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Adelaide Lightning W vs Geelong United W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 16 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 87-70
27-27 15-19 27-14 18-10
Position#6
Record6-14
FormLLWLL
Points / game72.1
Allowed / game76.8
Adelaide Lightning W 🏆
Australia
vs
Geelong United W
Australia
Position#8
Record6-14
FormLLLLL
Points / game72.2
Allowed / game83.1
AustraliaNBL WRound 15· Adelaide Arena
Women2024-25
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Geelong United W
16 Feb 2025
ADEL87
GEEL70
17 Feb 2024
ADEL70
GEEL61
01 Nov 2023
ADEL60
GEEL68
18 Dec 2022
ADEL64
GEEL89
26 Mar 2022
ADEL49
GEEL61
13 Mar 2022
ADEL49
GEEL72
30 Dec 2021
ADEL65
GEEL53
08 Dec 2020
ADEL55
GEEL76
10 Jan 2020
ADEL69
GEEL74
22 Nov 2019
ADEL57
GEEL71
31 Jan 2019
ADEL100
GEEL92
12 Jan 2019
ADEL83
GEEL98
21 Dec 2017
ADEL67
GEEL56
09 Dec 2017
ADEL62
GEEL64
10 Feb 2017
ADEL72
GEEL85
21 Oct 2016
ADEL61
GEEL66
29 Jan 2016
ADEL70
GEEL47
12 Dec 2014
ADEL59
GEEL73
15 Dec 2013
ADEL58
GEEL66
21 Dec 2012
ADEL69
GEEL59
04 Nov 2012
ADEL74
GEEL55
25 Feb 2012
ADEL71
GEEL73
10 Feb 2012
ADEL71
GEEL58
20 Nov 2011
ADEL87
GEEL77
15 Jan 2011
ADEL62
GEEL89
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Geelong United W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#5
W
86-73
86
73
+13
83avg 64
A22/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
67-95
67
95
-28
53avg 64
H27/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
77-88
77
88
-11
70avg 64
H03/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
76-94
76
94
-18
71avg 64
A05/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
76-91
76
91
-15
67avg 64
A11/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
60-84
60
84
-24
40avg 64
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
59-65
59
65
-6
47avg 64
A24/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
87-69
87
69
+18
82avg 64
H01/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
63-90
63
90
-27
52avg 64
H05/02
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
78-84
78
84
-6
71avg 64
A09/02
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-25
13-18
21-19
34-11
13-24
20-28
14-25
20-18
22-16
21-28
23-21
11-23
14-21
21-21
16-28
25-24
14-28
21-15
18-23
23-25
9-30
18-15
19-23
14-16
11-20
20-14
17-18
11-13
28-15
18-24
16-19
25-11
13-29
18-20
13-14
19-27
18-22
27-27
18-21
15-14
156.2Avg total
72.9Scored
83.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)72.176.8148.9-4.730%
Season at home (9)74.277.3151.6-3.144%
Season away (11)70.476.4146.7-6.018%
Last 10 (10)72.983.3156.2-10.420%
Last 5 (5)69.478.4147.8-9.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)69.977.9147.8-7.929%
vs Similar (12)75.876.9152.7-1.250%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)70.573.5144.0-3.025%
This opponent (Geelong United W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Geelong United WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#3
L
61-85
61
85
-24
36avg 60
A29/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
69-89
69
89
-20
49avg 60
A05/01
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
76-70
76
70
+6
64avg 60
A08/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
77-80
77
80
-3
64avg 60
H12/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
90-70
90
70
+20
81avg 60
H17/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
73-95
73
95
-22
62avg 60
A19/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
70-89
70
89
-19
59avg 60
A25/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
60-81
60
81
-21
52avg 60
H29/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
77-91
77
91
-14
64avg 60
H01/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
77-95
77
95
-18
63avg 60
A07/02
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-24
19-19
14-21
14-21
15-27
20-18
9-23
25-21
9-18
21-18
21-15
25-19
18-23
19-15
16-22
24-20
22-27
24-19
32-16
12-8
22-25
15-16
13-25
23-29
20-23
19-23
20-21
11-22
18-17
22-30
15-17
5-17
25-28
16-18
13-24
23-21
18-24
12-28
20-25
27-18
157.5Avg total
73.0Scored
84.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)72.283.1155.3-10.830%
Season at home (10)72.777.2149.9-4.540%
Season away (10)71.889.0160.8-17.220%
Last 10 (10)73.084.5157.5-11.520%
Last 5 (5)71.490.2161.6-18.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)72.283.1155.3-10.830%
vs Similar (8)80.577.1157.6+3.438%
vs Weaker (2)68.072.0140.0-4.050%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -7.0-7.0Q1: -5.5-5.5Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: -0.7-0.7
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -7.0-7.0Q1: -5.5-5.5Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: -0.7-0.7
Adelaide Lightning WGeelong United W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#5
L
31-43
31
43
-12
A22/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
33-52
33
52
-19
H27/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H03/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A05/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A11/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A24/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H01/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H05/02
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
45-49
45
49
-4
A09/02
NBL W
79.7Avg total
35.7Scored
