Trento will host Virtus Bologna on 15 November 2026 in the Lega Basket Serie A, with the model favouring Virtus Bologna and predicting a 67% chance of a win for the road side and a 33% chance for Trento; the projected score is 84-90, with a total of 174 points. Trento, 3-4 overall, averages 80.4 points and allows 83.6, while their home record is 1-2 with 79.7 points scored and 88.7 conceded; the last five games saw one win and four losses, including a 86-96 defeat to Tofas at home, an 86-88 loss to Olimpia Milano away and a 79-90 loss to Basket Napoli away. Virtus Bologna, 6-1 overall, averages 96.4 points and allows 86.0, and is undefeated on the road at 3-0 with 93.7 points scored and 83.0 conceded; their last five games also contain one win and four losses, with a 95-81 win over Verona at home, a 75-93 loss to Dubai at home and a 93-100 loss to Trieste at home. In the ten meetings between the clubs, Virtus Bologna has won six to Trento's four, most recently defeating Trento 106-95 on 26 May 2026. The spread is 5.5 in favour of Trento, with a 50% chance of Trento covering, and the over/under line is 171.5 with a 55% probability of the over; the game has a 5% chance of going into overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Trento win
32.2%fair 3.10
Best odds2.99
Implied31.4%
Edge+0.8pp
Virtus Bologna win
67.8%fair 1.48
Best odds1.45
Implied68.6%
Edge-0.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Trento) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 174 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (12%). The market's main line is 174.5.
Over/Under 169.5
Over 169.5
60.8%
@ 1.61+0.3pp
Under 169.5
39.2%
@ 2.50-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
WilliamHill
1.50
Marathon Be
1.49
Under
WilliamHill
2.50
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.32
Marathon Be
2.27
1xBet
1.91
Over/Under 174.5 · main line
Over 174.5
48.9%
@ 1.91-0.7pp
Under 174.5
51.1%
@ 1.93+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Under
Marathon Be
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 179.5
Over 179.5
37.4%
@ 2.40-1.6pp
Under 179.5
62.6%
@ 1.53+1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
WilliamHill
2.38
Marathon Be
2.29
Under
Marathon Be
1.53
WilliamHill
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Trento total 80.5
Over 80.5
64.2%
@ 1.58+0.5pp
Under 80.5
35.8%
@ 2.50-0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.37
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.44
Bet365
2.22
Trento total 84.5 · main line
Over 84.5
49.6%
@ 1.85-0.7pp
Under 84.5
50.4%
@ 1.91+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Trento total 88.5
Over 88.5
35.2%
@ 2.85-1.0pp
Under 88.5
64.8%
@ 1.42+1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.29
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Bet365
1.37
Virtus Bologna total 85.5
Over 85.5
66.5%
@ 1.44+1.9pp
Under 85.5
33.5%
@ 2.62-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Under
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.45
Virtus Bologna total 89.5 · main line
Over 89.5
51.3%
@ 1.85+0.1pp
Under 89.5
48.7%
@ 1.95-0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathon Be
1.78
Under
Marathon Be
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Virtus Bologna total 93.5
Over 93.5
35.9%
@ 2.42-2.9pp
Under 93.5
64.1%
@ 1.52+2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.40
1xBet
2.24
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.43
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Trento's side (positive = Trento win). Pythia's expected margin is -5.3; Trento win by 1+ in 28% of simulations.
