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Villanova vs Michigan Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 76-77
Projected total 152.7
Scheduled
Position#150
Record2-1
FormLLLWW
Points / game82.3
Allowed / game66.3
Vs
47%
53%
■ VILL 47%■ MICH 53%
Pythia win probability
Position#167
Record2-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game74.3
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Villanova v Michigan
21 Nov 2026
VILL v MICH
upcoming
24 Mar 2022
VILL63
MICH55
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Villanova host Michigan in the NCAA. Pythia makes Michigan the favourite at 53% and projects 76-77, about 153 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Villanova are 2-1 this season (82.3 scored, 66.3 allowed a game), form LLLWW; Michigan are 2-1 this season (81.7 scored, 74.3 allowed a game), form WWWLW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Villanova win
46.6%fair 2.15
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Michigan win
53.4%fair 1.87
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VillanovaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Uconn
#11
L
63-73
63
73
-10
H21/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
82-73
82
73
+9
H26/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
57-89
57
89
-32
A01/03
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
76-57
76
57
+19
A05/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
91-78
91
78
+13
H07/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
64-78
64
78
-14
H13/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
76-86
76
86
-10
H20/03
NCAA
Notre Dame
#41
L
72-74
72
74
-2
H01/11
NCAA
Holy Cross
#410
W
95-66
95
66
+29
H07/11
NCAA
La Salle
#301
W
80-59
80
59
+21
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-34
31-39
42-28
40-45
23-48
34-41
26-24
50-33
44-32
47-46
31-35
33-43
39-37
37-49
35-31
37-43
44-28
51-38
36-31
44-28
148.9Avg total
75.6Scored
73.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)82.366.3148.7+16.067%
Season at home (3)82.366.3148.7+16.067%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.673.3148.9+2.350%
Last 5 (5)77.472.6150.0+4.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)67.879.4147.2-11.60%
vs Similar (6)70.368.8139.2+1.567%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)80.669.9150.5+10.789%
This opponent (Michigan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MichiganUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Purdue
#31
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
101-80
101
80
+21
H19/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
95-72
95
72
+23
H21/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
W
90-77
90
77
+13
H27/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
95-62
95
62
+33
H29/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
91-73
91
73
+18
A05/04
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
69-63
69
63
+6
H07/04
NCAA
Oakland
#400
W
84-68
84
68
+16
H02/11
NCAA
Uconn
#28
L
77-85
77
85
-8
H07/11
NCAA
Marquette
#134
W
84-70
84
70
+14
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-38
34-42
50-46
51-34
48-39
47-33
47-49
43-28
48-26
47-36
48-32
43-41
33-29
36-34
47-36
37-32
30-43
47-42
35-27
49-43
158.8Avg total
85.8Scored
73.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)81.774.3156.0+7.367%
Season at home (3)81.774.3156.0+7.367%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)85.873.0158.8+12.880%
Last 5 (5)81.071.8152.8+9.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)80.577.5158.0+3.050%
vs Similar (4)83.270.8154.0+12.575%
vs Weaker (24)82.870.9153.7+11.992%
This opponent (Villanova) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
65.5%
Under 146
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
53.5%
Under 151
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 156
Over 156
41.2%
Under 156
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Villanova total 80.5
Over 80.5
32.5%
Under 80.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villanova total 84.5
Over 84.5
20.2%
Under 84.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villanova total 88.5
Over 88.5
11.2%
Under 88.5
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Michigan total 62
Over 62
93.1%
Under 62
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Michigan total 66
Over 66
86.2%
Under 66
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Michigan total 70
Over 70
75.4%
Under 70
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Villanova -3
VILL -3
37.5%
MICH +3
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
VILL
No market prices yet.
MICH
No market prices yet.
Spread Villanova 0
VILL 0
46.6%
MICH 0
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
VILL
No market prices yet.
MICH
No market prices yet.
