PythiaBasketballBETA
Basketligaen· Sondersohallen
Vaerlose will host Copenhagen on 19 November 2026 in the Basketligaen, with the Pythia model designating Copenhagen as the favourite at 84% versus 16% for Vaerlose, a reflection of Copenhagen's 5-5 record, 83.0 points scored and 82.3 allowed per game, and a sixth-place league position compared with Vaerlose's 2-9 record, 77.8 points scored and 91.2 allowed per game and an eleventh-place finish; Copenhagen's road form is stronger, winning 3 of 5 away games, while Vaerlose has yet to win at home in five attempts, scoring 73.8 points and conceding 92.2. The last five games for Vaerlose include a 76-86 loss to Bears Academy, a 59-86 defeat to Svendborg, and a 62-95 loss to Team FOG Naestved, whereas Copenhagen's recent outings feature a 74-89 loss to Holbaek-Stenhus, a 90-96 loss to Randers, and a 93-67 win over BMS Herlev. Historically, Copenhagen has edged Vaerlose 6-4 in their ten meetings, most recently winning 88-74 on 22 September 2026. Pythia projects a 76-88 score, 164.2 total points, a 3% chance of overtime, and a 16% probability that Vaerlose will cover the home line. The game will end with Copenhagen's 88-point performance.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (11) | 77.8 | 91.2 | 169.0 | -13.4 | 18% |
| Season at home (5) | 73.8 | 92.2 | 166.0 | -18.4 | 0% |
| Season away (6) | 81.2 | 90.3 | 171.5 | -9.2 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.8 | 92.5 | 169.3 | -15.7 | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 73.6 | 86.8 | 160.4 | -13.2 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (13) | 72.5 | 94.8 | 167.4 | -22.3 | 8% |
| vs Similar (14) | 86.1 | 86.3 | 172.4 | -0.2 | 64% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 87.0 | 96.0 | 183.0 | -9.0 | 33% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (10) | 83.0 | 82.3 | 165.3 | +0.7 | 50% |
| Season at home (5) | 88.4 | 89.8 | 178.2 | -1.4 | 40% |
| Season away (5) | 77.6 | 74.8 | 152.4 | +2.8 | 60% |
| Last 10 (10) | 83.0 | 82.3 | 165.3 | +0.7 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 90.4 | 90.2 | 180.6 | +0.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 82.2 | 92.2 | 174.3 | -10.0 | 11% |
| vs Similar | no games | ||||
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 88.3 | 76.5 | 164.8 | +11.7 | 82% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.6 | 46.0 | 84.6 | -7.4 | 23% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 37.0 | 45.9 | 82.9 | -8.9 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 40.2 | 46.1 | 86.3 | -5.9 | 27% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.9 | 44.9 | 82.8 | -7.0 | 10% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.4 | 45.6 | 81.0 | -10.2 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (13) | 35.3 | 47.3 | 82.6 | -12.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 40.6 | 44.1 | 84.8 | -3.5 | 43% | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 43.3 | 49.0 | 92.3 | -5.7 | 33% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.6 | 43.0 | 83.6 | -2.4 | 37% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 43.7 | 44.6 | 88.3 | -0.9 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 37.5 | 41.4 | 78.9 | -3.9 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.1 | 41.4 | 80.5 | -2.3 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.6 | 45.4 | 87.0 | -3.8 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 38.4 | 45.5 | 83.9 | -7.2 | 16% | - |
| vs Similar | no games | |||||
