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Townsville W vs Adelaide Lightning W Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 15 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 08:00
Final 103-69
26-22 21-21 31-15 25-11
Position#1
Record4-1
FormWWLWW
Points / game85.4
Allowed / game71.2
Townsville W 🏆
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#7
Record2-2
FormWLLWW
Points / game77.2
Allowed / game80.2
AustraliaNBL WRound 5· Townsville Entertainment Centre
Women2025-26
Meetings · Townsville W v Adelaide Lightning W
15 Nov 2025
TOWN103
ADEL69
23 Nov 2024
TOWN53
ADEL47
20 Jan 2024
TOWN75
ADEL90
29 Nov 2023
TOWN67
ADEL61
20 Jan 2023
TOWN92
ADEL63
11 Nov 2022
TOWN84
ADEL79
28 Jan 2022
TOWN65
ADEL73
11 Dec 2020
TOWN95
ADEL66
03 Jan 2020
TOWN61
ADEL87
18 Oct 2019
TOWN68
ADEL86
07 Dec 2018
TOWN70
ADEL85
07 Dec 2017
TOWN64
ADEL79
05 Nov 2017
TOWN84
ADEL42
16 Oct 2016
TOWN85
ADEL56
24 Oct 2015
TOWN104
ADEL41
31 Oct 2014
TOWN86
ADEL60
02 Feb 2014
TOWN78
ADEL65
04 Jan 2013
TOWN73
ADEL70
21 Oct 2012
TOWN65
ADEL80
28 Jan 2012
TOWN61
ADEL64
23 Jan 2011
TOWN79
ADEL53
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Townsville W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Townsville WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
86-87 OT
86
87
-1
70avg 77
H16/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
92-87
92
87
+5
88avg 77
A22/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
106-76
106
76
+30
116avg 77
H26/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
60-70
60
70
-10
45avg 77
A05/03
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
55-63
55
63
-8
43avg 77
H09/03
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
74-66
74
66
+8
62avg 77
A19/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
105-70
105
70
+35
107avg 77
A25/10
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
83-89
83
89
-6
74avg 77
A31/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
79-70
79
70
+9
73avg 77
A04/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
86-61
86
61
+25
no box
A07/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-15
16-22
16-18
17-20
27-16
16-20
26-30
23-21
26-21
28-19
24-13
28-23
23-16
10-12
8-13
19-29
21-20
13-13
7-13
14-17
23-19
21-15
10-19
20-13
28-21
26-12
21-25
30-12
14-19
24-17
14-21
31-32
26-17
18-26
18-7
17-20
25-15
20-12
17-24
24-10
156.5Avg total
82.6Scored
73.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)85.471.2156.6+14.280%
Season at homeno games
Season away (5)85.471.2156.6+14.280%
Last 10 (10)82.673.9156.5+8.760%
Last 5 (5)85.471.2156.6+14.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (11)78.580.5158.9-2.036%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)83.967.1151.0+16.989%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#5
L
60-84
60
84
-24
40avg 67
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
59-65
59
65
-6
47avg 67
A24/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
87-69
87
69
+18
82avg 67
H01/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
63-90
63
90
-27
52avg 67
H05/02
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
78-84
78
84
-6
71avg 67
A09/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
87-70
87
70
+17
90avg 67
H16/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
72-75
72
75
-3
61avg 67
H19/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
76-110
76
110
-34
66avg 67
A25/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
73-65
73
65
+8
68avg 67
H01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
88-71
88
71
+17
88avg 67
H09/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-30
18-15
19-23
14-16
11-20
20-14
17-18
11-13
28-15
18-24
16-19
25-11
13-29
18-20
13-14
19-27
18-22
27-27
18-21
15-14
27-27
15-19
27-14
18-10
9-26
24-18
18-13
21-18
25-16
13-32
22-32
16-30
22-21
19-19
17-10
15-15
24-14
22-19
28-10
14-28
152.6Avg total
74.3Scored
78.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)77.280.2157.5-3.050%
Season at home (3)77.770.3148.0+7.367%
Season away (1)76.0110.0186.0-34.00%
Last 10 (10)74.378.3152.6-4.040%
Last 5 (5)79.278.2157.4+1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)70.875.5146.4-4.731%
vs Similar (13)77.278.3155.5-1.154%
vs Weaker (4)74.069.5143.5+4.550%
This opponent (Townsville W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.0+6.0Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: +2.4+2.4Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: -1.4-1.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.0+6.0Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: +2.4+2.4Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: -1.4-1.4
Townsville WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Townsville WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H16/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A22/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
54-40
54
40
+14
H26/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
W
33-28
33
28
+5
A05/03
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H09/03
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
44-34
44
34
+10
A19/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
54-33
54
33
+21
A25/10
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A31/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A04/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
