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UTSA Roadrunners vs Texas State Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 16 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 75-75
Projected total 150.2
Scheduled
Position#167
Record2-1
FormLLLWW
Points / game76.7
Allowed / game74.0
UTSA Roadrunners
USA
Vs
50%
50%
■ UTSA 50%■ TEXA 50%
Pythia win probability
Texas State
USA
Position#27
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game89.8
Allowed / game62.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · UTSA Roadrunners v Texas State
15 Nov 2026
UTSA v TEXA
upcoming
17 Nov 2022
UTSA61
TEXA56
Sections
Game preview & prediction

UTSA Roadrunners host Texas State on 15 November 2026 in a match that feels almost evenly matched, with no clear favourite emerging from the numbers. UTSA enters with a 2-1 record, averaging 76.7 points and allowing 74.0, and a perfect 1-0 home record, while Texas State is undefeated 4-0, scoring 89.8 and conceding 62.8, and also holds a 1-0 road record. In the last five games UTSA won two and lost three, including a 70-68 home win over VMI and a 74-95 loss away to San Jose State, whereas Texas State won four of five, highlighted by a 135-66 home rout of Howard Payne. Their head-to-head history is even, each side having won two of the four meetings, with Texas State's most recent victory a 80-69 win in November 2025. Pythia assigns a 50% chance to each side, projecting a 75-75 score and a total of 150.2 points; the home team's 5-point line is expected to be covered 67% of the time, while the over on the 150.5 line has a 48% probability. The game carries a 5% chance of overtime, and the last encounter saw Texas State triumph over UTSA.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UTSA Roadrunners win
50.4%fair 1.98
Best odds2.60
Implied38.1%
Edge+12.3pp
Texas State win
49.6%fair 2.02
Best odds1.56
Implied61.9%
Edge-12.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 15:19 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UTSA RoadrunnersUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East Carolina
#310
L
72-88
72
88
-16
A12/02
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
88-79
88
79
+9
A15/02
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#164
L
52-60
52
60
-8
H19/02
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
74-100
74
100
-26
A22/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
L
81-82
81
82
-1
H26/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
L
67-84
67
84
-17
H02/03
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
71-80
71
80
-9
A08/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#278
L
74-95
74
95
-21
A02/11
NCAA
VMI
#177
W
70-68
70
68
+2
H07/11
NCAA
Seattle
#285
W
86-59
86
59
+27
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-46
41-42
38-44
50-35
28-26
24-34
37-53
37-47
43-34
38-48
29-41
38-43
32-45
39-35
27-45
47-50
31-35
39-33
41-22
45-37
153.0Avg total
73.5Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)76.774.0150.7+2.767%
Season at home (1)70.068.0138.0+2.0100%
Season away (2)80.077.0157.0+3.050%
Last 10 (10)73.579.5153.0-6.030%
Last 5 (5)73.677.2150.8-3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)67.682.7150.3-15.115%
vs Similar (1)74.095.0169.0-21.00%
vs Weaker (2)94.564.5159.0+30.0100%
This opponent (Texas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#84
W
74-62
74
62
+12
H12/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
95-84
95
84
+11
H14/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
90-82 OT
90
82
+8
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
54-67
54
67
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
60-57
60
57
+3
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
77-81
77
81
-4
H06/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#216
W
67-55
67
55
+12
H03/11
NCAA
Howard Payne
#502
W
135-66
135
66
+69
H06/11
NCAA
UTRGV
#211
W
72-65
72
65
+7
A11/11
NCAA
Southern Miss
#227
W
85-65
85
65
+20
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-29
38-33
45-43
50-41
40-33
35-42
18-34
36-33
34-33
26-24
33-37
44-44
35-26
32-29
64-30
71-36
30-28
42-37
44-37
41-28
149.3Avg total
80.9Scored
68.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)89.862.8152.5+27.0100%
Season at home (3)95.762.0157.7+33.7100%
Season away (1)72.065.0137.0+7.0100%
Last 10 (10)80.968.4149.3+12.580%
Last 5 (5)87.266.4153.6+20.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (18)72.475.7148.2-3.344%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)80.663.1143.7+17.592%
This opponent (UTSA Roadrunners) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 144.5
Over 144.5
62.8%
@ 1.50-0.1pp
Under 144.5
37.2%
@ 2.60+0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 149.5 · main line
Over 149.5
50.9%
@ 1.91+1.1pp
Under 149.5
49.1%
@ 1.92-1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.89
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Over/Under 154.5
Over 154.5
39.0%
@ 2.55+1.9pp
Under 154.5
61.0%
@ 1.47-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

