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Adelaide Lightning W vs Perth Lynx W Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 01 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 06:30
Final 87-69
28-15 18-24 16-19 25-11
Position#6
Record5-12
FormLLLLL
Points / game71.4
Allowed / game76.1
vs
Position#2
Record14-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game87.3
Allowed / game78.9
AustraliaNBL WRound 14· Adelaide Arena
Women2024-25
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W
21 Dec 2025
ADEL82
PERT109
19 Oct 2025
ADEL72
PERT75
01 Feb 2025
ADEL87
PERT69
09 Nov 2024
ADEL78
PERT92
10 Dec 2023
ADEL95
PERT98
02 Mar 2023
ADEL93
PERT97
16 Feb 2023
ADEL82
PERT108
02 Jan 2022
ADEL88
PERT86
06 Dec 2020
ADEL78
PERT80
30 Jan 2020
ADEL75
PERT74
06 Dec 2019
ADEL79
PERT69
30 Dec 2018
ADEL74
PERT67
02 Dec 2017
ADEL74
PERT89
12 Oct 2017
ADEL87
PERT81
27 Jan 2017
ADEL60
PERT80
12 Nov 2016
ADEL63
PERT75
08 Nov 2015
ADEL52
PERT65
01 Feb 2015
ADEL71
PERT58
04 Jan 2015
ADEL78
PERT61
03 Nov 2013
ADEL93
PERT41
05 Oct 2013
ADEL65
PERT69
08 Dec 2012
ADEL85
PERT48
08 Oct 2011
ADEL97
PERT70
19 Feb 2011
ADEL100
PERT103
17 Oct 2010
ADEL83
PERT74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Perth Lynx W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#8
L
59-69
59
69
-10
54avg 64
A08/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
68-67
68
67
+1
60avg 64
H15/12
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
82-72
82
72
+10
79avg 64
H20/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
86-73
86
73
+13
83avg 64
A22/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
67-95
67
95
-28
53avg 64
H27/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
77-88
77
88
-11
70avg 64
H03/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
76-94
76
94
-18
71avg 64
A05/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
76-91
76
91
-15
67avg 64
A11/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
60-84
60
84
-24
40avg 64
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
59-65
59
65
-6
47avg 64
A24/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-14
7-18
13-16
20-21
17-15
22-13
19-19
10-20
24-19
23-23
21-20
14-10
18-25
13-18
21-19
34-11
13-24
20-28
14-25
20-18
22-16
21-28
23-21
11-23
14-21
21-21
16-28
25-24
14-28
21-15
18-23
23-25
9-30
18-15
19-23
14-16
11-20
20-14
17-18
11-13
150.8Avg total
71.0Scored
79.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)71.476.1147.5-4.629%
Season at home (7)74.076.7150.7-2.743%
Season away (10)69.675.6145.2-6.020%
Last 10 (10)71.079.8150.8-8.830%
Last 5 (5)69.684.4154.0-14.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)69.676.5146.1-6.929%
vs Similar (12)77.278.1155.2-0.950%
vs Weaker (4)70.573.5144.0-3.025%
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#5
L
75-86
75
86
-11
59avg 81
A07/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
87-63
87
63
+24
78avg 81
H12/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
W
71-68
71
68
+3
55avg 81
A19/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
96-71
96
71
+25
95avg 81
H23/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
89-80
89
80
+9
82avg 81
A29/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
W
94-76
94
76
+18
92avg 81
H05/01
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
80-77
80
77
+3
73avg 81
A12/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
86-95
86
95
-9
73avg 81
A15/01
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
86-78
86
78
+8
78avg 81
H18/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
105-83
105
83
+22
93avg 81
A25/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-23
21-23
17-18
17-22
20-10
37-20
20-14
10-19
22-16
12-22
17-14
20-16
23-19
22-17
21-17
30-18
18-23
21-23
27-18
23-16
21-14
21-21
28-16
24-25
23-18
15-19
22-16
20-24
30-23
23-22
17-20
16-30
18-21
23-33
18-12
27-12
28-24
24-23
39-10
14-26
164.6Avg total
86.9Scored
77.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)87.378.9166.2+8.478%
Season at home (9)88.175.7163.8+12.478%
Season away (9)86.682.1168.7+4.478%
Last 10 (10)86.977.7164.6+9.280%
Last 5 (5)90.281.8172.0+8.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)83.884.8168.6-1.060%
vs Similar (10)86.089.2175.2-3.230%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)88.878.7167.5+10.187%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -5.1-5.1Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: -0.4-0.4Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: +7.1+7.1Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: -0.7-0.7
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -5.1-5.1Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: -0.4-0.4Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: +7.1+7.1Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: -0.7-0.7
Adelaide Lightning WPerth Lynx W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#8
L
26-32
26
32
-6
A08/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H15/12
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H20/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
31-43
31
