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Pistoia vs Varese Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 06 Jan 2019
Tip-off: 18:05
Final 71-65
23-17 13-18 16-16 19-14
Position#16
Record3-10
FormWLLLL
Points / game78.8
Allowed / game90.1
Pistoia 🏆
Italy
vs
Varese
Italy
Position#7
Record9-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game78.7
Allowed / game72.8
ItalyLega ARound 14
Domestic2018-19
Meetings · Pistoia v Varese
19 Jan 2025
PIS111
VAR96
05 May 2024
PIS78
VAR96
17 Apr 2020
PIS v VAR
upcoming
06 Jan 2019
PIS71
VAR65
04 Mar 2018
PIS74
VAR65
30 Oct 2016
PIS97
VAR64
13 Dec 2015
PIS67
VAR65
03 May 2015
PIS87
VAR103
08 Dec 2013
PIS89
VAR76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pistoia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Varese winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PistoiaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brindisi
#5
L
74-90
74
90
-16
H28/10
Lega A
Trieste
#10
L
79-96
79
96
-17
A04/11
Lega A
Cremona
#3
L
73-90
73
90
-17
H11/11
Lega A
Sassari
#4
W
113-111
113
111
+2
A18/11
Lega A
Reggiana
#14
W
84-82
84
82
+2
A24/11
Lega A
Brescia
#12
W
73-70
73
70
+3
H09/12
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
71-81
71
81
-10
H16/12
Lega A
Torino
#13
L
80-86
80
86
-6
A23/12
Lega A
Trento
#6
L
70-78
70
78
-8
H26/12
Lega A
Cantu
#8
L
79-100
79
100
-21
A30/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-28
22-21
19-12
17-29
21-31
14-21
15-23
29-21
17-20
22-22
15-22
19-26
30-28
22-29
25-26
36-28
21-15
19-17
23-20
21-30
19-15
16-20
22-20
16-15
12-28
16-22
16-21
27-10
21-13
29-23
17-26
13-24
20-23
16-12
18-21
16-22
17-26
18-24
21-25
23-25
168.0Avg total
79.6Scored
88.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)78.890.1168.9-11.223%
Season at home (6)71.784.3156.0-12.717%
Season away (7)85.095.0180.0-10.029%
Last 10 (10)79.688.4168.0-8.830%
Last 5 (5)74.683.0157.6-8.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)76.886.6163.4-9.828%
vs Similar (4)76.882.0158.8-5.225%
vs Weaker (1)91.069.0160.0+22.0100%
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cremona
#3
W
82-79
82
79
+3
A18/11
Lega A
Alba Fehervar
#7
W
91-66
91
66
+25
H21/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#5
W
85-67
85
67
+18
H25/11
Lega A
Venezia
#2
W
66-61
66
61
+5
A09/12
Lega A
AEK Larnaca
#27
W
109-74
109
74
+35
H12/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Torino
#13
W
77-60
77
60
+17
H16/12
Lega A
Sassari
#1
W
90-87
90
87
+3
A19/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
67-72
67
72
-5
A23/12
Lega A
Cantu
#8
W
89-71
89
71
+18
H25/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#15
W
98-78
98
78
+20
A30/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-10
14-28
22-18
21-23
15-11
22-16
26-24
28-15
24-12
18-23
27-16
16-16
13-26
17-7
14-10
22-18
28-20
26-23
30-18
25-13
22-14
17-15
21-19
17-12
24-27
15-23
24-27
27-10
12-17
16-20
21-14
18-21
37-18
17-19
18-17
17-17
25-22
24-20
28-15
21-21
156.9Avg total
85.4Scored
71.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)78.772.8151.5+5.869%
Season at home (7)83.173.1156.3+10.086%
Season away (6)73.572.5146.0+1.050%
Last 10 (10)85.471.5156.9+13.990%
Last 5 (5)84.273.6157.8+10.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)90.087.0177.0+3.0100%
vs Similar (13)73.671.8145.5+1.854%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)85.274.0159.2+11.281%
This opponent (Pistoia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -3.3-3.3Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: -0.8-0.8Q3Q3: -2.5-2.5Q3: +5.3+5.3Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +4.6+4.6
PistoiaVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PistoiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brindisi
#5
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H28/10
Lega A
Trieste
#10
L
35-52
35
52
-17
A04/11
Lega A
Cremona
#3
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H11/11
Lega A
Sassari
#4
L
52-57
52
57
-5
A18/11
Lega A
Reggiana
#14
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A24/11
Lega A
Brescia
#12
D
35-35
35
35
+0
H09/12
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
28-50
28
50
-22
H16/12
Lega A
Torino
#13
W
50-36
50
36
+14
A23/12
Lega A
Trento
#6
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H26/12
Lega A
Cantu
#8
L
35-50
35
50
-15
A30/12
Lega A
82.6Avg total
38.8Scored
43.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.841.980.7-3.140%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.138.875.9-1.747%-
Last 30 away (15)40.544.985.5-4.433%-
Last 10 (10)38.843.882.6-5.030%-
Last 5 (5)36.841.278.0-4.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)38.243.081.2-4.832%-
vs Similar (4)40.837.077.8+3.875%-
vs Weaker (1)46.034.080.0+12.0100%-
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cremona
#3
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A18/11
Lega A
Alba Fehervar
#7