UTSA Roadrunners total 69
Over 69
73.0%
Under 69
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UTSA Roadrunners total 73 · main line
Over 73
58.3%
@ 1.86+8.6pp
Under 73
41.7%
@ 1.85-8.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
UTSA Roadrunners total 77
Over 77
42.3%
Under 77
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Texas State total 73
Over 73
57.9%
Under 73
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Texas State total 77 · main line
Over 77
41.9%
@ 1.85-8.1pp
Under 77
58.1%
@ 1.85+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Texas State total 81
Over 81
27.3%
Under 81
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UTSA Roadrunners +1.5
UTSA +1.5
53.3%
@ 2.50+14.1pp
TEXA -1.5
46.7%
@ 1.55-14.1pp
Best 5 market prices
UTSA
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.27
TEXA
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.51
Spread UTSA Roadrunners +4.5 · main line
UTSA +4.5
64.5%
@ 1.90+13.5pp
TEXA -4.5
35.5%
@ 1.96-13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
UTSA
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.87
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
TEXA
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Be
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Spread UTSA Roadrunners +7.5
UTSA +7.5
74.3%
@ 1.57+14.8pp
TEXA -7.5
25.7%
@ 2.35-14.8pp
Best 5 market prices
UTSA
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
TEXA
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.22

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -5.4-5.41st half: +4.9+4.92nd half2nd half: -0.6-0.62nd half: +6.8+6.8
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -5.4-5.41st half: +4.9+4.92nd half2nd half: -0.6-0.62nd half: +6.8+6.8
UTSA RoadrunnersTexas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UTSA RoadrunnersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East Carolina
#310
L
31-46
31
46
-15
A12/02
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
L
38-44
38
44
-6
A15/02
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#164
W
28-26
28
26
+2
H19/02
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
37-53
37
53
-16
A22/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H26/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
L
29-41
29
41
-12
H02/03
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A08/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#278
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A02/11
NCAA
VMI
#177
L
31-35
31
35
-4
H07/11
NCAA
Seattle
#285
W
41-22
41
22
+19
A12/11
NCAA
72.8Avg total
33.7Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)32.139.972.0-7.823%47%
Last 30 at home (13)32.436.769.1-4.331%38%
Last 30 away (17)31.942.474.3-10.518%53%
Last 10 (10)33.739.172.8-5.430%60%
Last 5 (5)32.037.669.6-5.620%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)31.240.771.9-9.519%44%
vs Similar (1)27.045.072.0-18.00%100%
vs Weaker (2)47.027.574.5+19.5100%50%
This opponent (Texas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#84
W
36-29
36
29
+7
H12/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H14/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
18-34
18
34
-16
A21/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H06/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#216
W
35-26
35
26
+9
H03/11
NCAA
Howard Payne
#502
W
64-30
64
30
+34
H06/11
NCAA
UTRGV
#211
W
30-28
30
28
+2
A11/11
NCAA
Southern Miss
#227
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H14/11
NCAA
70.9Avg total
37.9Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)35.033.768.7+1.350%40%
Last 30 at home (18)37.332.169.4+5.367%39%
Last 30 away (12)31.536.267.8-4.825%42%
Last 10 (10)37.933.070.9+4.980%40%
Last 5 (5)41.231.672.8+9.680%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (18)32.335.667.9-3.322%33%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)39.030.969.9+8.192%50%
This opponent (UTSA Roadrunners) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
UTSA win
no forecast
@ 2.37
TEXA win
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners +2.5 · main line
UTSA +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
TEXA -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 71.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
UTSA Roadrunners 1st half total 34.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Texas State 1st half total 37 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners +1.5
UTSA +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.02
TEXA -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners +3.5
UTSA +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
TEXA -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners +4.5
UTSA +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
TEXA -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.55
1st half Over/Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.57
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners +5.5
UTSA +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
TEXA -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners -1.5
UTSA -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.57
TEXA +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread UTSA Roadrunners +6.5
UTSA +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
TEXA -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
UTSA
no forecast
@ 2.47
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
TEXA
no forecast
@ 1.65

