PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Adelaide Lightning W vs Canberra Capitals W Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 03 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 77-88
22-16 21-28 23-21 11-23
Position#6
Record5-7
FormLWWWL
Points / game72.2
Allowed / game72.6
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
vs
Canberra Capitals W 🏆
Australia
Position#4
Record2-10
FormLLLLL
Points / game74.7
Allowed / game86.9
AustraliaNBL WRound 10· Adelaide Arena
Women2024-25
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W
20 Jan 2026
ADEL61
CANB67
01 Nov 2025
ADEL73
CANB65
03 Jan 2025
ADEL77
CANB88
15 Dec 2024
ADEL68
CANB67
28 Jan 2024
ADEL84
CANB67
30 Nov 2022
ADEL90
CANB80
17 Mar 2022
ADEL81
CANB50
30 Jan 2022
ADEL67
CANB80
11 Nov 2020
ADEL85
CANB73
27 Dec 2019
ADEL78
CANB68
13 Feb 2019
ADEL74
CANB73
14 Dec 2018
ADEL93
CANB73
02 Dec 2018
ADEL91
CANB83
25 Oct 2017
ADEL80
CANB77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Canberra Capitals W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#8
L
66-72 OT
66
72
-6
56avg 66
A16/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
78-54
78
54
+24
72avg 66
H20/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
47-53
47
53
-6
41avg 66
A23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
68-69
68
69
-1
66avg 66
H29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
97-71
97
71
+26
96avg 66
A06/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
59-69
59
69
-10
54avg 66
A08/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
68-67
68
67
+1
60avg 66
H15/12
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
82-72
82
72
+10
79avg 66
H20/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
86-73
86
73
+13
83avg 66
A22/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
67-95
67
95
-28
53avg 66
H27/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-13
17-19
22-15
7-17
20-11
18-12
16-17
24-14
18-9
22-11
2-16
5-17
19-22
21-20
21-8
7-19
28-17
18-17
23-11
28-26
19-14
7-18
13-16
20-21
17-15
22-13
19-19
10-20
24-19
23-23
21-20
14-10
18-25
13-18
21-19
34-11
13-24
20-28
14-25
20-18
141.3Avg total
71.8Scored
69.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)72.272.6144.8-0.442%
Season at home (6)73.574.8148.3-1.350%
Season away (6)70.870.3141.2+0.533%
Last 10 (10)71.869.5141.3+2.350%
Last 5 (5)72.475.2147.6-2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)67.773.7141.4-6.031%
vs Similar ◀ (10)77.774.0151.7+3.760%
vs Weaker (4)70.573.5144.0-3.025%
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Canberra Capitals WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
90-92
90
92
-2
77avg 62
H14/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
77-98
77
98
-21
46avg 62
A17/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
W
81-80
81
80
+1
72avg 62
H21/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
73-60
73
60
+13
63avg 62
A23/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
78-98
78
98
-20
67avg 62
A30/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
78-89
78
89
-11
70avg 62
H04/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
63-87
63
87
-24
47avg 62
A12/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
L
67-68
67
68
-1
54avg 62
A15/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
48-81
48
81
-33
28avg 62
A21/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
80-89
80
89
-9
66avg 62
H29/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-27
26-20
21-21
18-24
22-24
17-23
19-26
19-25
12-20
30-28
23-15
16-17
21-22
16-15
21-14
15-9
22-35
18-25
12-17
26-21
22-20
19-21
15-20
22-28
10-20
20-37
14-20
19-10
15-17
13-22
19-19
20-10
10-18
17-17
4-23
17-23
23-18
23-21
18-27
16-23
157.7Avg total
73.5Scored
84.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)74.786.9161.6-12.217%
Season at home (5)81.089.8170.8-8.820%
Season away (7)70.184.9155.0-14.714%
Last 10 (10)73.584.2157.7-10.720%
Last 5 (5)67.282.8150.0-15.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)74.484.7159.2-10.320%
vs Similar ◀ (4)76.889.2166.0-12.50%
vs Weaker (1)73.060.0133.0+13.0100%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q1: -3.9-3.9Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: -0.2-0.2
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q1: -3.9-3.9Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: -0.2-0.2
Adelaide Lightning WCanberra Capitals W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#8
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A16/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H20/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
W
40-20
40
20
+20
A23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A06/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
26-32
26
32
-6
A08/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H15/12
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H20/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
31-43
31
43
-12
A22/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
33-52
33
52
-19
H27/12
NBL W
72.3Avg total
37.5Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.336.873.1-0.440%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.936.774.5+1.247%-
Last 30 away (15)34.836.971.7-2.133%-
