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Valparaiso vs Toledo Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 28 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Scheduled
Position#165
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game77.3
Allowed / game73.0
vs
Position#262
Record2-3
FormWLLLW
Points / game73.0
Allowed / game77.2
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Valparaiso v Toledo
28 Nov 2026
VALP v TOLE
upcoming
09 Nov 2021
VALP61
TOLE69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Toledo win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
76-75
76
75
+1
H15/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
79-72
79
72
+7
H19/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A21/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
74-71
74
71
+3
H26/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
79-80
79
80
-1
A28/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
63-62
63
62
+1
H06/03
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
84-90 OT
84
90
-6
A07/03
NCAA
Western Illinois
#303
W
80-58
80
58
+22
H03/11
NCAA
Purdue
#126
W
83-80 OT
83
80
+3
A06/11
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#64
L
69-81
69
81
-12
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
49-43
27-32
35-35
44-37
31-29
40-38
36-37
38-34
42-34
37-46
28-37
35-25
31-31
33-33
38-19
42-39
20-32
38-26
32-49
37-32
149.4Avg total
75.8Scored
73.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)77.373.0150.3+4.367%
Season at home (1)80.058.0138.0+22.0100%
Season away (2)76.080.5156.5-4.550%
Last 10 (10)75.873.6149.4+2.270%
Last 5 (5)75.874.2150.0+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)68.570.5138.9-2.045%
vs Similar (15)74.574.9149.4-0.553%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)82.864.0146.8+18.875%
This opponent (Toledo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Algeciras
#13
W
100-79
100
79
+21
H18/10
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
L
81-90
81
90
-9
A25/10
Segunda FEB
Jaen Paraiso
#21
W
93-81
93
81
+12
H01/11
Segunda FEB
Arkansas State
#228
L
70-71
70
71
-1
A03/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#28
L
61-91
61
91
-30
A06/11
NCAA
Marshall
#301
W
81-76
81
76
+5
A07/11
NCAA
Spanish Basketball Academy
#20
L
77-85
77
85
-8
A08/11
Segunda FEB
Wright State
#41
L
68-76
68
76
-8
H11/11
NCAA
CBC Valladolid
#6
L
80-88
80
88
-8
H14/11
Segunda FEB
Detroit
#453
W
85-72
85
72
+13
A14/11
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-15
19-25
25-22
30-17
22-18
21-28
13-17
25-27
23-22
30-20
15-17
25-22
0-0
35-36
0-0
35-35
0-0
25-48
0-0
36-43
0-0
27-38
0-0
54-38
15-14
23-27
18-19
21-25
0-0
31-36
0-0
37-40
21-26
26-17
19-21
14-24
0-0
42-40
0-0
43-32
160.5Avg total
79.6Scored
80.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)73.077.2150.2-4.240%
Season at home (1)68.076.0144.0-8.00%
Season away (4)74.277.5151.8-3.250%
Last 10 (10)79.680.9160.5-1.340%
Last 5 (5)78.279.4157.6-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)72.179.3151.4-7.220%
vs Similar (12)81.876.1157.8+5.767%
vs Weaker (8)78.571.4149.9+7.175%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -0.4-0.41st half: -2.4-2.42nd half2nd half: +2.9+2.92nd half: +1.1+1.1
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -0.4-0.41st half: -2.4-2.42nd half2nd half: +2.9+2.92nd half: +1.1+1.1
ValparaisoToledo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
49-43
49
43
+6
H15/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
D
35-35
35
35
+0
H19/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A21/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H26/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A28/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
28-37
28
37
-9
H06/03
NCAA
Bradley
#91
D
31-31
31
31
+0
A07/03
NCAA
Western Illinois
#303
W
38-19
38
19
+19
H03/11
NCAA
Purdue
#126
L
20-32
20
32
-12
A06/11
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#64
