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Arkansas State vs UALR Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 06 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Scheduled
Position#228
Record2-2
FormLWLLW
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game79.5
vs
Position#318
Record1-3
FormLLLLW
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game85.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Arkansas State v UALR
06 Dec 2026
ARKA v UALR
upcoming
12 Nov 2024
ARKA80
UALR63
22 Dec 2022
ARKA77
UALR75
12 Feb 2021
ARKA73
UALR62
22 Feb 2020
ARKA78
UALR81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arkansas State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
UALR win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Alabama
#120
L
88-92 OT
88
92
-4
H14/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
79-62
79
62
+17
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
102-94
102
94
+8
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
89-84
89
84
+5
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
81-58
81
58
+23
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
77-80
77
80
-3
H06/03
NCAA
Toledo
#262
W
71-70
71
70
+1
H03/11
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
86-101
86
101
-15
A07/11
NCAA
UT Martin
#198
L
65-82
65
82
-17
H11/11
NCAA
Dillard
#430
W
99-65
99
65
+34
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
41-32
42-51
36-33
43-29
56-49
46-45
53-44
36-40
37-22
44-36
34-42
43-38
36-35
35-35
34-51
52-50
34-54
31-28
48-33
51-32
162.5Avg total
83.7Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)80.279.5159.8+0.850%
Season at home (3)78.372.3150.7+6.067%
Season away (1)86.0101.0187.0-15.00%
Last 10 (10)83.778.8162.5+4.960%
Last 5 (5)79.679.6159.2+0.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)78.787.7166.3-9.033%
vs Similar (10)81.675.8157.4+5.860%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)82.875.2158.0+7.667%
This opponent (UALR) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UALRUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eastern Illinois
#285
L
72-78
72
78
-6
A14/02
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
67-65
67
65
+2
H20/02
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#110
L
65-70
65
70
-5
H21/02
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
L
70-76
70
76
-6
H27/02
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
W
89-70
89
70
+19
H28/02
NCAA
Lindenwood
#162
L
62-72
62
72
-10
A05/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#155
L
72-82
72
82
-10
A03/11
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#296
L
79-83
79
83
-4
H08/11
NCAA
New Mexico
#93
L
69-94
69
94
-25
A11/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
84-83 OT
84
83
+1
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
30-34
42-44
28-32
39-33
32-30
33-40
24-37
46-39
51-31
38-39
21-35
41-37
33-37
39-45
39-46
40-37
34-47
35-47
35-40
35-30
150.2Avg total
72.9Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)76.085.5161.5-9.525%
Season at home (2)81.583.0164.5-1.550%
Season away (2)70.588.0158.5-17.50%
Last 10 (10)72.977.3150.2-4.430%
Last 5 (5)73.282.8156.0-9.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)66.676.3142.9-9.616%
vs Similar (7)78.671.6150.1+7.071%
vs Weaker (3)80.773.3154.0+7.367%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +1.4+1.41st half: -4.2-4.22nd half2nd half: +3.9+3.92nd half: -0.3-0.3
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +1.4+1.41st half: -4.2-4.22nd half2nd half: +3.9+3.92nd half: -0.3-0.3
Arkansas StateUALR
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Alabama
#120
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H14/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
56-49
56
49
+7
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
53-44
53
44
+9
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H06/03
NCAA
Toledo
#262
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H03/11
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
34-51
34
51
-17
A07/11
NCAA
UT Martin
#198
L
34-54
34
54
-20
H11/11
NCAA
Dillard
#430
W
48-33
48
33
+15
H15/11
NCAA
80.4Avg total
40.9Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.735.375.1+4.470%-
Last 30 at home (18)40.734.174.7+6.672%-
Last 30 away (12)38.337.275.6+1.167%-
Last 10 (10)40.939.580.4+1.470%-
