PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Adelaide Lightning W vs Perth Lynx W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 19 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 07:30
Final 72-75
9-26 24-18 18-13 21-18
Position#7
Record-
FormLWLLW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
vs
Perth Lynx W 🏆
Australia
Position#2
Record-
FormLWWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
AustraliaNBL WRound 1· Adelaide Arena
Women2025-26
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W
21 Dec 2025
ADEL82
PERT109
19 Oct 2025
ADEL72
PERT75
01 Feb 2025
ADEL87
PERT69
09 Nov 2024
ADEL78
PERT92
10 Dec 2023
ADEL95
PERT98
02 Mar 2023
ADEL93
PERT97
16 Feb 2023
ADEL82
PERT108
02 Jan 2022
ADEL88
PERT86
06 Dec 2020
ADEL78
PERT80
30 Jan 2020
ADEL75
PERT74
06 Dec 2019
ADEL79
PERT69
30 Dec 2018
ADEL74
PERT67
02 Dec 2017
ADEL74
PERT89
12 Oct 2017
ADEL87
PERT81
27 Jan 2017
ADEL60
PERT80
12 Nov 2016
ADEL63
PERT75
08 Nov 2015
ADEL52
PERT65
01 Feb 2015
ADEL71
PERT58
04 Jan 2015
ADEL78
PERT61
03 Nov 2013
ADEL93
PERT41
05 Oct 2013
ADEL65
PERT69
08 Dec 2012
ADEL85
PERT48
08 Oct 2011
ADEL97
PERT70
19 Feb 2011
ADEL100
PERT103
17 Oct 2010
ADEL83
PERT74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Perth Lynx W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#1
L
67-95
67
95
-28
53avg 65
H27/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
77-88
77
88
-11
70avg 65
H03/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
76-94
76
94
-18
71avg 65
A05/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
76-91
76
91
-15
67avg 65
A11/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
60-84
60
84
-24
40avg 65
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
59-65
59
65
-6
47avg 65
A24/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
87-69
87
69
+18
82avg 65
H01/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
63-90
63
90
-27
52avg 65
H05/02
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
78-84
78
84
-6
71avg 65
A09/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
87-70
87
70
+17
90avg 65
H16/02
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-24
20-28
14-25
20-18
22-16
21-28
23-21
11-23
14-21
21-21
16-28
25-24
14-28
21-15
18-23
23-25
9-30
18-15
19-23
14-16
11-20
20-14
17-18
11-13
28-15
18-24
16-19
25-11
13-29
18-20
13-14
19-27
18-22
27-27
18-21
15-14
27-27
15-19
27-14
18-10
156.0Avg total
73.0Scored
83.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)73.083.0156.0-10.020%
Last 5 (5)74.875.6150.4-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)69.977.9147.8-7.929%
vs Similar (12)75.876.9152.7-1.250%
vs Weaker (4)74.069.5143.5+4.550%
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
W
94-76
94
76
+18
92avg 78
H05/01
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
80-77
80
77
+3
73avg 78
A12/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
86-95
86
95
-9
73avg 78
A15/01
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
86-78
86
78
+8
78avg 78
H18/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
105-83
105
83
+22
93avg 78
A25/01
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
L
69-87
69
87
-18
53avg 78
A01/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
95-77
95
77
+18
106avg 78
H07/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
W
87-86 OT
87
86
+1
74avg 78
A16/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
87-92
87
92
-5
79avg 78
H22/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
76-106
76
106
-30
53avg 78
A26/02
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-14
21-21
28-16
24-25
23-18
15-19
22-16
20-24
30-23
23-22
17-20
16-30
18-21
23-33
18-12
27-12
28-24
24-23
39-10
14-26
15-28
24-18
19-16
11-25
24-18
28-12
25-20
18-27
15-26
22-16
18-16
20-17
16-27
20-16
30-26
21-23
21-26
19-28
13-24
23-28
172.2Avg total
86.5Scored
85.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)86.585.7172.2+0.860%
Last 5 (5)82.889.6172.4-6.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)83.884.8168.6-1.060%
vs Similar (9)89.690.3179.9-0.844%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)88.879.0167.8+9.888%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.3-6.3Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: -2.5-2.5Q3: +5.3+5.3Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: -4.3-4.3
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.3-6.3Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: -2.5-2.5Q3: +5.3+5.3Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: -4.3-4.3
Adelaide Lightning WPerth Lynx W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#1
L
33-52
33
52
-19
H27/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H03/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A05/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A11/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A24/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H01/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H05/02
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
