148.7144.3152.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%56%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)-0% (3)
Overtime %11%11%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Troy1812667%86.276.3+9.9
2 Arkansas State1812667%83.578.7+4.8
3 Georgia Southern2013765%83.480.0+3.5
4 Marshall1912763%79.575.6+3.9
5 South Alabama1911858%73.368.6+4.7
6 Southern Miss1911858%75.473.4+2.0
7 Appalachian State2011955%72.867.0+5.8
8 Coastal Carolina2011955%73.472.5+0.8
9 Texas State1910953%74.171.2+2.8
10 James Madison1991047%74.276.7-2.6
11 Georgia State1971237%70.673.9-3.3
12 Old Dominion2061430%74.077.3-3.3
13 Louisiana Lafayette2051525%60.269.0-8.8
14 Louisiana Monroe1931616%72.882.3-9.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Texas State274774
Southern Miss283967
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