PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Toledo vs Ball State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 31 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 73-55
39-27 34-28
Position#156
Record11-10
FormLLLWL
Points / game82.2
Allowed / game78.9
Toledo 🏆
USA
vs
Position#288
Record7-13
FormLLWWW
Points / game67.9
Allowed / game69.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Toledo v Ball State
31 Jan 2026
TOLE73
BALL55
18 Feb 2025
TOLE67
BALL66
13 Jan 2024
TOLE77
BALL72
03 Jan 2023
TOLE83
BALL90
18 Jan 2022
TOLE83
BALL70
11 Mar 2021
TOLE91
BALL89
05 Mar 2021
TOLE89
BALL70
29 Feb 2020
TOLE69
BALL63
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toledo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Ball State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Michigan
#323
W
78-75
78
75
+3
A03/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
75-61
75
61
+14
A07/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
73-87
73
87
-14
H09/01
NCAA
CBC Valladolid
#7
W
87-73
87
73
+14
H11/01
Segunda FEB
Ohio
#241
W
101-85
101
85
+16
H14/01
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
84-87
84
87
-3
A16/01
NCAA
Valle de Egues
#28
L
81-83
81
83
-2
A17/01
Segunda FEB
UMass
#189
L
82-84
82
84
-2
A20/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
73-72
73
72
+1
H24/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
81-91
81
91
-10
A28/01
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
31-41
0-0
47-34
0-0
37-25
0-0
38-36
0-0
36-56
0-0
37-31
23-22
23-13
25-22
16-16
0-0
52-50
0-0
49-35
0-0
41-35
0-0
43-52
19-23
21-17
24-16
17-27
0-0
34-35
0-0
48-49
0-0
39-38
0-0
34-34
0-0
49-41
0-0
32-50
161.3Avg total
81.5Scored
79.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)82.278.9161.0+3.352%
Season at home (10)86.276.7162.9+9.570%
Season away (11)78.580.8159.4-2.336%
Last 10 (10)81.579.8161.3+1.750%
Last 5 (5)80.283.4163.6-3.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)73.685.8159.4-12.220%
vs Similar (14)82.681.4164.0+1.343%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)88.374.2162.5+14.190%
This opponent (Ball State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ball StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Campbell
#222
L
64-69
64
69
-5
A14/12
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
77-86
77
86
-9
H20/12
NCAA
Earlham
#693
W
93-30
93
30
+63
H30/12
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
L
72-85
72
85
-13
A03/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
L
52-74
52
74
-22
H07/01
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
71-79
71
79
-8
A10/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
77-87
77
87
-10
A14/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
76-71
76
71
+5
H17/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
68-67
68
67
+1
A21/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
58-53
58
53
+5
H24/01
NCAA
1H
2H
30-30
34-39
36-40
41-46
48-8
45-22
25-41
47-44
25-39
27-35
25-28
46-51
34-43
43-44
44-31
32-40
33-20
35-47
29-22
29-31
140.9Avg total
70.8Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)67.969.8137.7-1.835%
Season at home (10)73.765.3139.0+8.460%
Season away (10)62.174.2136.3-12.110%
Last 10 (10)70.870.1140.9+0.740%
Last 5 (5)70.071.4141.4-1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)70.681.6152.2-11.00%
vs Similar (13)64.470.8135.2-6.523%
vs Weaker (7)73.970.0143.9+3.986%
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +0.9+0.91st half: +2.7+2.72nd half2nd half: +0.8+0.82nd half: -2.0-2.0
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +0.9+0.91st half: +2.7+2.72nd half2nd half: +0.8+0.82nd half: -2.0-2.0
ToledoBall State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Michigan
#323
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A03/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
37-25
37
25
+12
A07/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
36-56
36
56
-20
H09/01
NCAA
CBC Valladolid
#7
W
46-35
46
35
+11
H11/01
Segunda FEB
Ohio
#241
W
52-50
52
50
+2
H14/01
NCAA
Kent State
#52
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A16/01
NCAA
Valle de Egues
#28
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A17/01
Segunda FEB
UMass
#189
L
34-35
34
35
