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Perth Lynx W vs Adelaide Lightning W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 05 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 05:00
Final 94-76
21-14 21-21 28-16 24-25
Position#2
Record10-3
FormLWWWW
Points / game86.2
Allowed / game77.8
Perth Lynx W 🏆
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#6
Record5-8
FormWWWLL
Points / game72.5
Allowed / game73.8
AustraliaNBL WRound 10· HBF Stadium
Women2024-25
Meetings · Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W
10 Jan 2026
PERT80
ADEL65
02 Jan 2026
PERT93
ADEL75
05 Jan 2025
PERT94
ADEL76
07 Jan 2024
PERT84
ADEL68
11 Nov 2023
PERT92
ADEL85
30 Dec 2022
PERT82
ADEL72
09 Mar 2022
PERT84
ADEL73
07 Mar 2022
PERT104
ADEL79
15 Nov 2020
PERT69
ADEL74
26 Oct 2019
PERT86
ADEL90
19 Jan 2019
PERT81
ADEL82
13 Oct 2018
PERT66
ADEL78
15 Dec 2017
PERT99
ADEL82
18 Dec 2016
PERT102
ADEL52
30 Oct 2016
PERT95
ADEL63
24 Jan 2016
PERT76
ADEL67
20 Nov 2015
PERT93
ADEL85
18 Oct 2014
PERT92
ADEL68
08 Feb 2014
PERT57
ADEL70
22 Dec 2012
PERT64
ADEL77
27 Oct 2012
PERT65
ADEL75
13 Jan 2012
PERT51
ADEL84
17 Dec 2011
PERT57
ADEL78
20 Nov 2010
PERT68
ADEL56
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Perth Lynx W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Perth Lynx WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
92-90
92
90
+2
85avg 78
A14/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
84-78
84
78
+6
64avg 78
H23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
W
106-80
106
80
+26
110avg 78
H27/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
89-82
89
82
+7
85avg 78
A01/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
66-72
66
72
-6
56avg 78
H05/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
75-86
75
86
-11
59avg 78
A07/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
87-63
87
63
+24
78avg 78
H12/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
W
71-68
71
68
+3
55avg 78
A19/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
96-71
96
71
+25
95avg 78
H23/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
89-80
89
80
+9
82avg 78
A29/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-25
20-26
21-21
24-18
19-29
24-25
21-10
20-14
21-17
33-23
31-17
21-23
21-19
30-21
19-26
19-16
14-17
21-15
18-15
13-25
20-23
21-23
17-18
17-22
20-10
37-20
20-14
10-19
22-16
12-22
17-14
20-16
23-19
22-17
21-17
30-18
18-23
21-23
27-18
23-16
162.5Avg total
85.5Scored
77.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)86.277.8164.0+8.577%
Season at home (7)87.675.3162.9+12.371%
Season away (6)84.780.7165.3+4.083%
Last 10 (10)85.577.0162.5+8.580%
Last 5 (5)83.673.6157.2+10.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)81.386.7168.0-5.350%
vs Similar (12)86.687.1173.7-0.542%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)88.879.8168.5+9.083%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#5
W
78-54
78
54
+24
72avg 66
H20/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
47-53
47
53
-6
41avg 66
A23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
68-69
68
69
-1
66avg 66
H29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
97-71
97
71
+26
96avg 66
A06/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
59-69
59
69
-10
54avg 66
A08/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
68-67
68
67
+1
60avg 66
H15/12
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
82-72
82
72
+10
79avg 66
H20/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
86-73
86
73
+13
83avg 66
A22/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
67-95
67
95
-28
53avg 66
H27/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
77-88
77
88
-11
70avg 66
H03/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-11
18-12
16-17
24-14
18-9
22-11
2-16
5-17
19-22
21-20
21-8
7-19
28-17
18-17
23-11
28-26
19-14
7-18
13-16
20-21
17-15
22-13
19-19
10-20
24-19
23-23
21-20
14-10
18-25
13-18
21-19
34-11
13-24
20-28
14-25
20-18
22-16
21-28
23-21
11-23
144.0Avg total
72.9Scored
71.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)72.573.8146.3-1.238%
Season at home (7)74.076.7150.7-2.743%
Season away (6)70.870.3141.2+0.533%
Last 10 (10)72.971.1144.0+1.850%
Last 5 (5)76.079.0155.0-3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)67.774.9142.6-7.127%
vs Similar (11)77.675.3152.9+2.455%
vs Weaker (4)70.573.5144.0-3.025%
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +4.2+4.2Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -0.6-0.6
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +4.2+4.2Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -0.6-0.6
Perth Lynx WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Perth Lynx WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
47-51
47
51
-4
A14/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
43-54
43
54
-11
H23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
W
54-40
54
40
+14
H27/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
51-40
51
40
+11
A01/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H05/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A07/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
57-30
57
30
+27
H12/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A19/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
45-36
45
36
+9
H23/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A29/12
NBL W
85.9Avg total
44.6Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.044.089.1+1.040%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.441.988.3+4.464%-