43
-12
A22/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
33-52
33
52
-19
H27/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H03/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A05/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A11/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A24/01
NBL W
75.2Avg total
34.7Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.138.475.4-1.337%-
Last 30 at home (12)41.039.080.0+2.050%-
Last 30 away (18)34.437.972.4-3.528%-
Last 10 (10)34.740.575.2-5.820%-
Last 5 (5)34.241.675.8-7.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)38.139.877.9-1.729%-
vs Similar (12)37.237.274.3+0.050%-
vs Weaker (4)33.237.070.2-3.825%-
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#5
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A07/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
57-30
57
30
+27
H12/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A19/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
45-36
45
36
+9
H23/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A29/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H05/01
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A12/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
W
53-45
53
45
+8
A15/01
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
41-54
41
54
-13
H18/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
52-47
52
47
+5
A25/01
NBL W
85.6Avg total
44.2Scored
41.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.344.289.6+1.147%-
Last 30 at home (13)46.542.889.3+3.862%-
Last 30 away (17)44.445.489.8-0.935%-
Last 10 (10)44.241.485.6+2.860%-
Last 5 (5)45.243.688.8+1.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)44.442.086.4+2.460%-
vs Similar (10)45.048.193.1-3.120%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)45.942.488.3+3.560%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 69.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.2 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.020.2
45.9%
46.9%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.46.4
26.2%
32.2%19.2
🏀 Free throws15.610.2
65.4%
75.1%10.2
They take 68.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Perth Lynx Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Perth Lynx W: 79.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.818.2
48.1%
46.9%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.38.6
28.4%
32.2%25.8
🏀 Free throws21.617.6
81.5%
75.1%17.6
They take 68.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LLLLLLWWWL
Perth Lynx W
WWLWWWWWWL
#6
League position
#2
-11.4
Net rating
+12.4
86.4
Offensive rating
104.2
97.8
Defensive rating
91.8
43.6%
Effective FG%
45.7%
45.4%
Opp. effective FG%
45.9%
20.5%
Turnover %
15.8%
26.0%
Off. rebound %
31.2%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.32
26.2%
3-point %
28.4%
68.8%
Assist %
61.6%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence86.4 · 104.2Defence97.8 · 91.8Shooting43.6% · 45.7%3-point %26.2% · 28.4%Ball care20.5% · 15.8%Off. rebounds26.0% · 31.2%Free throws0.23 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)30% · 80%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Perth Lynx W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/25ABendigo W59-65
19/01/25ASydney W60-84
11/01/25ACanberra Capitals W76-91
05/01/25APerth Lynx W76-94
03/01/25HCanberra Capitals W77-88
27/12/24HBendigo W67-95
22/12/24ASydney W86-73
20/12/24HSouthside W82-72
15/12/24HCanberra Capitals W68-67
08/12/24AGeelong United W59-69
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/25ASydney W105-83
18/01/25HSouthside W86-78
15/01/25ABendigo W86-95
12/01/25AGeelong United W80-77
05/01/25HAdelaide Lightning W94-76
29/12/24ACanberra Capitals W89-80
23/12/24HGeelong United W96-71
19/12/24ABendigo W71-68
12/12/24HCanberra Capitals W87-63
07/12/24ASydney W75-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL29%
HomeLWWLL43%
AwayWLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17710
Win %29%43%20%
Points / game71.474.069.6
Allowed / game76.176.775.6
Point differential-4.6-2.7-6.0
Avg total147.5150.7145.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%29%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %6%0%10%
Perth Lynx W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW78%
HomeLWWWW78%
AwayWWWLW78%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %78%78%78%
Points / game87.388.186.6
Allowed / game78.975.782.1
Point differential+8.4+12.4+4.4
Avg total166.2163.8168.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%56%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)0% (1)100% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W1917289%85.472.2+13.2
2 Perth Lynx W1814478%87.378.9+8.4
3 Townsville W1813572%81.172.6+8.4
4 Sydney W1871139%78.883.5-4.7
5 Canberra Capitals W1861233%78.785.6-6.9
6 Geelong United W1861233%71.782.0-10.3
7 Adelaide Lightning W1751229%71.476.1-4.6
8 Southside W1841422%80.685.2-4.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W2818162587
Perth Lynx W1524191169
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