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 44.5 | 38.6 | 83.1 | +5.8 | 73% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 39.6 | 21.3 | 55.2% | 42.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 28.7 | 8.5 | 31.2% | 25.5 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 21.7 | 13.7 | 68.0% | 13.7 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 40.2 | 20.8 | 55.2% | 41.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 31.4 | 8.6 | 31.2% | 25.8 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 18.9 | 12.8 | 68.0% | 12.8 |
Vaerlose
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22/09/26 | Copenhagen v Vaerlose | 88-74 |
| 09/01/26 | Vaerlose v Copenhagen | 76-75 |
| 12/12/25 | Copenhagen v Vaerlose | 91-73 |
| 01/02/25 | Copenhagen v Vaerlose | 86-61 |
| 10/12/24 | Vaerlose v Copenhagen | 79-74 |
| 17/12/23 | Copenhagen v Vaerlose | 85-84 |
| 23/09/23 | Vaerlose v Copenhagen | 76-70 |
| 28/04/23 | Copenhagen v Vaerlose | 87-69 |
| 04/04/23 | Copenhagen v Vaerlose | 75-79 |
| 07/03/23 | Vaerlose v Copenhagen | 79-91 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Bears Academy | 76-86 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Svendborg | 59-86 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Team FOG Naestved | 62-95 |
| 30/10/26 | A | BMS Herlev | 107-99 OT |
| 24/10/26 | H | Holbaek-Stenhus | 64-68 |
| 18/10/26 | H | Bakken Bears | 82-123 |
| 08/10/26 | A | Vejen | 80-92 |
| 02/10/26 | A | Horsens | 79-99 |
| 27/09/26 | H | Randers | 85-89 OT |
| 22/09/26 | A | Copenhagen | 74-88 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | A | Holbaek-Stenhus | 74-89 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Randers | 90-96 |
| 04/11/26 | A | BMS Herlev | 93-67 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Svendborg | 98-103 OT |
| 24/10/26 | H | Vejen | 97-96 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Bears Academy | 78-66 |
| 10/10/26 | H | Horsens | 69-80 |
| 30/09/26 | A | Team FOG Naestved | 66-90 |
| 26/09/26 | A | Gladsaxe | 77-62 |
| 22/09/26 | H | Vaerlose | 88-74 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLLL | 18% |
| Home | LLLLL | 0% |
| Away | LLLWL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 11 | 5 | 6 |
| Win % | 18% | 0% | 33% |
| Points / game | 77.8 | 73.8 | 81.2 |
| Allowed / game | 91.2 | 92.2 | 90.3 |
| Point differential | -13.4 | -18.4 | -9.2 |
| Avg total | 169.0 | 166.0 | 171.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 9% | 0% | 17% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (2) | 0% (2) | - |
| Overtime % | 18% | 20% | 17% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWLL | 50% |
| Home | WLWLL | 40% |
| Away | WLWWL | 60% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Win % | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Points / game | 83.0 | 88.4 | 77.6 |
| Allowed / game | 82.3 | 89.8 | 74.8 |
| Point differential | +0.7 | -1.4 | +2.8 |
| Avg total | 165.3 | 178.2 | 152.4 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 50% (2) | - |
| Overtime % | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Team FOG Naestved | 11 | 10 | 1 | 91% | 99.0 | 72.6 | +26.4 |
| 2 |  Bakken Bears | 9 | 8 | 1 | 89% | 104.7 | 74.9 | +29.8 |
| 3 |  Horsens | 10 | 8 | 2 | 80% | 89.2 | 77.6 | +11.6 |
| 4 |  Svendborg | 10 | 8 | 2 | 80% | 90.6 | 79.7 | +10.9 |
| 5 |  Randers | 10 | 7 | 3 | 70% | 95.6 | 86.0 | +9.6 |
| 6 | Copenhagen | 10 | 5 | 5 | 50% | 83.0 | 82.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 |  Holbaek-Stenhus | 11 | 5 | 6 | 45% | 78.2 | 86.2 | -8.0 |
| 8 | Gladsaxe | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30% | 79.4 | 88.9 | -9.5 |
| 9 |  Vejen | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30% | 78.9 | 96.8 | -17.9 |
| 10 |  Bears Academy | 11 | 2 | 9 | 18% | 79.5 | 91.1 | -11.6 |
| 11 | Vaerlose | 11 | 2 | 9 | 18% | 77.8 | 91.2 | -13.4 |
| 12 | BMS Herlev | 11 | 1 | 10 | 9% | 74.4 | 97.0 | -22.6 |
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