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Adelaide Lightning W vs Sydney W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 09 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 88-71
24-14 22-19 28-10 14-28
Position#7
Record1-2
FormLWLLW
Points / game73.7
Allowed / game83.3
Adelaide Lightning W 🏆
Australia
vs
Sydney W
Australia
Position#8
Record2-3
FormWLLLW
Points / game75.2
Allowed / game76.6
AustraliaNBL WRound 4· Adelaide Arena
Women2025-26
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W
13 Jan 2026
ADEL76
SYDN65
09 Nov 2025
ADEL88
SYDN71
20 Nov 2024
ADEL78
SYDN54
05 Jan 2024
ADEL74
SYDN67
06 Dec 2023
ADEL64
SYDN66
12 Jan 2023
ADEL77
SYDN81
19 Nov 2022
ADEL87
SYDN67
05 Mar 2022
ADEL v SYDN
upcoming
28 Nov 2020
ADEL75
SYDN53
11 Oct 2019
ADEL89
SYDN79
04 Jan 2019
ADEL110
SYDN61
21 Dec 2018
ADEL95
SYDN52
06 Oct 2017
ADEL91
SYDN80
12 Jan 2017
ADEL74
SYDN77
29 Dec 2016
ADEL72
SYDN89
17 Oct 2015
ADEL71
SYDN88
06 Feb 2015
ADEL72
SYDN60
15 Nov 2014
ADEL59
SYDN78
26 Jan 2014
ADEL68
SYDN71
08 Feb 2013
ADEL98
SYDN73
13 Oct 2012
ADEL86
SYDN60
14 Oct 2011
ADEL65
SYDN70
29 Jan 2011
ADEL55
SYDN80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sydney W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
76-91
76
91
-15
67avg 65
A11/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
60-84
60
84
-24
40avg 65
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
59-65
59
65
-6
47avg 65
A24/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
87-69
87
69
+18
82avg 65
H01/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
63-90
63
90
-27
52avg 65
H05/02
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
78-84
78
84
-6
71avg 65
A09/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
87-70
87
70
+17
90avg 65
H16/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
72-75
72
75
-3
61avg 65
H19/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
76-110
76
110
-34
66avg 65
A25/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
73-65
73
65
+8
68avg 65
H01/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-28
21-15
18-23
23-25
9-30
18-15
19-23
14-16
11-20
20-14
17-18
11-13
28-15
18-24
16-19
25-11
13-29
18-20
13-14
19-27
18-22
27-27
18-21
15-14
27-27
15-19
27-14
18-10
9-26
24-18
18-13
21-18
25-16
13-32
22-32
16-30
22-21
19-19
17-10
15-15
153.4Avg total
73.1Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)73.783.3157.0-9.733%
Season at home (2)72.570.0142.5+2.550%
Season away (1)76.0110.0186.0-34.00%
Last 10 (10)73.180.3153.4-7.230%
Last 5 (5)77.280.8158.0-3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)70.677.0147.6-6.429%
vs Similar ◀ (12)76.378.9155.2-2.650%
vs Weaker (4)74.069.5143.5+4.550%
This opponent (Sydney W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sydney WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
86-71
86
71
+15
83avg 67
A09/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
50-83
50
83
-33
34avg 67
H12/02
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
67-83
67
83
-16
54avg 67
H15/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
67-76
67
76
-9
57avg 67
A23/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
74-91
74
91
-17
69avg 67
H27/02
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
85-77
85
77
+8
88avg 67
A18/10
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
76-81
76
81
-5
66avg 67
H24/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
67-73
67
73
-6
56avg 67
A26/10
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
75-88
75
88
-13
53avg 67
A02/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
73-64
73
64
+9
60avg 67
H06/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-17
22-19
16-14
32-21
15-27
11-21
12-23
12-12
23-18
15-22
19-24
10-19
15-27
13-24
21-16
18-9
31-23
13-30
23-20
7-18
26-22
22-8
16-22
21-25
28-22
15-21
16-19
17-19
22-16
20-18
16-14
9-25
18-23
18-17
21-30
18-18
17-14
14-12
21-12
21-26
150.7Avg total
72.0Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)75.276.6151.8-1.440%
Season at home (2)74.572.5147.0+2.050%
Season away (3)75.779.3155.0-3.733%
Last 10 (10)72.078.7150.7-6.730%
Last 5 (5)75.276.6151.8-1.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)73.285.8158.9-12.612%
vs Similar ◀ (11)80.379.1159.4+1.255%
vs Weaker (3)80.373.0153.3+7.367%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -5.8-5.8Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -2.7-2.7
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -5.8-5.8Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -2.7-2.7
Adelaide Lightning WSydney W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A11/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A24/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H01/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H05/02
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
45-49
45
49
-4
A09/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H16/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H19/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A25/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H01/11
NBL W
80.6Avg total
36.9Scored
43.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.740.277.9-2.433%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.041.181.1-1.143%-
Last 30 away (16)35.839.375.1-3.625%-
