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Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 28 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 20:30
Final 141-127 (OT)
33-29 32-35 31-36 26-22 19-5
Position#11
Record18-13
FormWLLWL
Points / game113.9
Allowed / game112.3
vs
Position#20
Record16-15
FormLLWWW
Points / game114.5
Allowed / game112.4
USANBA· Scotiabank Arena
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Toronto Raptors v Golden State Warriors
18 Dec 2026
TOR v GSW
upcoming
28 Dec 2025
TOR141
GSW127
13 Jan 2025
TOR104
GSW101
01 Mar 2024
TOR105
GSW120
18 Dec 2022
TOR110
GSW126
18 Dec 2021
TOR119
GSW100
02 Apr 2021
TOR130
GSW77
16 Mar 2020
TOR v GSW
upcoming
29 Nov 2018
TOR131
GSW128
13 Jan 2018
TOR125
GSW127
16 Nov 2016
TOR121
GSW127
05 Dec 2015
TOR109
GSW112
27 Feb 2015
TOR89
GSW113
02 Mar 2014
TOR104
GSW98
28 Jan 2013
TOR102
GSW114
04 Mar 2012
TOR83
GSW75
08 Nov 2010
TOR102
GSW109
04 Apr 2010
TOR112
GSW113
31 Oct 2008
TOR112
GSW108
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toronto Raptors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Golden State Warriors winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRaptors
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
121-118
121
118
+3
119avg 105
H03/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
120-123
120
123
-3
122avg 105
H05/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
86-111
86
111
-25
67avg 105
H06/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
113-121
113
121
-8
104avg 105
H07/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
106-96
106
96
+10
106avg 105
A16/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
111-105
111
105
+6
110avg 105
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
96-112
96
112
-16
88avg 105
H21/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
81-96
81
96
-15
69avg 105
A21/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
112-91
112
91
+21
113avg 105
A24/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
L
117-138
117
138
-21
103avg 105
A27/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
37-39
28-20
32-23
24-36
26-31
32-36
40-33
22-23
24-18
18-35
28-25
16-33
26-34
33-43
32-20
22-24
23-22
23-30
28-25
32-19
31-25
26-28
26-23
28-29
20-32
31-17
29-34
16-29
18-24
21-25
26-18
16-29
21-16
30-28
31-23
30-24
32-35
30-38
38-29
17-36
217.4Avg total
106.3Scored
111.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)113.9112.3226.3+1.658%
Season at home (14)113.9112.2226.1+1.657%
Season away (17)114.0112.4226.4+1.659%
Last 10 (10)106.3111.1217.4-4.840%
Last 5 (5)103.4108.4211.8-5.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)101.5117.5219.0-16.00%
vs Similar ◀ (14)113.2111.1224.4+2.164%
vs Weaker (12)116.9111.5228.4+5.467%
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Golden State WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWarriors
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
112-124
112
124
-12
104avg 105
H03/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
98-99
98
99
-1
89avg 105
A05/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
99-94
99
94
+5
91avg 105
A07/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
123-91
123
91
+32
121avg 105
A08/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
120-127
120
127
-7
108avg 105
H13/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
131-136
131
136
-5
128avg 105
A15/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
98-99
98
99
-1
95avg 105
A19/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
119-116
119
116
+3
114avg 105
H21/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
120-97
120
97
+23
120avg 105
H23/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
126-116
126
116
+10
121avg 105
H25/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-32
18-31
44-28
24-33
10-30
24-26
32-24
32-19
12-18
33-18
27-26
27-32
38-25
22-21
27-30
36-15
27-28
36-33
28-27
29-39
31-34
31-27
37-35
32-40
29-26
24-20
18-24
27-29
32-44
32-23
29-20
26-29
26-30
32-27
31-26
31-14
40-28
31-30
29-31
26-27
224.5Avg total
114.6Scored
109.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)114.5112.4226.9+2.252%
Season at home (14)118.3110.1228.4+8.171%
Season away (17)111.5114.2225.7-2.835%
Last 10 (10)114.6109.9224.5+4.750%
Last 5 (5)118.8112.8231.6+6.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)112.7120.3233.0-7.643%
vs Similar ◀ (15)112.0110.2222.2+1.847%
vs Weaker (8)120.4110.0230.4+10.462%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.8-1.8Q1: -2.4-2.4Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: +2.7+2.7Q3Q3: +5.7+5.7Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: -5.9-5.9Q4: +1.3+1.3
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.8-1.8Q1: -2.4-2.4Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: +2.7+2.7Q3Q3: +5.7+5.7Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: -5.9-5.9Q4: +1.3+1.3
Toronto RaptorsGolden State Warriors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H03/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
58-67
58
67
-9
H05/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
42-53
42
53
-11
H06/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
59-77
59
77
-18
H07/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
46-52
46
52
-6
A16/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
57-53
57
53
+4
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
51-49
51
49
+2
H21/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
39-49
39
49
-10
A21/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A24/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
L
62-73
62
73
-11
A27/12
NBA
110.6Avg total
53.0Scored
57.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.156.1112.1+0.060%-
Last 30 at home (14)57.456.3113.7+1.171%-
Last 30 away (16)54.955.9110.8-1.050%-
Last 10 (10)53.057.6110.6-4.640%-
