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Toledo vs Ball State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 19 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 67-66
28-35 39-31
Position#167
Record15-10
FormWWWLL
Points / game78.6
Allowed / game78.2
Toledo 🏆
USA
vs
Position#243
Record13-12
FormWLWWW
Points / game76.9
Allowed / game74.8
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Toledo v Ball State
31 Jan 2026
TOLE73
BALL55
18 Feb 2025
TOLE67
BALL66
13 Jan 2024
TOLE77
BALL72
03 Jan 2023
TOLE83
BALL90
18 Jan 2022
TOLE83
BALL70
11 Mar 2021
TOLE91
BALL89
05 Mar 2021
TOLE89
BALL70
29 Feb 2020
TOLE69
BALL63
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toledo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Ball State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akron
#21
L
78-85
78
85
-7
A15/01
NCAA
Ball State
#243
W
93-75
93
75
+18
A18/01
NCAA
Kent State
#74
L
64-83
64
83
-19
H22/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#257
W
84-71
84
71
+13
A24/01
NCAA
Ohio
#205
W
86-83
86
83
+3
A29/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#352
W
89-85
89
85
+4
H01/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#333
W
87-74
87
74
+13
H05/02
NCAA
James Madison
#110
W
72-69
72
69
+3
H08/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#41
L
80-92
80
92
-12
A12/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#212
L
73-80
73
80
-7
A15/02
NCAA
1H
2H
42-30
36-55
44-40
49-35
30-44
34-39
43-38
41-33
47-39
39-44
50-35
39-50
42-32
45-42
38-41
34-28
30-45
50-47
33-43
40-37
160.3Avg total
80.6Scored
79.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)78.678.2156.8+0.460%
Season at home (12)79.276.2155.3+3.075%
Season away (13)78.280.1158.2-1.946%
Last 10 (10)80.679.7160.3+0.960%
Last 5 (5)80.280.0160.2+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)72.381.3153.6-9.038%
vs Similar ◀ (10)79.674.6154.2+5.070%
vs Weaker (7)89.972.4162.3+17.486%
This opponent (Ball State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ball StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio
#205
L
71-86
71
86
-15
A15/01
NCAA
Toledo
#167
L
75-93
75
93
-18
H18/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#242
W
82-80
82
80
+2
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#352
L
66-76
66
76
-10
A25/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#305
L
71-74
71
74
-3
H29/01
NCAA
Buffalo
#333
W
89-76
89
76
+13
A01/02
NCAA
Akron
#21
L
73-81
73
81
-8
A05/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
77-76
77
76
+1
H08/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#212
W
86-84 OT
86
84
+2
H12/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#352
W
89-83 OT
89
83
+6
H15/02
NCAA
1H
2H
35-45
36-41
40-44
35-49
33-41
49-39
29-40
37-36
36-41
35-33
45-32
44-44
36-38
37-43
35-37
42-39
40-33
35-42
38-20
38-56
158.8Avg total
77.9Scored
80.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)76.974.8151.8+2.152%
Season at home (14)79.673.7153.3+5.957%
Season away (11)73.576.3149.8-2.745%
Last 10 (10)77.980.9158.8-3.050%
Last 5 (5)82.880.0162.8+2.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)72.277.5149.8-5.225%
vs Similar ◀ (9)75.778.8154.4-3.144%
vs Weaker (15)75.671.5147.1+4.153%
This opponent (Toledo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.2+1.21st half: -0.4-0.42nd half2nd half: -0.3-0.32nd half: -3.4-3.4
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.2+1.21st half: -0.4-0.42nd half2nd half: -0.3-0.32nd half: -3.4-3.4
ToledoBall State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akron
#21
W
42-30
42
30
+12
A15/01
NCAA
Ball State
#243
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A18/01
NCAA
Kent State
#74
L
30-44
30
44
-14
H22/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#257
W
43-38
43
38
+5
A24/01
NCAA
Ohio
#205
W
47-39
47
39
+8
A29/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#352
W
50-35
50
35
+15
H01/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#333
W
42-32
42
32
+10
H05/02
NCAA
James Madison
#110
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H08/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#41
L
30-45
30
45
-15
A12/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#212
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A15/02
NCAA
78.6Avg total
39.9Scored