Last 10 (10)36.943.780.6-6.820%-
Last 5 (5)39.845.485.2-5.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)38.141.279.3-3.129%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)38.139.877.8-1.742%-
vs Weaker (4)35.537.873.2-2.225%-
This opponent (Sydney W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sydney WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A09/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
26-48
26
48
-22
H12/02
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H15/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
28-51
28
51
-23
A23/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
44-53
44
53
-9
H27/02
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
48-30
48
30
+18
A18/10
NBL W
Southside W
#4
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H24/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A26/10
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A02/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H06/11
NBL W
77.5Avg total
37.4Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.742.983.6-2.243%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.742.384.9+0.453%-
Last 30 away (15)38.743.682.3-4.933%-
Last 10 (10)37.440.177.5-2.740%-
Last 5 (5)40.034.674.6+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)39.247.686.8-8.425%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)41.638.279.8+3.564%-
vs Weaker (3)45.335.781.0+9.767%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 72.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.8 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.3 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.521.9
49.2%
47.8%43.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.86.0
26.3%
32.8%18.0
🏀 Free throws15.710.3
65.6%
73.3%10.3
They take 67.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sydney Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney W: 70.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.315.1
39.4%
47.8%30.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.59.9
34.7%
32.8%29.7
🏀 Free throws14.711.0
74.8%
73.3%11.0
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Nov 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
WLLWLLWLLL
Sydney W
WLLLWLLLLW
#7
League position
#8
-9.1
Net rating
-9.1
90.9
Offensive rating
92.2
99.9
Defensive rating
101.3
45.9%
Effective FG%
44.8%
47.5%
Opp. effective FG%
50.5%
21.2%
Turnover %
21.6%
28.1%
Off. rebound %
30.4%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.22
26.3%
3-point %
34.7%
64.2%
Assist %
67.2%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence90.9 · 92.2Defence99.9 · 101.3Shooting45.9% · 44.8%3-point %26.3% · 34.7%Ball care21.2% · 21.6%Off. rebounds28.1% · 30.4%Free throws0.23 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)30% · 30%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Sydney W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Adelaide Lightning W wins
5
Sydney W wins
DateGameScore
19/01/25Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W84-60
22/12/24Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W73-86
20/11/24Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W78-54
17/01/24Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W88-65
05/01/24Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W74-67
06/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W64-66
24/02/23Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W101-91
12/01/23Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W77-81
19/11/22Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W87-67
26/02/22Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W56-73
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/11/25HCanberra Capitals W73-65
25/10/25AGeelong Venom W76-110
19/10/25HPerth Lynx W72-75
16/02/25HGeelong United W87-70
09/02/25ASouthside W78-84
05/02/25HTownsville W63-90
01/02/25HPerth Lynx W87-69
24/01/25ABendigo W59-65
19/01/25ASydney W60-84
11/01/25ACanberra Capitals W76-91
Sydney Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/25HCanberra Capitals W73-64
02/11/25ABendigo W75-88
26/10/25APerth Lynx W67-73
24/10/25HSouthside W76-81
18/10/25AGeelong Venom W85-77
27/02/25HBendigo W74-91
23/02/25ABendigo W67-76
15/02/25HSouthside W67-83
12/02/25HTownsville W50-83
09/02/25ACanberra Capitals W86-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeLW50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game73.772.576.0
Allowed / game83.370.0110.0
Point differential-9.7+2.5-34.0
Avg total157.0142.5186.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Sydney W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW40%
HomeLW50%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %40%50%33%
Points / game75.274.575.7
Allowed / game76.672.579.3
Point differential-1.4+2.0-3.7
Avg total151.8147.0155.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Townsville W54180%85.471.2+14.2
2 Bendigo W43175%72.268.8+3.5
3 Perth Lynx W43175%73.873.5+0.2
4 Southside W32167%80.379.7+0.7
5 Sydney W52340%75.276.6-1.4
6 Adelaide Lightning W31233%73.783.3-9.7
7 Geelong Venom W51420%75.877.2-1.4
8 Canberra Capitals W51420%70.079.0-9.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W2422281488
Sydney W1419102871
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