Last 5 (5)52.053.6105.6-1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)53.063.5116.5-10.525%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)55.155.5110.6-0.450%-
vs Weaker (12)58.254.2112.4+3.983%-
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Golden State WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
44-63
44
63
-19
H03/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
34-56
34
56
-22
A05/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A07/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
60-46
60
46
+14
A08/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H13/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
62-61
62
61
+1
A15/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
53-46
53
46
+7
A19/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H21/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
58-57
58
57
+1
H23/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
71-58
71
58
+13
H25/12
NBA
110.5Avg total
55.4Scored
55.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.755.3111.0+0.460%-
Last 30 at home (14)59.155.8114.9+3.471%-
Last 30 away (16)52.754.9107.6-2.250%-
Last 10 (10)55.455.1110.5+0.370%-
Last 5 (5)61.657.8119.4+3.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)50.458.6109.0-8.129%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)55.354.6109.9+0.760%-
vs Weaker (8)61.153.9115.0+7.288%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 106.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.127.7
52.2%
54.8%55.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.012.5
35.7%
35.8%37.5
🏀 Free throws17.013.4
78.8%
78.1%13.4
They take 88.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Golden State Warriorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Golden State Warriors: 114.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.8 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers47.4 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.325.4
53.7%
54.8%50.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.715.8
36.2%
35.8%47.4
🏀 Free throws20.516.4
80.0%
78.1%16.4
They take 91.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Toronto Raptors
LWLLWWLLLW
Golden State Warriors
WWWLLLWWLL
#11
League position
#20
-4.8
Net rating
+4.6
106.8
Offensive rating
112.2
111.6
Defensive rating
107.6
52.7%
Effective FG%
54.0%
55.7%
Opp. effective FG%
52.2%
15.3%
Turnover %
14.7%
24.9%
Off. rebound %
27.4%
0.19
Free-throw rate
0.23
35.7%
3-point %
36.2%
70.9%
Assist %
70.9%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence106.8 · 112.2Defence111.6 · 107.6Shooting52.7% · 54.0%3-point %35.7% · 36.2%Ball care15.3% · 14.7%Off. rebounds24.9% · 27.4%Free throws0.19 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Toronto Raptors   ■ Golden State Warriors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
27/12/25AWashington Wizards117-138
24/12/25AMiami Heat112-91
21/12/25ABrooklyn Nets81-96
21/12/25HBoston Celtics96-112
19/12/25AMilwaukee Bucks111-105
16/12/25AMiami Heat106-96
07/12/25HBoston Celtics113-121
06/12/25HCharlotte Hornets86-111
05/12/25HLos Angeles Lakers120-123
03/12/25HPortland Trail Blazers121-118
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/12/25HDallas Mavericks126-116
23/12/25HOrlando Magic120-97
21/12/25HPhoenix Suns119-116
19/12/25APhoenix Suns98-99
15/12/25APortland Trail Blazers131-136
13/12/25HMinnesota Timberwolves120-127
08/12/25AChicago Bulls123-91
07/12/25ACleveland Cavaliers99-94
05/12/25APhiladelphia 76ers98-99
03/12/25HOklahoma City Thunder112-124

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toronto Raptors
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL58%
HomeWLLLL57%
AwayWWLWL59%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311417
Win %58%57%59%
Points / game113.9113.9114.0
Allowed / game112.3112.2112.4
Point differential+1.6+1.6+1.6
Avg total226.3226.1226.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%36%47%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)75% (4)-
Overtime %3%0%6%
Golden State Warriors
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW52%
HomeLLWWW71%
AwayLWWLL35%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311417
Win %52%71%35%
Points / game114.5118.3111.5
Allowed / game112.4110.1114.2
Point differential+2.2+8.1-2.8
Avg total226.9228.4225.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%50%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won36% (11)33% (3)38% (8)
Overtime %3%7%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder2925486%121.1107.9+13.3
2 Detroit Pistons3124777%119.5112.9+6.6
3 San Antonio Spurs2921872%120.0113.6+6.4
4 Denver Nuggets3122971%125.8117.5+8.3
5 New York Knicks2920969%120.2113.9+6.3
6 Los Angeles Lakers2819968%116.9116.9-0.1
7 Houston Rockets29191066%120.3111.7+8.6
8 Boston Celtics30191163%116.8110.4+6.4
9 Minnesota Timberwolves32201262%118.8114.7+4.1
10 Phoenix Suns30181260%116.0112.9+3.1
11 Toronto Raptors31181358%113.9112.3+1.6
12 Orlando Magic30171357%117.0115.0+2.0
13 Philadelphia 76ers29161355%116.1115.2+0.9
14 Miami Heat31171455%120.5117.4+3.2
15 Golden State Warriors31161552%114.5112.4+2.2
16 Cleveland Cavaliers33171652%119.5117.8+1.8
17 Memphis Grizzlies31151648%115.4115.8-0.5
18 Chicago Bulls31151648%118.8122.0-3.2
19 Atlanta Hawks33151845%118.8120.1-1.3
20 Milwaukee Bucks32131941%112.7116.0-3.3
21 Portland Trail Blazers31121939%116.6120.5-3.8
22 Utah Jazz31121939%120.5127.1-6.6
23 Dallas Mavericks33122136%113.5117.5-4.0
24 Charlotte Hornets31112035%115.6118.4-2.8
25 Brooklyn Nets29101934%109.8113.7-3.9
26 Los Angeles Clippers3092130%111.5115.3-3.8
27 Sacramento Kings3182326%112.0122.0-9.9
28 New Orleans Pelicans3382524%115.2122.6-7.3
29 Washington Wizards2962321%113.5125.8-12.3
30 Indiana Pacers3262619%109.8119.2-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Toronto Raptors3332312619141
Golden State Warriors293536225127
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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