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Canberra Capitals W vs Adelaide Lightning W Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 04:30
Final 91-76
28-14 15-21 23-18 25-23
Position#4
Record4-10
FormLLLWW
Points / game76.6
Allowed / game84.9
Canberra Capitals W 🏆
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#6
Record5-9
FormWWLLL
Points / game72.8
Allowed / game75.2
AustraliaNBL WRound 11· AIS Arena
Women2024-25
Meetings · Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W
09 Dec 2025
CANB76
ADEL71
11 Jan 2025
CANB91
ADEL76
21 Dec 2023
CANB86
ADEL73
05 Nov 2023
CANB79
ADEL82
18 Feb 2023
CANB72
ADEL78
02 Feb 2023
CANB97
ADEL90
19 Dec 2021
CANB62
ADEL88
04 Dec 2020
CANB85
ADEL65
01 Feb 2020
CANB73
ADEL71
13 Oct 2019
CANB90
ADEL83
16 Feb 2019
CANB93
ADEL73
09 Feb 2019
CANB88
ADEL67
21 Oct 2018
CANB79
ADEL75
17 Dec 2017
CANB88
ADEL87
08 Oct 2017
CANB84
ADEL77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Canberra Capitals W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Canberra Capitals WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#3
W
81-80
81
80
+1
72avg 64
H21/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
73-60
73
60
+13
63avg 64
A23/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
78-98
78
98
-20
67avg 64
A30/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
78-89
78
89
-11
70avg 64
H04/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
63-87
63
87
-24
47avg 64
A12/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
L
67-68
67
68
-1
54avg 64
A15/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
48-81
48
81
-33
28avg 64
A21/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
80-89
80
89
-9
66avg 64
H29/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
W
88-77
88
77
+11
82avg 64
A03/01
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
89-69
89
69
+20
99avg 64
H05/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-20
30-28
23-15
16-17
21-22
16-15
21-14
15-9
22-35
18-25
12-17
26-21
22-20
19-21
15-20
22-28
10-20
20-37
14-20
19-10
15-17
13-22
19-19
20-10
10-18
17-17
4-23
17-23
23-18
23-21
18-27
16-23
16-22
28-21
21-23
23-11
27-15
18-20
23-9
21-25
154.3Avg total
74.5Scored
79.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)76.684.9161.6-8.329%
Season at home (6)82.386.3168.7-4.033%
Season away (8)72.483.9156.2-11.525%
Last 10 (10)74.579.8154.3-5.340%
Last 5 (5)74.476.8151.2-2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)74.284.6158.8-10.422%
vs Similar ◀ (5)79.086.8165.8-7.820%
vs Weaker (2)81.064.5145.5+16.5100%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#3
L
47-53
47
53
-6
41avg 67
A23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
68-69
68
69
-1
66avg 67
H29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
97-71
97
71
+26
96avg 67
A06/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
59-69
59
69
-10
54avg 67
A08/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
68-67
68
67
+1
60avg 67
H15/12
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
82-72
82
72
+10
79avg 67
H20/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
86-73
86
73
+13
83avg 67
A22/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
67-95
67
95
-28
53avg 67
H27/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
77-88
77
88
-11
70avg 67
H03/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
76-94
76
94
-18
71avg 67
A05/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-9
22-11
2-16
5-17
19-22
21-20
21-8
7-19
28-17
18-17
23-11
28-26
19-14
7-18
13-16
20-21
17-15
22-13
19-19
10-20
24-19
23-23
21-20
14-10
18-25
13-18
21-19
34-11
13-24
20-28
14-25
20-18
22-16
21-28
23-21
11-23
14-21
21-21
16-28
25-24
147.8Avg total
72.7Scored
75.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)72.875.2148.0-2.436%
Season at home (7)74.076.7150.7-2.743%
Season away (7)71.673.7145.3-2.129%
Last 10 (10)72.775.1147.8-2.440%
Last 5 (5)77.684.4162.0-6.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)69.476.2145.6-6.827%
vs Similar ◀ (11)77.675.3152.9+2.455%
vs Weaker (4)70.573.5144.0-3.025%
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.9-2.9Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: +1.8+1.8Q4: -1.5-1.5
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.9-2.9Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: +1.8+1.8Q4: -1.5-1.5
Canberra Capitals WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Canberra Capitals WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#3
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H21/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A23/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
40-60
40
60
-20
A30/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H04/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
30-57
30
57
-27
A12/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
L
28-39
28
39
-11
A15/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A21/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H29/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A03/01
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H05/01
NBL W
81.4Avg total
38.0Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.943.682.4-4.733%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.642.183.7-0.650%-
Last 30 away (16)36.544.881.3-8.319%-
Last 10 (10)38.043.481.4-5.430%-