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H21/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#5
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H25/11
Lega A
Venezia
#2
L
30-33
30
33
-3
A09/12
Lega A
AEK Larnaca
#27
W
54-43
54
43
+11
H12/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Torino
#13
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H16/12
Lega A
Sassari
#1
L
39-50
39
50
-11
A19/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A23/12
Lega A
Cantu
#8
W
54-37
54
37
+17
H25/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#15
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A30/12
Lega A
78.2Avg total
41.1Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.935.975.8+3.977%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.535.077.5+7.593%-
Last 30 away (15)37.236.974.1+0.360%-
Last 10 (10)41.137.178.2+4.070%-
Last 5 (5)41.839.080.8+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)39.050.089.0-11.00%-
vs Similar (13)36.235.271.4+0.969%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)42.935.678.6+7.388%-
This opponent (Pistoia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pistoiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pistoia: 74.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.018.6
50.3%
51.0%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.58.3
38.6%
35.1%24.9
🏀 Free throws20.112.8
63.7%
72.3%12.8
They take 58.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 78.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.3 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.520.1
52.2%
51.0%40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.29.4
33.3%
35.1%28.2
🏀 Free throws14.110.3
73.0%
72.3%10.3
They take 66.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Jan 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pistoia
LLLLWWWLLL
Varese
WWLWWWWWWW
#16
League position
#7
-15.7
Net rating
+11.7
104.2
Offensive rating
109.8
119.9
Defensive rating
98.1
53.1%
Effective FG%
51.3%
56.7%
Opp. effective FG%
49.1%
20.3%
Turnover %
15.3%
33.7%
Off. rebound %
32.9%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.21
38.6%
3-point %
33.3%
52.0%
Assist %
57.6%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence104.2 · 109.8Defence119.9 · 98.1Shooting53.1% · 51.3%3-point %38.6% · 33.3%Ball care20.3% · 15.3%Off. rebounds33.7% · 32.9%Free throws0.34 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)30% · 90%
■ Pistoia   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Pistoia wins
5
Varese wins
DateGameScore
04/03/18Pistoia v Varese74-65
29/10/17Varese v Pistoia81-73
27/02/17Varese v Pistoia75-70
30/10/16Pistoia v Varese97-64
03/04/16Varese v Pistoia91-78
13/12/15Pistoia v Varese67-65
03/05/15Pistoia v Varese87-103
04/01/15Varese v Pistoia67-71
23/03/14Varese v Pistoia84-73
08/12/13Pistoia v Varese89-76
Pistoialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/12/18ACantu79-100
26/12/18HTrento70-78
23/12/18ATorino80-86
16/12/18HVirtus Bologna71-81
09/12/18HBrescia73-70
24/11/18AReggiana84-82
18/11/18ASassari113-111
11/11/18HCremona73-90
04/11/18ATrieste79-96
28/10/18HBrindisi74-90
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/12/18APesaro98-78
25/12/18HCantu89-71
23/12/18AOlimpia Milano67-72
19/12/18ASassari90-87
16/12/18HTorino77-60
12/12/18HAEK Larnaca109-74
09/12/18AVenezia66-61
25/11/18HBrindisi85-67
21/11/18HAlba Fehervar91-66
18/11/18ACremona82-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pistoia
Lega A 2018-19
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL23%
HomeLLWLL17%
AwayLWWLL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %23%17%29%
Points / game78.871.785.0
Allowed / game90.184.395.0
Point differential-11.2-12.7-10.0
Avg total168.9156.0180.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Varese
Lega A 2018-19
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW69%
HomeWLWWW86%
AwayLWWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %69%86%50%
Points / game78.783.173.5
Allowed / game72.873.172.5
Point differential+5.8+10.0+1.0
Avg total151.5156.3146.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%57%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)50% (2)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olimpia Milano1413193%91.680.2+11.4
2 Venezia1410471%82.070.6+11.4
3 Avellino1410471%83.581.9+1.6
4 Varese139469%78.772.8+5.8
5 Cremona149564%88.283.8+4.4
6 Sassari147750%89.183.5+5.6
7 Trieste147750%85.883.6+2.1
8 Brindisi147750%78.376.3+2.0
9 Virtus Bologna147750%81.182.8-1.6
10 Trento146843%76.481.1-4.8
11 Brescia145936%78.480.4-2.0
12 Cantu145936%82.688.6-6.1
13 Reggiana134931%77.582.8-5.3
14 Pesaro134931%82.091.2-9.2
15 Torino1441029%80.586.0-5.5
16 Pistoia1331023%78.890.1-11.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pistoia2313161971
Varese1718161465
← all games of the day
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