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UTSA Roadrunners vs Texas State Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 16 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 75-75
Projected total 150.2
Scheduled
Position#167
Record2-1
FormLLLWW
Points / game76.7
Allowed / game74.0
UTSA Roadrunners
USA
Vs
50%
50%
■ UTSA 50%■ TEXA 50%
Pythia win probability
Texas State
USA
Position#27
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game89.8
Allowed / game62.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · UTSA Roadrunners v Texas State
15 Nov 2026
UTSA v TEXA
upcoming
17 Nov 2022
UTSA61
TEXA56
Sections
Game preview & prediction

UTSA Roadrunners host Texas State on 15 November 2026 in a match that feels almost evenly matched, with no clear favourite emerging from the numbers. UTSA enters with a 2-1 record, averaging 76.7 points and allowing 74.0, and a perfect 1-0 home record, while Texas State is undefeated 4-0, scoring 89.8 and conceding 62.8, and also holds a 1-0 road record. In the last five games UTSA won two and lost three, including a 70-68 home win over VMI and a 74-95 loss away to San Jose State, whereas Texas State won four of five, highlighted by a 135-66 home rout of Howard Payne. Their head-to-head history is even, each side having won two of the four meetings, with Texas State's most recent victory a 80-69 win in November 2025. Pythia assigns a 50% chance to each side, projecting a 75-75 score and a total of 150.2 points; the home team's 5-point line is expected to be covered 67% of the time, while the over on the 150.5 line has a 48% probability. The game carries a 5% chance of overtime, and the last encounter saw Texas State triumph over UTSA.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UTSA Roadrunners win
50.4%fair 1.98
Best odds2.75
Implied35.0%
Edge+15.4pp
Texas State win
49.6%fair 2.02
Best odds1.47
Implied65.0%
Edge-15.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 15:19 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UTSA RoadrunnersUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East Carolina
#310
L
72-88
72
88
-16
A12/02
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
88-79
88
79
+9
A15/02
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#164
L
52-60
52
60
-8
H19/02
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
74-100
74
100
-26
A22/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
L
81-82
81
82
-1
H26/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
L
67-84
67
84
-17
H02/03
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
71-80
71
80
-9
A08/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#278
L
74-95
74
95
-21
A02/11
NCAA
VMI
#177
W
70-68
70
68
+2
H07/11
NCAA
Seattle
#285
W
86-59
86
59
+27
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-46
41-42
38-44
50-35
28-26
24-34
37-53
37-47
43-34
38-48
29-41
38-43
32-45
39-35
27-45
47-50
31-35
39-33
41-22
45-37
153.0Avg total
73.5Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)76.774.0150.7+2.767%
Season at home (1)70.068.0138.0+2.0100%
Season away (2)80.077.0157.0+3.050%
Last 10 (10)73.579.5153.0-6.030%
Last 5 (5)73.677.2150.8-3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)67.682.7150.3-15.115%
vs Similar (1)74.095.0169.0-21.00%
vs Weaker (2)94.564.5159.0+30.0100%
This opponent (Texas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#84
W
74-62
74
62
+12
H12/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
95-84
95
84
+11
H14/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
90-82 OT
90
82
+8
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
54-67
54
67
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
60-57
60
57
+3
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
77-81
77
81
-4
H06/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#216
W
67-55
67
55
+12
H03/11
NCAA
Howard Payne
#502
W
135-66
135
66
+69
H06/11
NCAA
UTRGV
#211
W
72-65
72
65
+7
A11/11
NCAA
Southern Miss
#227
W
85-65
85
65
+20
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-29
38-33
45-43
50-41
40-33
35-42
18-34
36-33
34-33
26-24
33-37
44-44
35-26
32-29
64-30
71-36
30-28
42-37
44-37
41-28
149.3Avg total
80.9Scored
68.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)89.862.8152.5+27.0100%
Season at home (3)95.762.0157.7+33.7100%
Season away (1)72.065.0137.0+7.0100%
Last 10 (10)80.968.4149.3+12.580%
Last 5 (5)87.266.4153.6+20.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (18)72.475.7148.2-3.344%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)80.663.1143.7+17.592%
This opponent (UTSA Roadrunners) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 145.5
Over 145.5
60.4%
@ 1.50-1.1pp
Under 145.5
39.6%
@ 2.40+1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 150.5 · main line
Over 150.5
48.4%
@ 1.90-0.9pp
Under 150.5
51.6%
@ 1.88+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
BetVictor
1.78
Over/Under 155.5
Over 155.5
36.7%
@ 2.45-0.8pp
Under 155.5
63.3%
@ 1.47+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