Last 5 (5)38.038.276.2-0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)38.643.782.3-5.135%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)39.245.885.0-6.620%-
vs Weaker (2)41.036.077.0+5.050%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#3
W
40-20
40
20
+20
A23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A06/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
26-32
26
32
-6
A08/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H15/12
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H20/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
31-43
31
43
-12
A22/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
33-52
33
52
-19
H27/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H03/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A05/01
NBL W
75.9Avg total
38.0Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.837.574.3-0.737%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.137.976.9+1.243%-
Last 30 away (16)34.837.272.0-2.431%-
Last 10 (10)38.037.975.9+0.140%-
Last 5 (5)37.844.682.4-6.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)37.039.076.0-2.027%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)37.835.673.5+2.255%-
vs Weaker (4)33.237.070.2-3.825%-
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Canberra Capitals Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Canberra Capitals W: 73.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.0 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.4 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.121.0
42.8%
46.9%42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.96.8
29.7%
32.2%20.4
🏀 Free throws16.811.1
66.1%
75.1%11.1
They take 72.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 71.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.2 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.519.1
44.9%
46.9%38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.47.3
31.2%
32.2%21.9
🏀 Free throws16.511.8
71.5%
75.1%11.8
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Canberra Capitals W
WWLLLLLLWW
Adelaide Lightning W
LLLWWWLWLL
#4
League position
#6
-6.7
Net rating
-2.9
89.4
Offensive rating
90.0
96.1
Defensive rating
92.9
43.3%
Effective FG%
45.6%
44.8%
Opp. effective FG%
43.6%
20.3%
Turnover %
20.7%
29.6%
Off. rebound %
25.1%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.25
29.7%
3-point %
31.2%
61.2%
Assist %
72.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence89.4 · 90.0Defence96.1 · 92.9Shooting43.3% · 45.6%3-point %29.7% · 31.2%Ball care20.3% · 20.7%Off. rebounds29.6% · 25.1%Free throws0.23 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Canberra Capitals W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Canberra Capitals W wins
6
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
03/01/25Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W77-88
15/12/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W68-67
28/01/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W84-67
21/12/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W86-73
05/11/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W79-82
18/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W72-78
02/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W97-90 OT
30/11/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W90-80
17/03/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W81-50
30/01/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W67-80
Canberra Capitals Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/01/25HGeelong United W89-69
03/01/25AAdelaide Lightning W88-77
29/12/24HPerth Lynx W80-89
21/12/24ATownsville W48-81
15/12/24AAdelaide Lightning W67-68
12/12/24APerth Lynx W63-87
04/12/24HSouthside W78-89
30/11/24ABendigo W78-98
23/11/24AGeelong United W73-60
21/11/24HTownsville W81-80
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/01/25APerth Lynx W76-94
03/01/25HCanberra Capitals W77-88
27/12/24HBendigo W67-95
22/12/24ASydney W86-73
20/12/24HSouthside W82-72
15/12/24HCanberra Capitals W68-67
08/12/24AGeelong United W59-69
06/12/24ASouthside W97-71
29/11/24HTownsville W68-69
23/11/24ATownsville W47-53

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Canberra Capitals W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW29%
HomeLWLLW33%
AwayLLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1468
Win %29%33%25%
Points / game76.682.372.4
Allowed / game84.986.383.9
Point differential-8.3-4.0-11.5
Avg total161.6168.7156.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%17%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL36%
HomeLWWLL43%
AwayLWLWL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %36%43%29%
Points / game72.874.071.6
Allowed / game75.276.773.7
Point differential-2.4-2.7-2.1
Avg total148.0150.7145.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%29%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %7%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W1412286%86.173.6+12.5
2 Perth Lynx W1411379%86.877.6+9.1
3 Townsville W138562%77.972.5+5.4
4 Sydney W125742%79.482.6-3.2
5 Geelong United W135838%70.881.6-10.8
6 Adelaide Lightning W145936%72.875.2-2.4
7 Southside W1441029%81.885.0-3.2
8 Canberra Capitals W1441029%76.684.9-8.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Canberra Capitals W2815232591
Adelaide Lightning W1421182376
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