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Adelaide Lightning W vs Canberra Capitals W Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 01 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 04:00
Final 73-65
22-21 19-19 17-10 15-15
Position#7
Record0-2
FormLLWLL
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game92.5
Adelaide Lightning W 🏆
Australia
vs
Canberra Capitals W
Australia
Position#5
Record1-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game75.0
Allowed / game88.0
AustraliaNBL WRound 3· Adelaide Arena
Women2025-26
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W
20 Jan 2026
ADEL61
CANB67
01 Nov 2025
ADEL73
CANB65
03 Jan 2025
ADEL77
CANB88
15 Dec 2024
ADEL68
CANB67
28 Jan 2024
ADEL84
CANB67
30 Nov 2022
ADEL90
CANB80
17 Mar 2022
ADEL81
CANB50
30 Jan 2022
ADEL67
CANB80
11 Nov 2020
ADEL85
CANB73
27 Dec 2019
ADEL78
CANB68
13 Feb 2019
ADEL74
CANB73
14 Dec 2018
ADEL93
CANB73
02 Dec 2018
ADEL91
CANB83
25 Oct 2017
ADEL80
CANB77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Canberra Capitals W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
76-94
76
94
-18
71avg 65
A05/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
76-91
76
91
-15
67avg 65
A11/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
60-84
60
84
-24
40avg 65
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
59-65
59
65
-6
47avg 65
A24/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
87-69
87
69
+18
82avg 65
H01/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
63-90
63
90
-27
52avg 65
H05/02
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
78-84
78
84
-6
71avg 65
A09/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
87-70
87
70
+17
90avg 65
H16/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
72-75
72
75
-3
61avg 65
H19/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
76-110
76
110
-34
66avg 65
A25/10
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-21
21-21
16-28
25-24
14-28
21-15
18-23
23-25
9-30
18-15
19-23
14-16
11-20
20-14
17-18
11-13
28-15
18-24
16-19
25-11
13-29
18-20
13-14
19-27
18-22
27-27
18-21
15-14
27-27
15-19
27-14
18-10
9-26
24-18
18-13
21-18
25-16
13-32
22-32
16-30
156.6Avg total
73.4Scored
83.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)74.092.5166.5-18.50%
Season at home (1)72.075.0147.0-3.00%
Season away (1)76.0110.0186.0-34.00%
Last 10 (10)73.483.2156.6-9.820%
Last 5 (5)75.285.8161.0-10.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)70.677.0147.6-6.429%
vs Similar ◀ (12)75.980.5156.4-4.642%
vs Weaker (4)74.069.5143.5+4.550%
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Canberra Capitals WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#8
W
89-69
89
69
+20
99avg 68
H05/01
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
W
91-76
91
76
+15
86avg 68
H11/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
71-105
71
105
-34
59avg 68
A18/01
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
94-79
94
79
+15
86avg 68
H25/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
88-92 OT
88
92
-4
73avg 68
H30/01
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
91-77
91
77
+14
85avg 68
A01/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
71-86
71
86
-15
60avg 68
H09/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
W
83-74
83
74
+9
76avg 68
H15/02
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
80-71
80
71
+9
76avg 68
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
70-105
70
105
-35
58avg 68
H25/10
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-15
18-20
23-9
21-25
28-14
15-21
23-18
25-23
27-30
13-23
18-31
13-21
24-20
24-20
21-19
25-20
30-28
15-16
19-19
16-17
28-25
18-16
24-13
21-23
17-16
19-22
14-16
21-32
17-17
22-21
21-21
23-15
24-16
24-22
18-18
14-15
21-28
12-26
25-21
12-30
166.2Avg total
82.8Scored
83.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)75.088.0163.0-13.050%
Season at home (1)70.0105.0175.0-35.00%
Season away (1)80.071.0151.0+9.0100%
Last 10 (10)82.883.4166.2-0.660%
Last 5 (5)79.082.6161.6-3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)74.488.5162.9-14.117%
vs Similar ◀ (9)82.185.2167.3-3.133%
vs Weaker (3)84.368.7153.0+15.7100%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.6-6.6Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: -3.0-3.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.6-6.6Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: -3.0-3.0
Adelaide Lightning WCanberra Capitals W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A05/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A11/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A24/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H01/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H05/02
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
45-49
45
49
-4
A09/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H16/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H19/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A25/10
NBL W
80.2Avg total
36.3Scored
43.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.340.177.4-2.830%-
Last 30 at home (13)39.941.281.2-1.338%-
Last 30 away (17)35.339.274.5-3.924%-
Last 10 (10)36.343.980.2-7.610%-
Last 5 (5)37.847.285.0-9.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)38.141.279.3-3.129%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)37.039.576.5-2.533%-