UTSA Roadrunners total 68.5
Over 68.5
73.9%
@ 1.35+7.1pp
Under 68.5
26.1%
@ 2.72-7.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
2.72
UTSA Roadrunners total 72.5 · main line
Over 72.5
59.9%
@ 1.84+9.6pp
Under 72.5
40.1%
@ 1.95-9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
UTSA Roadrunners total 76.5
Over 76.5
44.5%
@ 2.42+7.2pp
Under 76.5
55.5%
@ 1.44-7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.44
Texas State total 73.5
Over 73.5
55.7%
@ 1.40-8.9pp
Under 73.5
44.3%
@ 2.55+8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
Texas State total 77.5 · main line
Over 77.5
40.3%
@ 1.87-9.7pp
Under 77.5
59.7%
@ 1.85+9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Texas State total 81.5
Over 81.5
26.4%
@ 2.57-8.9pp
Under 81.5
73.6%
@ 1.40+8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.40

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UTSA Roadrunners +2
UTSA +2
55.7%
@ 2.30+15.1pp
TEXA -2
44.3%
@ 1.57-15.1pp
Best 5 market prices
UTSA
Bet365
2.30
TEXA
Bet365
1.57
Spread UTSA Roadrunners +5 · main line
UTSA +5
66.8%
@ 1.90+16.8pp
TEXA -5
33.2%
@ 1.86-16.8pp
Best 5 market prices
UTSA
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
TEXA
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Spread UTSA Roadrunners +8
UTSA +8
76.5%
@ 1.57+17.0pp
TEXA -8
23.5%
@ 2.30-17.0pp
Best 5 market prices
UTSA
Bet365
1.57
TEXA
Bet365
2.30

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -5.4-5.41st half: +4.9+4.92nd half2nd half: -0.6-0.62nd half: +6.8+6.8
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -5.4-5.41st half: +4.9+4.92nd half2nd half: -0.6-0.62nd half: +6.8+6.8
UTSA RoadrunnersTexas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UTSA RoadrunnersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East Carolina
#310
L
31-46
31
46
-15
A12/02
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
L
38-44
38
44
-6
A15/02
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#164
W
28-26
28
26
+2
H19/02
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
37-53
37
53
-16
A22/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H26/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
L
29-41
29
41
-12
H02/03
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A08/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#278
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A02/11
NCAA
VMI
#177
L
31-35
31
35
-4
H07/11
NCAA
Seattle
#285
W
41-22
41
22
+19
A12/11
NCAA
72.8Avg total
33.7Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)32.139.972.0-7.823%47%
Last 30 at home (13)32.436.769.1-4.331%38%
Last 30 away (17)31.942.474.3-10.518%53%
Last 10 (10)33.739.172.8-5.430%60%
Last 5 (5)32.037.669.6-5.620%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)31.240.771.9-9.519%44%
vs Similar (1)27.045.072.0-18.00%100%
vs Weaker (2)47.027.574.5+19.5100%50%
This opponent (Texas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#84
W
36-29
36
29
+7
H12/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H14/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
18-34
18
34
-16
A21/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H06/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#216
W
35-26
35
26
+9
H03/11
NCAA
Howard Payne
#502
W
64-30
64
30
+34
H06/11
NCAA
UTRGV
#211
W
30-28
30
28
+2
A11/11
NCAA
Southern Miss
#227
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H14/11
NCAA
70.9Avg total
37.9Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)35.033.768.7+1.350%40%
Last 30 at home (18)37.332.169.4+5.367%39%
Last 30 away (12)31.536.267.8-4.825%42%
Last 10 (10)37.933.070.9+4.980%40%
Last 5 (5)41.231.672.8+9.680%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (18)32.335.667.9-3.322%33%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)39.030.969.9+8.192%50%
This opponent (UTSA Roadrunners) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
UTSA win
no forecast
@ 2.45
TEXA win
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners +2.5 · main line
UTSA +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
TEXA -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Over/Under 71.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.95
UTSA Roadrunners 1st half total 34.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.89
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Texas State 1st half total 37 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners +1.5
UTSA +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
TEXA -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners +3.5
UTSA +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
TEXA -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Over/Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.57
Under
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.07
Under
no forecast
@ 1.67
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners +4.5
UTSA +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
TEXA -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.45
Under
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners +5.5
UTSA +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
TEXA -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners -1.5
UTSA -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
TEXA +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners +6.5
UTSA +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.39
TEXA -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.75
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
UTSA
no forecast
@ 2.57
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
TEXA
no forecast
@ 1.62