Spread Villanova +3
VILL +3
55.7%
MICH -3
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
VILL
No market prices yet.
MICH
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +2.4+2.41st half: +5.9+5.92nd half2nd half: -0.1-0.12nd half: +6.9+6.9
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +2.4+2.41st half: +5.9+5.92nd half2nd half: -0.1-0.12nd half: +6.9+6.9
VillanovaMichigan
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VillanovaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Uconn
#11
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H21/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
42-28
42
28
+14
H26/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
23-48
23
48
-25
A01/03
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
26-24
26
24
+2
A05/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H07/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
31-35
31
35
-4
H13/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H20/03
NCAA
Notre Dame
#41
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H01/11
NCAA
Holy Cross
#410
W
44-28
44
28
+16
H07/11
NCAA
La Salle
#301
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H11/11
NCAA
68.0Avg total
35.2Scored
32.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.732.267.9+3.573%-
Last 30 at home (19)36.630.266.8+6.579%-
Last 30 away (11)34.135.769.8-1.664%-
Last 10 (10)35.232.868.0+2.470%-
Last 5 (5)37.032.469.4+4.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)32.036.468.4-4.460%-
vs Similar (6)32.231.063.2+1.267%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)37.831.569.3+6.379%-
This opponent (Michigan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MichiganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Purdue
#31
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
50-46
50
46
+4
H19/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H21/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H27/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
48-26
48
26
+22
H29/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
48-32
48
32
+16
A05/04
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H07/04
NCAA
Oakland
#400
W
47-36
47
36
+11
H02/11
NCAA
Uconn
#28
L
30-43
30
43
-13
H07/11
NCAA
Marquette
#134
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H12/11
NCAA
78.9Avg total
42.4Scored
36.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.334.674.9+5.770%-
Last 30 at home (19)40.635.476.1+5.274%-
Last 30 away (11)39.733.373.0+6.564%-
Last 10 (10)42.436.578.9+5.970%-
Last 5 (5)38.633.472.0+5.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)32.535.067.5-2.550%-
vs Similar (4)41.834.276.0+7.575%-
vs Weaker (24)40.734.775.4+6.071%-
This opponent (Villanova) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Villanova wins
1
Michigan wins
DateGameScore
09/12/25Michigan v Villanova89-61
24/03/22Villanova v Michigan63-55
Villanovalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HLa Salle80-59
07/11/26HHoly Cross95-66
01/11/26HNotre Dame72-74
20/03/26HUtah State76-86
13/03/26HGeorgetown64-78
07/03/26HXavier91-78
05/03/26ADePaul76-57
01/03/26ASt. John's (N.Y.)57-89
26/02/26HButler82-73
21/02/26HUconn63-73
Michiganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMarquette84-70
07/11/26HUconn77-85
02/11/26HOakland84-68
07/04/26HUconn69-63
05/04/26AArizona91-73
29/03/26HTennessee95-62
27/03/26HAlabama90-77
21/03/26HSt. Louis Billikens95-72
19/03/26HHoward101-80
15/03/26HPurdue72-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Villanova
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWW67%
HomeLWW67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game82.382.3-
Allowed / game66.366.3-
Point differential+16.0+16.0-
Avg total148.7148.7-
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%67%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Michigan
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWLW67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game81.781.7-
Allowed / game74.374.3-
Point differential+7.3+7.3-
Avg total156.0156.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%67%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Xavier440100%88.555.8+32.8
2 St. John's (N.Y.)330100%90.762.3+28.3
3 Uconn440100%85.258.0+27.2
4 DePaul440100%77.058.0+19.0
5 Georgetown440100%83.572.0+11.5
6 Seton Hall43175%69.261.5+7.8
7 Marquette32167%80.353.0+27.3
8 Villanova32167%82.366.3+16.0
9 Providence32167%73.059.3+13.7
10 Creighton32167%80.368.3+12.0
11 Butler42250%85.075.2+9.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.080.0+1.0
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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