Spread Trento +2.5
TRE +2.5
39.0%
@ 2.37-0.9pp
VIR -2.5
61.0%
@ 1.55+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
TRE
Betano
2.37
Bet365
2.30
Marathon Be
2.28
1xBet
2.24
VIR
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
Marathon Be
1.54
1xBet
1.46
Spread Trento +5.5 · main line
TRE +5.5
49.8%
@ 1.90-0.5pp
VIR -5.5
50.2%
@ 1.90+0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
TRE
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
VIR
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Spread Trento +8.5
TRE +8.5
60.7%
@ 1.55-0.9pp
VIR -8.5
39.3%
@ 2.44+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
TRE
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
Marathon Be
1.55
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.46
VIR
Pinnacle
2.44
Betano
2.37
Bet365
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Marathon Be
2.26
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
TrentoVirtus Bologna
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Trento) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
TRE win
38.4%
@ 2.30-2.6pp
VIR win
61.6%
@ 1.60+2.6pp
2nd half Spread Trento +2.5 · main line
TRE +2.5
49.1%
@ 1.86-1.2pp
VIR -2.5
50.9%
@ 1.93+1.2pp
2nd half Over/Under 86.5 · main line
Over
50.1%
@ 1.87+0.1pp
Under
49.9%
@ 1.93-0.1pp
Trento 2nd half total 42 · main line
Over
49.3%
@ 1.89+0.5pp
Under
50.7%
@ 1.85-0.5pp
Virtus Bologna 2nd half total 43.5 · main line
Over
56.4%
@ 1.85+3.6pp
Under
43.6%
@ 1.98-3.6pp
2nd half Over/Under 85.25
Over
53.6%
@ 1.72+1.0pp
Under
46.4%
@ 1.91-1.0pp
2nd half Over/Under 87.75
Over
46.4%
@ 1.87-1.8pp
Under
53.6%
@ 1.74+1.8pp
2nd half Spread Trento +1.5
TRE +1.5
44.9%
@ 1.95-3.1pp
VIR -1.5
55.1%
@ 1.80+3.1pp
2nd half Spread Trento +3.5
TRE +3.5
53.1%
@ 1.69+0.9pp
VIR -3.5
46.9%
@ 1.85-0.9pp
2nd half Over/Under 84
Over
59.2%
@ 1.81+7.7pp
Under
40.8%
@ 1.93-7.7pp
2nd half Over/Under 89.5
Over
39.0%
@ 2.04-3.8pp
Under
61.0%
@ 1.53+3.8pp
2nd half Spread Trento +4.5
TRE +4.5
57.5%
@ 1.59+2.0pp
VIR -4.5
42.5%
@ 1.98-2.0pp
2nd half Over/Under 82.5
Over
64.3%
@ 1.56+8.3pp
Under
35.7%
@ 1.99-8.3pp
2nd half Spread Trento +5.5
TRE +5.5
61.5%
@ 1.51+2.9pp
VIR -5.5
38.6%
@ 2.13-2.9pp
2nd half Spread Trento -1.5
TRE -1.5
32.9%
@ 2.38-4.3pp
VIR +1.5
67.1%
@ 1.41+4.3pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
TRE
36.9%
@ 2.38-2.2pp
Draw
4.0%
@ 19.00-1.1pp
VIR
59.1%
@ 1.66+3.4pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Trentotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Trento: 85.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
40.8
19.9
48.8%
54.3%
39.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.4
9.3
35.2%
34.3%
27.9
🏀Free throws
24.2
17.4
71.9%
74.6%
17.4
Their opponents take 67.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Virtus Bolognatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Virtus Bologna: 89.5 points a game allowed
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
41.6
20.4
49.0%
54.3%
40.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
29.1
11.4
39.2%
34.3%
34.2
🏀Free throws
19.7
14.5
73.6%
74.6%
14.5
Their opponents take 70.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 64.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Trentotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Trento: 83.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.2 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
35.7
19.0
53.2%
54.3%
38.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
28.3
9.7
34.4%
34.3%
29.2
🏀Free throws
22.1
16.2
73.4%
74.6%
16.2
Their opponents take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Virtus Bolognatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Virtus Bologna: 82.8 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.7 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.5 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.0
19.9
53.6%
54.3%
39.7
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.8
9.8
35.3%
34.3%
29.5
🏀Free throws
18.1
13.5
74.8%
74.6%
13.5
Their opponents take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Trento
LLLLWLLWLW
Virtus Bologna
LWLLLLWLWW
#11
League position
#1
-5.3
Net rating
+3.7
87.9
Offensive rating
102.2
93.1
Defensive rating
98.4
48.9%
Effective FG%
54.8%
50.4%
Opp. effective FG%
53.0%
17.4%
Turnover %
14.0%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.37
33.2%
3-point %
36.3%
66.8%
Assist %
57.7%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%
Profile
■ Trento■ Virtus Bologna
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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