Last 30 away (16)43.945.989.8-2.019%-
Last 10 (10)44.641.385.9+3.350%-
Last 5 (5)43.239.282.4+4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)43.242.886.0+0.333%-
vs Similar (12)44.646.290.8-1.733%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)46.442.488.8+4.050%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#5
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H20/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
W
40-20
40
20
+20
A23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A06/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
26-32
26
32
-6
A08/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H15/12
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H20/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
31-43
31
43
-12
A22/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
33-52
33
52
-19
H27/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H03/01
NBL W
74.3Avg total
38.3Scored
36.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.537.473.8-0.937%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.137.976.0+0.340%-
Last 30 away (15)34.836.971.7-2.133%-
Last 10 (10)38.336.074.3+2.350%-
Last 5 (5)38.641.880.4-3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)36.338.775.1-2.427%-
vs Similar (11)37.835.673.5+2.255%-
vs Weaker (4)33.237.070.2-3.825%-
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Perth Lynx Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Perth Lynx W: 78.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.820.1
53.2%
46.9%40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.38.3
30.4%
32.2%24.9
🏀 Free throws18.513.7
74.1%
75.1%13.7
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 72.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.4 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.620.0
45.9%
46.9%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.86.8
31.2%
32.2%20.4
🏀 Free throws16.111.9
73.9%
75.1%11.9
They take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Perth Lynx W
WWWWLLWWWW
Adelaide Lightning W
LLWWWLWLLW
#2
League position
#6
+12.0
Net rating
+2.9
104.7
Offensive rating
92.0
92.7
Defensive rating
89.1
50.0%
Effective FG%
46.2%
44.3%
Opp. effective FG%
41.5%
17.9%
Turnover %
19.7%
30.7%
Off. rebound %
24.4%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.25
30.4%
3-point %
31.2%
54.9%
Assist %
68.3%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence104.7 · 92.0Defence92.7 · 89.1Shooting50.0% · 46.2%3-point %30.4% · 31.2%Ball care17.9% · 19.7%Off. rebounds30.7% · 24.4%Free throws0.28 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)80% · 50%
■ Perth Lynx W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Perth Lynx W wins
1
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
09/11/24Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W78-92
07/01/24Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W84-68
10/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W95-98 OT
11/11/23Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W92-85
02/03/23Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W93-97
16/02/23Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W82-108
30/12/22Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W82-72
09/03/22Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W84-73
07/03/22Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W104-79
02/01/22Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W88-86
Perth Lynx Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/24ACanberra Capitals W89-80
23/12/24HGeelong United W96-71
19/12/24ABendigo W71-68
12/12/24HCanberra Capitals W87-63
07/12/24ASydney W75-86
05/12/24HBendigo W66-72
01/12/24ASouthside W89-82
27/11/24HTownsville W106-80
23/11/24HSydney W84-78
14/11/24ACanberra Capitals W92-90
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/25HCanberra Capitals W77-88
27/12/24HBendigo W67-95
22/12/24ASydney W86-73
20/12/24HSouthside W82-72
15/12/24HCanberra Capitals W68-67
08/12/24AGeelong United W59-69
06/12/24ASouthside W97-71
29/11/24HTownsville W68-69
23/11/24ATownsville W47-53
20/11/24HSydney W78-54

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Perth Lynx W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW77%
HomeWWLWW71%
AwayWWLWW83%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %77%71%83%
Points / game86.287.684.7
Allowed / game77.875.380.7
Point differential+8.5+12.3+4.0
Avg total164.0162.9165.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%57%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)0% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL38%
HomeLWWLL43%
AwayLLWLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %38%43%33%
Points / game72.574.070.8
Allowed / game73.876.770.3
Point differential-1.2-2.7+0.5
Avg total146.3150.7141.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%29%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %8%0%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W1412286%86.173.6+12.5
2 Perth Lynx W1310377%86.277.8+8.5
3 Townsville W138562%77.972.5+5.4
4 Sydney W125742%79.482.6-3.2
5 Adelaide Lightning W135838%72.573.8-1.2
6 Geelong United W124833%70.482.6-12.2
7 Southside W134931%82.785.7-3.0
8 Canberra Capitals W1441029%76.684.9-8.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Perth Lynx W2121282494
Adelaide Lightning W1421162576
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