L
32-49
32
49
-17
A12/11
NCAA
68.8Avg total
34.2Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.832.666.4+1.243%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.529.766.3+6.867%-
Last 30 away (15)31.135.566.6-4.320%-
Last 10 (10)34.234.668.8-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)29.833.663.4-3.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)31.332.163.4-0.836%-
vs Similar (15)34.134.568.6-0.533%-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)40.026.866.8+13.2100%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Algeciras
#13
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H18/10
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A25/10
Segunda FEB
Jaen Paraiso
#21
W
53-42
53
42
+11
H01/11
Segunda FEB
Arkansas State
#228
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A03/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#28
L
25-48
25
48
-23
A06/11
NCAA
Marshall
#301
L
27-38
27
38
-11
A07/11
NCAA
Spanish Basketball Academy
#20
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A08/11
Segunda FEB
Wright State
#41
L
31-36
31
36
-5
H11/11
NCAA
CBC Valladolid
#6
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H14/11
Segunda FEB
Detroit
#453
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A14/11
NCAA
79.6Avg total
38.6Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.136.474.6+1.753%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.135.976.1+4.273%-
Last 30 away (15)36.136.973.1-0.833%-
Last 10 (10)38.641.079.6-2.440%-
Last 5 (5)37.039.676.6-2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)34.838.072.8-3.220%-
vs Similar (12)40.036.776.7+3.375%-
vs Weaker (8)39.534.173.6+5.462%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Valparaiso wins
3
Toledo wins
DateGameScore
08/11/22Toledo v Valparaiso85-70
10/11/21Valparaiso v Toledo61-69
19/12/20Toledo v Valparaiso71-57
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26ASouth Dakota St.69-81
06/11/26APurdue83-80 OT
03/11/26HWestern Illinois80-58
07/03/26ABradley84-90 OT
06/03/26HIndiana State63-62
28/02/26AEvansville79-80
26/02/26HDrake74-71
21/02/26AIllinois (Chi.)71-67
19/02/26HBradley79-72
15/02/26HIndiana State76-75
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ADetroit85-72
14/11/26HCBC Valladolid80-88
11/11/26HWright State68-76
08/11/26ASpanish Basketball Academy77-85
07/11/26AMarshall81-76
06/11/26AMichigan State61-91
03/11/26AArkansas State70-71
01/11/26HJaen Paraiso93-81
25/10/26AMoron81-90
18/10/26HAlgeciras100-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game77.380.076.0
Allowed / game73.058.080.5
Point differential+4.3+22.0-4.5
Avg total150.3138.0156.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %33%0%50%
Toledo
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW40%
HomeL0%
AwayLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games514
Win %40%0%50%
Points / game73.068.074.2
Allowed / game77.276.077.5
Point differential-4.2-8.0-3.2
Avg total150.2144.0151.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State440100%95.067.5+27.5
2 Drake330100%85.762.7+23.0
3 Illinois (Chi.)43175%79.564.8+14.8
4 Belmont43175%73.562.2+11.2
5 Southern Illinois32167%85.070.0+15.0
6 Valparaiso32167%77.373.0+4.3
7 Indiana State42250%80.265.8+14.5
8 Evansville42250%76.076.2-0.2
9 Bradley52340%59.856.4+3.4
10 Northern Iowa52340%85.286.0-0.8
11 Illinois State41325%81.275.8+5.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron330100%84.062.7+21.3
2 Central Michigan440100%83.865.8+18.0
3 Bowling Green330100%86.376.0+10.3
4 Miami (Ohio)330100%84.076.0+8.0
5 Western Michigan43175%79.060.8+18.2
6 Eastern Michigan32167%77.363.3+14.0
7 UMass32167%66.064.3+1.7
8 Ohio32167%76.075.7+0.3
9 Northern Illinois53260%79.473.2+6.2
10 Toledo52340%73.077.2-4.2
11 Kent State31233%83.375.3+8.0
12 Buffalo31233%77.779.0-1.3
13 Ball State41325%68.872.5-3.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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