45-27
45
27
+18
A07/11
NBL W
77.8Avg total
43.1Scored
34.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.336.780.0+6.680%-
Last 30 at home (13)42.035.477.4+6.669%-
Last 30 away (17)44.437.782.1+6.688%-
Last 10 (10)43.134.777.8+8.4100%-
Last 5 (5)45.034.679.6+10.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (11)40.840.881.6+0.064%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)44.834.379.1+10.589%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#5
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A24/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H01/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H05/02
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
45-49
45
49
-4
A09/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H16/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H19/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A25/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H09/11
NBL W
80.7Avg total
38.0Scored
42.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.939.677.5-1.637%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.440.681.0-0.247%-
Last 30 away (15)35.538.574.0-3.127%-
Last 10 (10)38.042.780.7-4.730%-
Last 5 (5)40.042.282.2-2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)37.940.578.4-2.531%-
vs Similar (13)38.739.277.9-0.546%-
vs Weaker (4)35.537.873.2-2.225%-
This opponent (Townsville W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Townsville Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Townsville W: 81.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.2 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.221.6
46.8%
47.8%43.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.08.3
34.6%
32.8%24.9
🏀 Free throws18.413.3
72.3%
73.3%13.3
They take 70.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 73.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.2 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.8 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.5 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.121.6
50.1%
47.8%43.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.86.6
28.9%
32.8%19.8
🏀 Free throws15.610.5
67.3%
73.3%10.5
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Townsville W
WWLWWLLWWL
Adelaide Lightning W
WWLLWLLWLL
#1
League position
#7
+11.4
Net rating
-4.6
103.0
Offensive rating
93.2
91.6
Defensive rating
97.8
48.5%
Effective FG%
47.8%
43.6%
Opp. effective FG%
46.2%
19.9%
Turnover %
21.8%
35.4%
Off. rebound %
28.0%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.24
34.6%
3-point %
28.9%
62.5%
Assist %
63.5%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence103.0 · 93.2Defence91.6 · 97.8Shooting48.5% · 47.8%3-point %34.6% · 28.9%Ball care19.9% · 21.8%Off. rebounds35.4% · 28.0%Free throws0.26 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Townsville W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Townsville W wins
3
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
05/02/25Adelaide Lightning W v Townsville W63-90
29/11/24Adelaide Lightning W v Townsville W68-69
23/11/24Townsville W v Adelaide Lightning W53-47
20/01/24Townsville W v Adelaide Lightning W75-90
29/11/23Townsville W v Adelaide Lightning W67-61
23/11/23Adelaide Lightning W v Townsville W51-74
20/01/23Townsville W v Adelaide Lightning W92-63
05/01/23Adelaide Lightning W v Townsville W93-68
11/11/22Townsville W v Adelaide Lightning W84-79
05/03/22Adelaide Lightning W v Townsville W78-57
Townsville Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/25AGeelong Venom W86-61
04/11/25APerth Lynx W79-70
31/10/25ASouthside W83-89
25/10/25ACanberra Capitals W105-70
19/10/25ABendigo W74-66
09/03/25HBendigo W55-63
05/03/25ABendigo W60-70
26/02/25HPerth Lynx W106-76
22/02/25APerth Lynx W92-87
16/02/25HPerth Lynx W86-87 OT
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/11/25HSydney W88-71
01/11/25HCanberra Capitals W73-65
25/10/25AGeelong Venom W76-110
19/10/25HPerth Lynx W72-75
16/02/25HGeelong United W87-70
09/02/25ASouthside W78-84
05/02/25HTownsville W63-90
01/02/25HPerth Lynx W87-69
24/01/25ABendigo W59-65
19/01/25ASydney W60-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Townsville W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW80%
Home--
AwayWWLWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games5-5
Win %80%-80%
Points / game85.4-85.4
Allowed / game71.2-71.2
Point differential+14.2-+14.2
Avg total156.6-156.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%-40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWW50%
HomeLWW67%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%67%0%
Points / game77.277.776.0
Allowed / game80.270.3110.0
Point differential-3.0+7.3-34.0
Avg total157.5148.0186.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Townsville W54180%85.471.2+14.2
2 Bendigo W43175%72.268.8+3.5
3 Perth Lynx W64267%73.876.3-2.5
4 Adelaide Lightning W42250%77.280.2-3.0
5 Geelong Venom W73443%76.172.7+3.4
6 Southside W52340%74.276.8-2.6
7 Canberra Capitals W62433%74.375.2-0.8
8 Sydney W72529%71.981.0-9.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Townsville W26213125103
Adelaide Lightning W2221151169
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