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AEK Larnaca vs Varese Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 23 Jan 2019
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 59-74
22-21 17-14 12-19 8-20
Position#27
Record4-5
FormLLWWW
Points / game74.2
Allowed / game82.6
vs
Varese 🏆
Position#4
Record8-1
FormWLWLL
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game73.3
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 4
European cup2018
Meetings · AEK Larnaca v Varese
23 Jan 2019
ALA59
VAR74
06 Jan 2016
ALA65
VAR61
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AEK Larnaca winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AEK LarnacaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Keravnos
#2
W
100-95 OT
100
95
+5
A08/12
Division A
Varese
#4
L
74-109
74
109
-35
A12/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Donar Groningen
#16
L
56-78
56
78
-22
H19/12
FIBA Europe Cup
AEL
#7
W
81-80
81
80
+1
A22/12
Division A
Paralimni
#8
W
71-55
71
55
+16
H29/12
Division A
Apollon
#4
L
81-85
81
85
-4
A05/01
Division A
Sassari
#1
L
89-96
89
96
-7
H09/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Omonia
#5
W
83-77
83
77
+6
H12/01
Division A
Apoel BC
#3
W
83-69
83
69
+14
H16/01
Division A
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
84-64
84
64
+20
H19/01
Division A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-29
10-24
26-13
25-17
20-28
23-26
18-30
13-25
17-18
18-19
13-22
8-19
24-21
14-21
21-22
22-16
18-9
16-14
18-22
19-10
24-14
18-28
22-18
17-25
18-24
22-17
21-28
28-27
27-14
18-20
16-12
22-31
28-17
16-14
20-19
19-19
21-13
23-18
18-16
22-17
161.0Avg total
80.2Scored
80.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)74.282.6156.8-8.344%
Season at home (5)71.678.4150.0-6.840%
Season away (4)77.587.8165.2-10.250%
Last 10 (10)80.280.8161.0-0.660%
Last 5 (5)84.078.2162.2+5.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)72.582.0154.5-9.536%
vs Similar (5)74.671.8146.4+2.880%
vs Weaker (14)79.469.0148.4+10.486%
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
AEK Larnaca
#27
W
109-74
109
74
+35
H12/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Torino
#13
W
77-60
77
60
+17
H16/12
Lega A
Sassari
#1
W
90-87
90
87
+3
A19/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
67-72
67
72
-5
A23/12
Lega A
Cantu
#8
W
89-71
89
71
+18
H25/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#15
W
98-78
98
78
+20
A30/12
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
L
65-71
65
71
-6
A06/01
Lega A
Donar Groningen
#16
W
73-67
73
67
+6
A09/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
79-86
79
86
-7
H13/01
Lega A
Brescia
#12
L
73-78
73
78
-5
A20/01
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-20
26-23
30-18
25-13
22-14
17-15
21-19
17-12
24-27
15-23
24-27
27-10
12-17
16-20
21-14
18-21
37-18
17-19
18-17
17-17
25-22
24-20
28-15
21-21
17-23
18-13
16-16
14-19
13-13
22-22
22-17
16-15
20-29
13-16
23-15
23-26
17-16
11-25
25-22
20-15
156.4Avg total
82.0Scored
74.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)88.273.3161.6+14.989%
Season at home (4)92.568.5161.0+24.0100%
Season away (5)84.877.2162.0+7.680%
Last 10 (10)82.074.4156.4+7.660%
Last 5 (5)77.676.0153.6+1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)90.087.0177.0+3.0100%
vs Similar (11)73.372.0145.3+1.345%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)83.974.9158.8+9.067%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.2+3.2Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: +4.8+4.8Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +2.9+2.9
AEK LarnacaVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AEK LarnacaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Keravnos
#2
L
32-53
32
53
-21
A08/12
Division A
Varese
#4
L
43-54
43
54
-11
A12/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Donar Groningen
#16
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H19/12
FIBA Europe Cup
AEL
#7
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A22/12
Division A
Paralimni
#8
W
34-23
34
23
+11
H29/12
Division A
Apollon
#4
D
42-42
42
42
+0
A05/01
Division A
Sassari
#1
L
40-41
40
41
-1
H09/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Omonia
#5
W
45-34
45
34
+11
H12/01
Division A
Apoel BC
#3
W
44-31
44
31
+13
H16/01
Division A
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
44-31
44
31
+13
H19/01
Division A
78.5Avg total
39.7Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.837.875.6-0.143%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.734.671.2+2.150%-
Last 30 away (14)39.041.680.6-2.636%-
Last 10 (10)39.738.878.5+0.940%-
Last 5 (5)43.035.878.8+7.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)37.939.977.8-2.027%-
vs Similar (5)33.440.674.0-7.240%-
vs Weaker (14)39.235.274.4+4.057%-