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UTSA win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
TEXA win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UTSA leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
UTSA Roadrunners +7.574.3%1.56
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54		---+14.8pp
UTSA Roadrunners +8.577.1%1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47		---+14.7pp
UTSA Roadrunners over 68.573.9%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+10.1pp
UTSA Roadrunners over 69.570.7%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+10.1pp
Texas State under 81.573.6%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+7.5pp
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■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 31 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
UTSA Roadrunners wins
2
Texas State wins
DateGameScore
13/11/25Texas State v UTSA Roadrunners80-69
18/11/23Texas State v UTSA Roadrunners72-62
18/11/22UTSA Roadrunners v Texas State61-56
07/12/19Texas State v UTSA Roadrunners71-77
UTSA Roadrunnerslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26ASeattle86-59
07/11/26HVMI70-68
02/11/26ASan Jose State74-95
08/03/26ARice71-80
02/03/26HWichita State67-84
26/02/26HEast Carolina81-82
22/02/26ATulsa74-100
19/02/26HFlorida Atlantic52-60
15/02/26ACharlotte88-79
12/02/26AEast Carolina72-88
Texas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HSouthern Miss85-65
11/11/26AUTRGV72-65
06/11/26HHoward Payne135-66
03/11/26HTexas A&M-CC67-55
06/03/26HSouthern Miss77-81
28/02/26HAppalachian State60-57
21/02/26ALouisiana Lafayette54-67
20/02/26ASouth Alabama90-82 OT
14/02/26HLouisiana Monroe95-84
12/02/26HTroy74-62

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UTSA Roadrunners
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWW67%
HomeW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game76.770.080.0
Allowed / game74.068.077.0
Point differential+2.7+2.0+3.0
Avg total150.7138.0157.0
Over 149.533%0%50%
Win by 10+33%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Texas State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game89.895.772.0
Allowed / game62.862.065.0
Point differential+27.0+33.7+7.0
Avg total152.5157.7137.0
Over 149.550%67%0%
Win by 10+75%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

American Conference conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tulsa330100%90.765.3+25.3
2 North Texas43175%84.064.5+19.5
3 Wichita State43175%88.570.0+18.5
4 East Carolina43175%75.565.8+9.8
5 Florida Atlantic43175%79.577.5+2.0
6 UTSA Roadrunners32167%76.774.0+2.7
7 Memphis32167%83.389.7-6.3
8 South Florida42250%82.874.8+8.0
9 Rice42250%81.274.0+7.2
10 Tulane42250%81.278.2+3.0
11 UAB42250%77.074.2+2.8
12 Charlotte42250%69.267.8+1.5
13 Temple31233%67.375.3-8.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas State440100%89.862.8+27.0
2 Old Dominion550100%77.058.4+18.6
3 Appalachian State42250%69.060.2+8.8
4 Southern Miss42250%72.070.8+1.2
5 Arkansas State42250%80.279.5+0.8
6 Coastal Carolina42250%72.573.5-1.0
7 South Alabama52340%74.676.0-1.4
8 Louisiana Lafayette31233%59.060.3-1.3
9 James Madison31233%76.078.7-2.7
10 Georgia State41325%85.877.2+8.5
11 Marshall41325%78.276.0+2.2
12 Georgia Southern41325%77.882.8-5.0
13 Troy41325%66.078.0-12.0
14 Louisiana Monroe61517%75.087.7-12.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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