-1
A20/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H24/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A28/01
NCAA
80.1Avg total
40.5Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.337.778.0+2.660%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.936.379.1+6.679%-
Last 30 away (16)38.138.977.0-0.944%-
Last 10 (10)40.539.680.1+0.960%-
Last 5 (5)40.637.878.4+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)37.045.882.8-8.840%-
vs Similar (14)39.537.176.6+2.457%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)42.235.477.6+6.870%-
This opponent (Ball State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ball StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Campbell
#222
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A14/12
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H20/12
NCAA
Earlham
#693
W
48-8
48
8
+40
H30/12
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A03/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
L
25-39
25
39
-14
H07/01
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
25-28
25
28
-3
A10/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A14/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
44-31
44
31
+13
H17/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
33-20
33
20
+13
A21/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
29-22
29
22
+7
H24/01
NCAA
63.1Avg total
32.9Scored
30.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.731.964.6+0.840%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.731.668.3+5.156%-
Last 30 away (14)28.232.260.4-4.021%-
Last 10 (10)32.930.263.1+2.740%-
Last 5 (5)33.028.861.8+4.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)32.439.471.8-7.012%-
vs Similar (13)30.830.561.2+0.338%-
vs Weaker (7)34.730.064.7+4.757%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Toledo wins
3
Ball State wins
DateGameScore
19/02/25Toledo v Ball State67-66
18/01/25Ball State v Toledo75-93
14/01/24Toledo v Ball State77-72
03/03/23Ball State v Toledo81-87
04/01/23Toledo v Ball State83-90
05/02/22Ball State v Toledo93-83
19/01/22Toledo v Ball State83-70
11/03/21Toledo v Ball State91-89 OT
06/03/21Toledo v Ball State89-70
06/02/21Ball State v Toledo81-67
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/01/26AAkron81-91
24/01/26HBowling Green73-72
20/01/26AUMass82-84
17/01/26AValle de Egues81-83
16/01/26AKent State84-87
14/01/26HOhio101-85
11/01/26HCBC Valladolid87-73
09/01/26HMiami (Ohio)73-87
07/01/26ANorthern Illinois75-61
03/01/26ACentral Michigan78-75
Ball Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/26HNorthern Illinois58-53
21/01/26ACentral Michigan68-67
17/01/26HOhio76-71
14/01/26AAkron77-87
10/01/26AUMass71-79
07/01/26HEastern Michigan52-74
03/01/26ABuffalo72-85
30/12/25HEarlham93-30
20/12/25HMiami (Ohio)77-86
14/12/25ACampbell64-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toledo
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL52%
HomeWWLWW70%
AwayWWLLL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211011
Win %52%70%36%
Points / game82.286.278.5
Allowed / game78.976.780.8
Point differential+3.3+9.5-2.3
Avg total161.0162.9159.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%40%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)67% (3)20% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ball State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW35%
HomeLWLWW60%
AwayLLLLW10%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %35%60%10%
Points / game67.973.762.1
Allowed / game69.865.374.2
Point differential-1.9+8.4-12.1
Avg total137.7139.0136.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)67% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)21210100%94.175.1+19.0
2 Akron2218482%91.574.5+17.0
3 Kent State2215768%87.281.4+5.8
4 Buffalo2114767%80.074.7+5.3
5 Bowling Green2113862%85.971.3+14.5
6 UMass2213959%79.974.7+5.2
7 Toledo21111052%82.278.9+3.3
8 Ohio22111150%76.677.3-0.7
9 Eastern Michigan2191243%71.773.1-1.4
10 Western Michigan2181338%75.479.2-3.8
11 Ball State2071335%67.969.8-1.9
12 Northern Illinois2071335%73.576.0-2.5
13 Central Michigan2161529%72.978.5-5.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Toledo393473
Ball State272855
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.