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UTSA win + total 150.5
🔒 Pro
TEXA win + total 150.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UTSA leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
UTSA Roadrunners +670.3%1.74
Marathon Bet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Bet365
1.74		--+17.1pp
UTSA Roadrunners +876.5%1.57
Bet365
1.57		----+17.0pp
Texas State under 81.573.6%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+8.9pp
Texas State under 80.570.4%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+8.9pp
UTSA Roadrunners over 67.577.0%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+8.0pp
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■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 17 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
UTSA Roadrunners wins
2
Texas State wins
DateGameScore
13/11/25Texas State v UTSA Roadrunners80-69
18/11/23Texas State v UTSA Roadrunners72-62
18/11/22UTSA Roadrunners v Texas State61-56
07/12/19Texas State v UTSA Roadrunners71-77
UTSA Roadrunnerslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26ASeattle86-59
07/11/26HVMI70-68
02/11/26ASan Jose State74-95
08/03/26ARice71-80
02/03/26HWichita State67-84
26/02/26HEast Carolina81-82
22/02/26ATulsa74-100
19/02/26HFlorida Atlantic52-60
15/02/26ACharlotte88-79
12/02/26AEast Carolina72-88
Texas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HSouthern Miss85-65
11/11/26AUTRGV72-65
06/11/26HHoward Payne135-66
03/11/26HTexas A&M-CC67-55
06/03/26HSouthern Miss77-81
28/02/26HAppalachian State60-57
21/02/26ALouisiana Lafayette54-67
20/02/26ASouth Alabama90-82 OT
14/02/26HLouisiana Monroe95-84
12/02/26HTroy74-62

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UTSA Roadrunners
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWW67%
HomeW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game76.770.080.0
Allowed / game74.068.077.0
Point differential+2.7+2.0+3.0
Avg total150.7138.0157.0
Over 150.533%0%50%
Win by 10+33%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Texas State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game89.895.772.0
Allowed / game62.862.065.0
Point differential+27.0+33.7+7.0
Avg total152.5157.7137.0
Over 150.525%33%0%
Win by 10+75%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

American Conference conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tulsa330100%90.765.3+25.3
2 North Texas43175%84.064.5+19.5
3 Wichita State43175%88.570.0+18.5
4 East Carolina43175%75.565.8+9.8
5 Florida Atlantic43175%79.577.5+2.0
6 UTSA Roadrunners32167%76.774.0+2.7
7 Memphis32167%83.389.7-6.3
8 South Florida42250%82.874.8+8.0
9 Rice42250%81.274.0+7.2
10 Tulane42250%81.278.2+3.0
11 UAB42250%77.074.2+2.8
12 Charlotte42250%69.267.8+1.5
13 Temple31233%67.375.3-8.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas State440100%89.862.8+27.0
2 Old Dominion550100%77.058.4+18.6
3 Appalachian State42250%69.060.2+8.8
4 Southern Miss42250%72.070.8+1.2
5 Arkansas State42250%80.279.5+0.8
6 Coastal Carolina42250%72.573.5-1.0
7 South Alabama52340%74.676.0-1.4
8 Louisiana Lafayette31233%59.060.3-1.3
9 James Madison31233%76.078.7-2.7
10 Georgia State41325%85.877.2+8.5
11 Marshall41325%78.276.0+2.2
12 Georgia Southern41325%77.882.8-5.0
13 Troy41325%66.078.0-12.0
14 Louisiana Monroe61517%75.087.7-12.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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