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
AEK Larnaca
#27
W
54-43
54
43
+11
H12/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Torino
#13
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H16/12
Lega A
Sassari
#1
L
39-50
39
50
-11
A19/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A23/12
Lega A
Cantu
#8
W
54-37
54
37
+17
H25/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#15
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A30/12
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A06/01
Lega A
Donar Groningen
#16
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A09/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
33-45
33
45
-12
H13/01
Lega A
Brescia
#12
L
28-41
28
41
-13
A20/01
Lega A
78.9Avg total
39.4Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.536.576.1+3.070%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.136.379.4+6.893%-
Last 30 away (16)36.436.873.2-0.350%-
Last 10 (10)39.439.578.9-0.140%-
Last 5 (5)36.039.875.8-3.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)39.050.089.0-11.00%-
vs Similar (11)36.335.271.5+1.173%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)41.636.678.2+4.972%-
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
AEK Larnacatheir own shots, last 10 games
No box scores for this team yet.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 77.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.1 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.5 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.218.8
49.2%
52.5%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.79.6
33.4%
34.1%28.8
🏀 Free throws15.511.1
71.6%
73.3%11.1
They take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
AEK Larnaca wins
2
Varese wins
DateGameScore
12/12/18Varese v AEK Larnaca109-74
27/01/16Varese v AEK Larnaca74-72
06/01/16AEK Larnaca v Varese65-61
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/01/19HETHA Engomi84-64
16/01/19HApoel BC83-69
12/01/19HOmonia83-77
09/01/19HSassari89-96
05/01/19AApollon81-85
29/12/18HParalimni71-55
22/12/18AAEL81-80
19/12/18HDonar Groningen56-78
12/12/18AVarese74-109
08/12/18AKeravnos100-95 OT
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/19ABrescia73-78
13/01/19HVirtus Bologna79-86
09/01/19ADonar Groningen73-67
06/01/19APistoia65-71
30/12/18APesaro98-78
25/12/18HCantu89-71
23/12/18AOlimpia Milano67-72
19/12/18ASassari90-87
16/12/18HTorino77-60
12/12/18HAEK Larnaca109-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

AEK Larnaca
FIBA Europe Cup 2018
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL44%
HomeLWWLL40%
AwayWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %44%40%50%
Points / game74.271.677.5
Allowed / game82.678.487.8
Point differential-8.3-6.8-10.2
Avg total156.8150.0165.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Varese
FIBA Europe Cup 2018
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW89%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWLWWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %89%100%80%
Points / game88.292.584.8
Allowed / game73.368.577.2
Point differential+14.9+24.0+7.6
Avg total161.6161.0162.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%75%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bakken Bears98189%100.976.1+24.8
2 Varese98189%88.273.3+14.9
3 Sassari119282%93.778.5+15.3
4 Saratov108280%92.479.8+12.6
5 s.Oliver Wurzburg97278%85.974.6+11.3
6 Alba Fehervar129375%83.777.7+6.0
7 Nes Ziona139469%90.882.6+8.2
8 Karsiyaka96367%84.276.4+7.8
9 Donar Groningen96367%77.372.6+4.8
10 Leiden117464%76.178.4-2.3
11 Balkan127558%78.275.0+3.2
12 Lukoil Levski95456%80.281.4-1.2
13 Szolnoki Olaj95456%80.783.0-2.3
14 Z-Mobile Prishtina95456%83.287.9-4.7
15 Spirou Charleroi63350%81.070.5+10.5
16 Sakarya BB63350%80.075.2+4.8
17 Den Bosch84450%82.879.8+3.0
18 Aris63350%74.072.0+2.0
19 Minsk63350%82.882.2+0.7
20 Kataja147750%80.884.0-3.2
21 Keravnos21150%64.068.0-4.0
22 Lavrio21150%70.074.5-4.5
23 Cluj Napoca21150%83.589.5-6.0
24 BC Lulea21150%64.080.0-16.0
25 AEK Larnaca94544%74.282.6-8.3
26 Cherkaski Mavpy104640%80.184.3-4.2
27 Szombathely62433%74.384.5-10.2
28 BC Dnipro103730%71.776.9-5.2
29 Istanbul BB103730%72.279.4-7.2
30 Rilski Sportist82625%79.187.9-8.8
31 Belfius Mons61517%74.878.3-3.5
32 FC Porto61517%79.285.5-6.3
33 CSM Oradea61517%75.584.5-9.0
34 BC Steaua Bucuresti61517%71.386.5-15.2
35 Leicester Riders6060%74.587.7-13.2
36 HydroTruck Radom2020%67.080.5-13.5
37 Kapfenberg Bulls2020%59.573.5-14.0
38 Sodertalje2020%71.586.0-14.5
39 Kongsberg Miners2020%76.592.0-15.5
40 Svitavy2020%76.098.5-22.5
41 Pardubice6060%77.3100.8-23.5
42 Benfica2020%79.0105.5-26.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
AEK Larnaca221712859
Varese2114192074
← all games of the day
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