38.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.735.473.2+2.360%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.733.170.9+4.660%-
Last 30 away (15)37.737.775.5+0.060%-
Last 10 (10)39.938.778.6+1.260%-
Last 5 (5)38.639.277.8-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)34.239.273.5-5.031%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)37.933.271.1+4.770%-
vs Weaker (7)44.031.675.6+12.4100%-
This opponent (Ball State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ball StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio
#205
L
35-45
35
45
-10
A15/01
NCAA
Toledo
#167
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H18/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#242
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#352
L
29-40
29
40
-11
A25/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#305
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H29/01
NCAA
Buffalo
#333
W
45-32
45
32
+13
A01/02
NCAA
Akron
#21
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A05/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H08/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#212
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H12/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#352
W
38-20
38
20
+18
H15/02
NCAA
73.8Avg total
36.7Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.634.169.7+1.450%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.432.168.5+4.359%-
Last 30 away (13)34.536.871.2-2.338%-
Last 10 (10)36.737.173.8-0.430%-
Last 5 (5)38.832.070.8+6.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)36.536.573.0+0.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)34.137.371.4-3.233%-
vs Weaker (15)35.431.466.8+4.060%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Toledo wins
3
Ball State wins
DateGameScore
18/01/25Ball State v Toledo75-93
14/01/24Toledo v Ball State77-72
03/03/23Ball State v Toledo81-87
04/01/23Toledo v Ball State83-90
05/02/22Ball State v Toledo93-83
19/01/22Toledo v Ball State83-70
11/03/21Toledo v Ball State91-89 OT
06/03/21Toledo v Ball State89-70
06/02/21Ball State v Toledo81-67
29/02/20Toledo v Ball State69-63
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/25AEastern Michigan73-80
12/02/25AMiami (Ohio)80-92
08/02/25HJames Madison72-69
05/02/25HBuffalo87-74
01/02/25HNorthern Illinois89-85
29/01/25AOhio86-83
24/01/25ABowling Green84-71
22/01/25HKent State64-83
18/01/25ABall State93-75
15/01/25AAkron78-85
Ball Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/25HNorthern Illinois89-83 OT
12/02/25HEastern Michigan86-84 OT
08/02/25HSouthern Miss77-76
05/02/25AAkron73-81
01/02/25ABuffalo89-76
29/01/25HWestern Michigan71-74
25/01/25ANorthern Illinois66-76
22/01/25ACentral Michigan82-80
18/01/25HToledo75-93
15/01/25AOhio71-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toledo
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL60%
HomeWLWWW75%
AwayWWWLL46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251213
Win %60%75%46%
Points / game78.679.278.2
Allowed / game78.276.280.1
Point differential+0.4+3.0-1.9
Avg total156.8155.3158.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%25%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (6)100% (5)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ball State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW52%
HomeLLWWW57%
AwayLWLWL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251411
Win %52%57%45%
Points / game76.979.673.5
Allowed / game74.873.776.3
Point differential+2.1+5.9-2.7
Avg total151.8153.3149.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%36%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)67% (3)75% (4)
Overtime %8%14%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron2520580%84.673.7+10.9
2 Miami (Ohio)2619773%80.873.0+7.8
3 Kent State2517868%71.366.0+5.3
4 Toledo25151060%78.678.2+0.4
5 Ohio25131252%79.775.3+4.4
6 Ball State25131252%76.974.8+2.1
7 Eastern Michigan26131350%73.276.9-3.7
8 Central Michigan25111444%75.171.7+3.4
9 UMass26111542%74.874.3+0.5
10 Bowling Green25101540%74.975.1-0.2
11 Western Michigan2581732%71.677.1-5.5
12 Buffalo2581732%72.080.5-8.4
13 Northern Illinois2552020%71.676.7-5.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Toledo283967
Ball State353166
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