Zalgiris Kaunas will host Panathinaikos on 19 November 2026 in the EuroLeague, a match that feels almost evenly matched as the two sides have similar season performances and the odds are tight. Zalgiris, 7-4 overall, averages 85.6 points while conceding 82.4, sits 8th in the standings and has won all five of its recent games, including a 94-85 victory over Juventus and an 83-67 win over Besiktas. Their home record is 2-2, with 88.2 points scored and 85.8 allowed. Panathinaikos, 8-3 overall, leads the league with 86.4 points for and 78.5 against, and is 1st in the table; they have won two and lost three of their last five, with a 115-112 win over Real Madrid and an 83-74 win over AEK Athens. Their road record is 2-1, 85.0 points for and 83.3 against. Historically, Panathinaikos has edged Zalgiris 6-4 in ten meetings, most recently 92-88 on 12 March 2026. Pythia rates Zalgiris as the favourite with a 55% chance of winning versus 45% for Panathinaikos, projecting a 84-82 score and 165.9 total points; the 1.5-point line gives a 58% chance for the home side to cover, while the 168.5 over line has a 43% probability, and there is a 5% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Zalgiris can sustain its recent winning streak against a top-ranked opponent.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zalgiris Kaunas win
54.8%fair 1.82
Best odds2.10
Implied46.1%
Edge+8.7pp
Panathinaikos win
45.2%fair 2.21
Best odds1.79
Implied53.9%
Edge-8.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:33 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 166 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 168.5.
Over/Under 163.5
Over 163.5
54.8%
@ 1.48-6.5pp
Under 163.5
45.2%
@ 2.35+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.35
Over/Under 168.5 · main line
Over 168.5
42.7%
@ 1.96-6.6pp
Under 168.5
57.3%
@ 1.90+6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.82
Over/Under 173.5
Over 173.5
31.4%
@ 2.44-5.9pp
Under 173.5
68.6%
@ 1.45+5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.44
Under
1xBet
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Zalgiris Kaunas total 79.5
Over 79.5
65.2%
Under 79.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalgiris Kaunas total 83.5 · main line
Over 83.5
50.2%
@ 1.83+0.7pp
Under 83.5
49.8%
@ 1.79-0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.79
Zalgiris Kaunas total 87.5
Over 87.5
35.1%
Under 87.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos total 80.5
Over 80.5
56.4%
Under 80.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos total 84.5 · main line
Over 84.5
40.8%
@ 1.77-10.3pp
Under 84.5
59.2%
@ 1.85+10.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
Under
1xBet
1.85
Panathinaikos total 88.5
Over 88.5
26.6%
Under 88.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Zalgiris Kaunas's side (positive = Zalgiris Kaunas win). Pythia's expected margin is +1.3; Zalgiris Kaunas win by 1+ in 48% of simulations.
Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -1.5
ZAL -1.5
51.9%
@ 2.07+7.7pp
PAO +1.5
48.1%
@ 1.64-7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
ZAL
1xBet
2.07
PAO
1xBet
1.64
Spread Zalgiris Kaunas +1.5 · main line
ZAL +1.5
57.7%
@ 1.94+7.9pp
PAO -1.5
42.3%
@ 1.92-7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
ZAL
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.85
PAO
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.83
Spread Zalgiris Kaunas +4.5
ZAL +4.5
68.6%
@ 1.54+9.7pp
PAO -4.5
31.4%
@ 2.21-9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
ZAL
1xBet
1.54
PAO
1xBet
2.21
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Zalgiris KaunasPanathinaikos
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PanathinaikosLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#10
L
35-43
35
43
-8
H16/10
Euroleague
Peristeri
#7
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H18/10
Basket League
Baskonia
#20
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H22/10
Euroleague
AS Karditsas
#5
W
47-25
47
25
+22
H24/10
Basket League
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H27/10
Euroleague
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
31-38
31
38
-7
A30/10
Euroleague
Aris
#4
L
47-55
47
55
-8
A01/11
Basket League
Real Madrid
#5
L
50-53
50
53
-3
A04/11
Euroleague
AEK Athens
#10
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A08/11
Basket League
Barcelona
#4
L
41-44
41
44
-3
H13/11
Euroleague
83.7Avg total
42.2Scored
41.5Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over main line
Last 30 (30)
44.3
40.8
85.1
+3.5
63%
-
Last 30 at home (17)
43.7
39.5
83.2
+4.2
71%
-
Last 30 away (13)
45.1
42.6
87.7
+2.5
54%
-
Last 10 (10)
42.2
41.5
83.7
+0.7
40%
-
Last 5 (5)
43.0
44.8
87.8
-1.8
20%
-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)
42.2
40.0
82.2
+2.2
60%
-
vs Similar (7)
46.7
45.4
92.1
+1.3
43%
-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)
43.9
39.3
83.2
+4.7
72%
-
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 2nd half markets priced for this game yet.
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Zalgiris Kaunastheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Zalgiris Kaunas: 78.7 points a game allowed
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
40.8
21.8
53.4%
55.2%
43.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
22.6
7.7
34.1%
35.7%
23.1
🏀Free throws
16.6
12.0
72.3%
77.1%
12.0
Their opponents take 63.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Panathinaikostheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Panathinaikos: 75.6 points a game allowed
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.3
19.6
52.5%
55.2%
39.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.6
7.9
29.7%
35.7%
23.7
🏀Free throws
17.2
12.7
73.8%
77.1%
12.7
Their opponents take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 58.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Zalgiris Kaunastheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Zalgiris Kaunas: 78.0 points a game allowed
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.5 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.8 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
41.9
22.3
53.2%
55.2%
44.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
21.9
7.3
33.2%
35.7%
21.8
🏀Free throws
15.9
11.6
73.0%
77.1%
11.6
Their opponents take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Panathinaikostheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Panathinaikos: 73.2 points a game allowed
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.9 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.3 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
30.1
18.0
59.8%
55.2%
36.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
28.2
8.6
30.6%
35.7%
25.9
🏀Free throws
14.8
11.3
76.1%
77.1%
11.3
Their opponents take 58.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Zalgiris Kaunas
WWWWWWWWWL
Panathinaikos
LWWLLWWWWL
#8
League position
#1
+11.2
Net rating
+8.3
106.4
Offensive rating
97.5
95.2
Defensive rating
89.3
59.8%
Effective FG%
54.5%
52.6%
Opp. effective FG%
49.2%
16.4%
Turnover %
16.5%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.39
43.4%
3-point %
34.4%
69.0%
Assist %
65.1%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
60%
Profile
■ Zalgiris Kaunas■ Panathinaikos
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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