44.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.239.476.5-2.233%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.040.080.0+0.046%-
Last 30 away (17)35.038.973.9-3.924%-
Last 10 (10)35.744.079.7-8.310%-
Last 5 (5)36.043.279.2-7.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)38.641.079.6-2.429%-
vs Similar (12)36.838.275.1-1.442%-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)33.237.070.2-3.825%-
This opponent (Geelong United W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Geelong United WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#3
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A29/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
35-45
35
45
-10
A05/01
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
30-36
30
36
-6
A08/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H12/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
D
46-46
46
46
+0
H17/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A19/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A25/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
40-47
40
47
-7
H29/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H01/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
30-52
30
52
-22
A07/02
NBL W
80.8Avg total
36.8Scored
44.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.442.780.1-5.320%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.241.080.2-1.833%-
Last 30 away (15)35.644.580.1-8.97%-
Last 10 (10)36.844.080.8-7.20%-
Last 5 (5)37.446.483.8-9.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)35.943.479.2-7.510%-
vs Similar (8)41.040.581.5+0.550%-
vs Weaker (2)38.545.083.5-6.50%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 71.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.9 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.921.5
46.8%
46.9%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.36.3
27.0%
32.2%18.9
🏀 Free throws15.69.8
62.8%
75.1%9.8
They take 69.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Geelong United Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Geelong United W: 72.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.320.2
41.8%
46.9%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.16.5
25.9%
32.2%19.5
🏀 Free throws17.512.1
69.1%
75.1%12.1
They take 73.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LLWLLLLLLW
Geelong United W
LLLLLWLWLL
#6
League position
#8
-13.4
Net rating
-15.1
88.8
Offensive rating
89.7
102.2
Defensive rating
104.8
44.7%
Effective FG%
40.8%
47.1%
Opp. effective FG%
53.7%
20.2%
Turnover %
19.0%
26.3%
Off. rebound %
33.5%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.24
27.0%
3-point %
25.9%
63.3%
Assist %
61.4%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence88.8 · 89.7Defence102.2 · 104.8Shooting44.7% · 40.8%3-point %27.0% · 25.9%Ball care20.2% · 19.0%Off. rebounds26.3% · 33.5%Free throws0.23 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)20% · 20%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Geelong United W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Adelaide Lightning W wins
8
Geelong United W wins
DateGameScore
08/12/24Geelong United W v Adelaide Lightning W69-59
16/11/24Geelong United W v Adelaide Lightning W72-66 OT
17/02/24Adelaide Lightning W v Geelong United W70-61
17/12/23Geelong United W v Adelaide Lightning W59-68
01/11/23Adelaide Lightning W v Geelong United W60-68
22/12/22Geelong United W v Adelaide Lightning W106-100 OT
18/12/22Adelaide Lightning W v Geelong United W64-89
13/11/22Geelong United W v Adelaide Lightning W85-81
26/03/22Adelaide Lightning W v Geelong United W49-61
24/03/22Geelong United W v Adelaide Lightning W95-64
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/02/25ASouthside W78-84
05/02/25HTownsville W63-90
01/02/25HPerth Lynx W87-69
24/01/25ABendigo W59-65
19/01/25ASydney W60-84
11/01/25ACanberra Capitals W76-91
05/01/25APerth Lynx W76-94
03/01/25HCanberra Capitals W77-88
27/12/24HBendigo W67-95
22/12/24ASydney W86-73
Geelong United Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/25APerth Lynx W77-95
01/02/25HCanberra Capitals W77-91
29/01/25HBendigo W60-81
25/01/25ATownsville W70-89
19/01/25ABendigo W73-95
17/01/25HSydney W90-70
12/01/25HPerth Lynx W77-80
08/01/25ASouthside W76-70
05/01/25ACanberra Capitals W69-89
29/12/24ATownsville W61-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL30%
HomeWLLWL44%
AwayLLLLL18%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20911
Win %30%44%18%
Points / game72.174.270.4
Allowed / game76.877.376.4
Point differential-4.7-3.1-6.0
Avg total148.9151.6146.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %5%0%9%
Geelong United W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL30%
HomeLLWLL40%
AwayLWLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %30%40%20%
Points / game72.272.771.8
Allowed / game83.177.289.0
Point differential-10.8-4.5-17.2
Avg total155.3149.9160.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %10%10%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W2118386%85.172.7+12.4
2 Townsville W2015575%81.671.0+10.6
3 Perth Lynx W2015575%86.879.2+7.6
4 Canberra Capitals W2181338%79.184.7-5.5
5 Sydney W2181338%77.282.9-5.6
6 Adelaide Lightning W2061430%72.176.8-4.7
7 Geelong United W2061430%72.283.1-10.8
8 Southside W2161529%80.584.3-3.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W2715271887
Geelong United W2719141070
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