Last 5 (5)37.243.080.2-5.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)35.746.782.3-11.033%-
vs Similar (10)39.631.771.3+7.980%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)39.336.375.7+3.067%-
This opponent (UALR) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UALRLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eastern Illinois
#285
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A14/02
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
L
28-32
28
32
-4
H20/02
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#110
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H21/02
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
L
24-37
24
37
-13
H27/02
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
W
51-31
51
31
+20
H28/02
NCAA
Lindenwood
#162
L
21-35
21
35
-14
A05/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#155
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A03/11
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#296
L
39-46
39
46
-7
H08/11
NCAA
New Mexico
#93
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A11/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H15/11
NCAA
69.6Avg total
32.7Scored
36.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.136.468.5-4.327%-
Last 30 at home (14)34.436.170.6-1.729%-
Last 30 away (16)30.136.666.6-6.525%-
Last 10 (10)32.736.969.6-4.220%-
Last 5 (5)32.441.073.4-8.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)29.236.565.7-7.321%-
vs Similar (7)34.435.169.6-0.714%-
vs Weaker (3)41.337.078.3+4.367%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Arkansas State wins
3
UALR wins
DateGameScore
07/12/25UALR v Arkansas State78-90
13/11/24Arkansas State v UALR80-63
02/12/23UALR v Arkansas State77-66
22/12/22Arkansas State v UALR77-75
13/02/21UALR v Arkansas State65-67
13/02/21Arkansas State v UALR73-62
22/02/20Arkansas State v UALR78-81
08/02/20UALR v Arkansas State90-87
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HDillard99-65
11/11/26HUT Martin65-82
07/11/26AAlabama86-101
03/11/26HToledo71-70
06/03/26HGeorgia Southern77-80
28/02/26HLouisiana Lafayette81-58
25/02/26HSouthern Miss89-84
21/02/26ALouisiana Monroe102-94
20/02/26ALouisiana Lafayette79-62
14/02/26HSouth Alabama88-92 OT
UALRlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HNorthwestern St.84-83 OT
11/11/26ANew Mexico69-94
08/11/26HSE Louisiana79-83
03/11/26AVCU Rams72-82
05/03/26ALindenwood62-72
28/02/26HSouthern Indiana89-70
27/02/26HMorehead State70-76
21/02/26HSoutheast Missouri State65-70
20/02/26HUT Martin67-65
14/02/26AEastern Illinois72-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arkansas State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLW50%
HomeWLW67%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%67%0%
Points / game80.278.386.0
Allowed / game79.572.3101.0
Point differential+0.8+6.0-15.0
Avg total159.8150.7187.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
UALR
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLW25%
HomeLW50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game76.081.570.5
Allowed / game85.583.088.0
Point differential-9.5-1.5-17.5
Avg total161.5164.5158.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %25%50%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas State440100%89.862.8+27.0
2 Old Dominion550100%77.058.4+18.6
3 Appalachian State42250%69.060.2+8.8
4 Southern Miss42250%72.070.8+1.2
5 Arkansas State42250%80.279.5+0.8
6 Coastal Carolina42250%72.573.5-1.0
7 South Alabama52340%74.676.0-1.4
8 Louisiana Lafayette31233%59.060.3-1.3
9 James Madison31233%76.078.7-2.7
10 Georgia State41325%85.877.2+8.5
11 Marshall41325%78.276.0+2.2
12 Georgia Southern41325%77.882.8-5.0
13 Troy41325%66.078.0-12.0
14 Louisiana Monroe61517%75.087.7-12.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Ohio Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tennessee State42250%98.077.8+20.2
2 UT Martin42250%85.074.2+10.8
3 Southeast Missouri State42250%79.877.5+2.2
4 Tennessee Tech42250%92.090.0+2.0
5 Morehead State42250%77.081.2-4.2
6 Lindenwood52340%82.069.8+12.2
7 Siu Edwardsville52340%71.672.8-1.2
8 Southern Indiana41325%78.066.5+11.5
9 Western Illinois41325%74.573.2+1.2
10 UALR41325%76.085.5-9.5
11 Eastern Illinois41325%69.080.0-11.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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