vs Weaker (4)35.537.873.2-2.225%-
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Canberra Capitals WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#8
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H05/01
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H11/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
40-53
40
53
-13
A18/01
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
48-40
48
40
+8
H25/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
45-44
45
44
+1
H30/01
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
46-41
46
41
+5
A01/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H09/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H15/02
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
33-54
33
54
-21
H25/10
NBL W
83.9Avg total
42.3Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.144.784.8-4.740%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.443.585.9-1.153%-
Last 30 away (15)37.746.083.7-8.327%-
Last 10 (10)42.341.683.9+0.770%-
Last 5 (5)40.441.882.2-1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)39.246.886.1-7.633%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)40.942.983.8-2.044%-
vs Weaker (3)42.737.780.3+5.067%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 72.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.4 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.8 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.521.2
47.6%
47.8%42.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.36.6
27.2%
32.8%19.8
🏀 Free throws15.210.0
65.8%
73.3%10.0
They take 68.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Canberra Capitals Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Canberra Capitals W: 82.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.6 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.523.8
52.3%
47.8%47.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.87.2
30.3%
32.8%21.6
🏀 Free throws17.613.2
75.0%
73.3%13.2
They take 69.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Nov 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LLWLLWLLLL
Canberra Capitals W
LWWLWLWLWW
#7
League position
#5
-12.7
Net rating
+0.5
90.2
Offensive rating
99.6
103.0
Defensive rating
99.1
45.2%
Effective FG%
49.9%
48.6%
Opp. effective FG%
47.1%
20.6%
Turnover %
19.6%
27.7%
Off. rebound %
26.8%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.25
27.2%
3-point %
30.3%
66.9%
Assist %
58.1%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence90.2 · 99.6Defence103.0 · 99.1Shooting45.2% · 49.9%3-point %27.2% · 30.3%Ball care20.6% · 19.6%Off. rebounds27.7% · 26.8%Free throws0.22 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)20% · 60%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Canberra Capitals W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Adelaide Lightning W wins
4
Canberra Capitals W wins
DateGameScore
11/01/25Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W91-76
03/01/25Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W77-88
15/12/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W68-67
28/01/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W84-67
21/12/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W86-73
05/11/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W79-82
18/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W72-78
02/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W97-90 OT
30/11/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W90-80
17/03/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W81-50
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/25AGeelong Venom W76-110
19/10/25HPerth Lynx W72-75
16/02/25HGeelong United W87-70
09/02/25ASouthside W78-84
05/02/25HTownsville W63-90
01/02/25HPerth Lynx W87-69
24/01/25ABendigo W59-65
19/01/25ASydney W60-84
11/01/25ACanberra Capitals W76-91
05/01/25APerth Lynx W76-94
Canberra Capitals Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/25HTownsville W70-105
18/10/25ASouthside W80-71
15/02/25HBendigo W83-74
09/02/25HSydney W71-86
01/02/25AGeelong United W91-77
30/01/25HSydney W88-92 OT
25/01/25HSouthside W94-79
18/01/25ATownsville W71-105
11/01/25HAdelaide Lightning W91-76
05/01/25HGeelong United W89-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
HomeL0%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game74.072.076.0
Allowed / game92.575.0110.0
Point differential-18.5-3.0-34.0
Avg total166.5147.0186.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Canberra Capitals W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeL0%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%0%100%
Points / game75.070.080.0
Allowed / game88.0105.071.0
Point differential-13.0-35.0+9.0
Avg total163.0175.0151.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Perth Lynx W220100%74.069.5+4.5
2 Townsville W32167%87.375.0+12.3
3 Southside W32167%80.379.7+0.7
4 Bendigo W21150%64.064.5-0.5
5 Canberra Capitals W21150%75.088.0-13.0
6 Geelong Venom W31233%80.774.3+6.3
7 Sydney W31233%76.077.0-1.0
8 Adelaide Lightning W2020%74.092.5-18.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W2219171573
Canberra Capitals W2119101565
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