Last 10 (10)37.534.872.3+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)35.239.474.6-4.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)36.537.974.4-1.431%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)37.334.872.1+2.560%-
vs Weaker (4)33.237.070.2-3.825%-
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Canberra Capitals WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H14/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A17/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H21/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A23/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
40-60
40
60
-20
A30/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H04/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
30-57
30
57
-27
A12/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
L
28-39
28
39
-11
A15/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A21/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H29/12
NBL W
83.1Avg total
38.1Scored
45.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.343.681.9-5.427%-
Last 30 at home (13)41.342.784.0-1.446%-
Last 30 away (17)35.944.480.3-8.412%-
Last 10 (10)38.145.083.1-6.920%-
Last 5 (5)34.442.276.6-7.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)38.443.481.8-5.132%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)38.046.584.5-8.50%-
vs Weaker (1)37.037.074.0+0.00%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 71.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.8 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.719.8
44.3%
46.9%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.56.6
30.7%
32.2%19.8
🏀 Free throws15.411.6
75.3%
75.1%11.6
They take 66.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Canberra Capitals Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Canberra Capitals W: 72.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.8 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.521.4
42.4%
46.9%42.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.76.0
25.3%
32.2%18.0
🏀 Free throws17.111.7
68.4%
75.1%11.7
They take 74.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LWWWLWLLWL
Canberra Capitals W
LLLLLLWWLL
#6
League position
#4
+3.0
Net rating
-13.1
89.2
Offensive rating
88.7
86.2
Defensive rating
101.7
44.9%
Effective FG%
41.0%
39.9%
Opp. effective FG%
48.1%
20.5%
Turnover %
18.3%
24.6%
Off. rebound %
29.3%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.23
30.7%
3-point %
25.3%
66.7%
Assist %
58.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence89.2 · 88.7Defence86.2 · 101.7Shooting44.9% · 41.0%3-point %30.7% · 25.3%Ball care20.5% · 18.3%Off. rebounds24.6% · 29.3%Free throws0.23 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)50% · 20%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Canberra Capitals W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Adelaide Lightning W wins
3
Canberra Capitals W wins
DateGameScore
15/12/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W68-67
28/01/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W84-67
21/12/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W86-73
05/11/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W79-82
18/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W72-78
02/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W97-90 OT
30/11/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W90-80
17/03/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W81-50
30/01/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W67-80
19/12/21Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W62-88
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/12/24HBendigo W67-95
22/12/24ASydney W86-73
20/12/24HSouthside W82-72
15/12/24HCanberra Capitals W68-67
08/12/24AGeelong United W59-69
06/12/24ASouthside W97-71
29/11/24HTownsville W68-69
23/11/24ATownsville W47-53
20/11/24HSydney W78-54
16/11/24AGeelong United W66-72 OT
Canberra Capitals Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/24HPerth Lynx W80-89
21/12/24ATownsville W48-81
15/12/24AAdelaide Lightning W67-68
12/12/24APerth Lynx W63-87
04/12/24HSouthside W78-89
30/11/24ABendigo W78-98
23/11/24AGeelong United W73-60
21/11/24HTownsville W81-80
17/11/24ASouthside W77-98
14/11/24HPerth Lynx W90-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL42%
HomeWLWWL50%
AwayLLWLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %42%50%33%
Points / game72.273.570.8
Allowed / game72.674.870.3
Point differential-0.4-1.3+0.5
Avg total144.8148.3141.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %8%0%17%
Canberra Capitals W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL17%
HomeLLWLL20%
AwayWLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1257
Win %17%20%14%
Points / game74.781.070.1
Allowed / game86.989.884.9
Point differential-12.2-8.8-14.7
Avg total161.6170.8155.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%0%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W1412286%86.173.6+12.5
2 Perth Lynx W1310377%86.277.8+8.5
3 Townsville W127558%77.972.3+5.6
4 Adelaide Lightning W125742%72.272.6-0.4
5 Sydney W125742%79.482.6-3.2
6 Geelong United W114736%70.582.0-11.5
7 Southside W124833%83.386.3-3.0
8 Canberra Capitals W1221017%74.786.9-12.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W2221231177
Canberra Capitals W1628212388
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.