45-49
45
49
-4
A09/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H16/02
NBL W
81.1Avg total
36.8Scored
44.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.539.576.9-2.033%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.140.480.6-0.343%-
Last 30 away (16)35.138.673.8-3.525%-
Last 10 (10)36.844.381.1-7.510%-
Last 5 (5)39.043.482.4-4.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)38.641.079.6-2.429%-
vs Similar (12)36.838.275.1-1.442%-
vs Weaker (4)35.537.873.2-2.225%-
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H05/01
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A12/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
W
53-45
53
45
+8
A15/01
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
41-54
41
54
-13
H18/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
52-47
52
47
+5
A25/01
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A01/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
52-30
52
30
+22
H07/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A16/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H22/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A26/02
NBL W
86.3Avg total
43.0Scored
43.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.543.689.1+1.950%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.641.588.1+5.164%-
Last 30 away (16)44.445.489.9-1.038%-
Last 10 (10)43.043.386.3-0.350%-
Last 5 (5)40.843.083.8-2.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)44.442.086.4+2.460%-
vs Similar (9)44.347.091.3-2.722%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)46.442.288.6+4.262%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 72.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.8 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.8 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.4 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.721.4
46.8%
47.8%42.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.76.6
27.8%
32.8%19.8
🏀 Free throws14.59.4
64.8%
73.3%9.4
They take 69.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Perth Lynx Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Perth Lynx W: 85.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.919.3
46.1%
47.8%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.710.1
30.9%
32.8%30.3
🏀 Free throws21.316.6
77.9%
73.3%16.6
They take 74.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
WLLWLLLLLL
Perth Lynx W
LLWWLWWLWW
#7
League position
#2
-12.4
Net rating
+0.1
89.6
Offensive rating
102.8
102.1
Defensive rating
102.7
45.1%
Effective FG%
46.2%
47.4%
Opp. effective FG%
50.1%
19.5%
Turnover %
15.9%
25.3%
Off. rebound %
30.5%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.29
27.8%
3-point %
30.9%
66.8%
Assist %
66.3%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence89.6 · 102.8Defence102.1 · 102.7Shooting45.1% · 46.2%3-point %27.8% · 30.9%Ball care19.5% · 15.9%Off. rebounds25.3% · 30.5%Free throws0.21 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)20% · 60%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Perth Lynx W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Adelaide Lightning W wins
9
Perth Lynx W wins
DateGameScore
01/02/25Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W87-69
05/01/25Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W94-76
09/11/24Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W78-92
07/01/24Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W84-68
10/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W95-98 OT
11/11/23Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W92-85
02/03/23Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W93-97
16/02/23Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W82-108
30/12/22Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W82-72
09/03/22Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W84-73
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/02/25HGeelong United W87-70
09/02/25ASouthside W78-84
05/02/25HTownsville W63-90
01/02/25HPerth Lynx W87-69
24/01/25ABendigo W59-65
19/01/25ASydney W60-84
11/01/25ACanberra Capitals W76-91
05/01/25APerth Lynx W76-94
03/01/25HCanberra Capitals W77-88
27/12/24HBendigo W67-95
Perth Lynx Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/25ATownsville W76-106
22/02/25HTownsville W87-92
16/02/25ATownsville W87-86 OT
07/02/25HGeelong United W95-77
01/02/25AAdelaide Lightning W69-87
25/01/25ASydney W105-83
18/01/25HSouthside W86-78
15/01/25ABendigo W86-95
12/01/25AGeelong United W80-77
05/01/25HAdelaide Lightning W94-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Perth Lynx W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Canberra Capitals W110100%80.071.0+9.0
2 Sydney W110100%85.077.0+8.0
3 Townsville W110100%74.066.0+8.0
4 Bendigo W1010%66.074.0-8.0
5 Geelong Venom W1010%77.085.0-8.0
6 Southside W1010%71.080.0-9.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W924182172
Perth Lynx W2618131875
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.