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Atyrau vs Astana Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 16 May 2026
Tip-off: 12:00
Final 79-78
22-18 23-23 12-24 22-13
Position#4
Record18-19
FormWWLWL
Points / game81.9
Allowed / game81.5
Atyrau 🏆
Kazakhstan
vs
Position#1
Record30-5
FormWLWLW
Points / game87.9
Allowed / game67.4
KazakhstanNational LeagueNational League - Semi-finals
Other2025-26
Meetings · Atyrau v Astana
16 May 2026
ATYR79
AST78
15 May 2026
ATYR83
AST88
21 Jan 2026
ATYR68
AST97
20 Jan 2026
ATYR50
AST79
19 Oct 2025
ATYR64
AST99
18 Oct 2025
ATYR61
AST87
06 May 2023
ATYR52
AST58
09 Apr 2023
ATYR68
AST80
08 Apr 2023
ATYR62
AST67
10 May 2022
ATYR64
AST70
27 Sep 2021
ATYR65
AST76
26 Sep 2021
ATYR50
AST81
12 May 2021
ATYR65
AST88
30 Nov 2020
ATYR67
AST88
29 Nov 2020
ATYR59
AST89
30 Oct 2019
ATYR67
AST86
29 Oct 2019
ATYR67
AST102
06 Feb 2019
ATYR54
AST109
05 Feb 2019
ATYR76
AST95
17 Oct 2018
ATYR58
AST92
16 Oct 2018
ATYR62
AST85
05 May 2018
ATYR54
AST80
06 Feb 2018
ATYR66
AST72
05 Feb 2018
ATYR84
AST89
11 Feb 2017
ATYR54
AST67
10 Feb 2017
ATYR64
AST79
26 Oct 2016
ATYR70
AST75
25 Oct 2016
ATYR65
AST72
29 Apr 2016
ATYR90
AST88
28 Apr 2016
ATYR87
AST67
04 Feb 2016
ATYR104
AST87
03 Feb 2016
ATYR99
AST78
22 Apr 2014
ATYR64
AST73
15 Mar 2014
ATYR66
AST77
27 Nov 2013
ATYR74
AST100
26 Nov 2013
ATYR70
AST82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atyrau winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Astana winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AtyrauKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Almaty
#3
L
72-74
72
74
-2
A15/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
97-82
97
82
+15
H23/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
106-66
106
66
+40
H24/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
86-79
86
79
+7
H29/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
81-86
81
86
-5
H30/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
89-62
89
62
+27
H22/04
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
115-84
115
84
+31
A23/04
National League
Astana
#1
L
79-102
79
102
-23
A10/05
National League
Astana
#1
W
90-76
90
76
+14
A11/05
National League
Astana
#1
L
83-88
83
88
-5
H15/05
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-22
18-23
18-14
24-15
22-24
26-18
18-20
31-20
30-13
26-18
32-18
18-17
16-21
20-19
29-20
21-19
16-29
16-18
21-22
28-17
27-22
22-9
23-17
17-14
42-19
31-28
18-16
24-21
21-31
15-25
22-23
21-23
27-26
25-7
21-30
17-13
29-22
24-17
19-21
11-28
169.7Avg total
89.8Scored
79.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (37)81.981.5163.3+0.449%
Season at home (18)81.383.1164.4-1.744%
Season away (19)82.479.9162.3+2.453%
Last 10 (10)89.879.9169.7+9.960%
Last 5 (5)91.282.4173.6+8.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)73.385.9159.3-12.620%
vs Similar (6)80.776.8157.5+3.867%
vs Weaker (9)96.473.6170.0+22.989%
This opponent (Astana) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AstanaKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Almaty
#3
L
69-72
69
72
-3
H08/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
88-73
88
73
+15
H15/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
101-48
101
48
+53
H16/03
National League
Almaty
#3
W
82-68
82
68
+14
A21/03
National League
Almaty
#3
W
81-54
81
54
+27
A22/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
91-67
91
67
+24
H10/04
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
75-80 OT
75
80
-5
H11/04
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
102-79
102
79
+23
H10/05
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
76-90
76
90
-14
H11/05
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
88-83
88
83
+5
A15/05
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
6-12
24-23
20-18
19-19
27-22
19-23
21-19
21-9
23-21
26-5
27-9
25-13
16-17
18-15
24-15
24-21
18-17
24-14
21-15
18-8
24-13
23-23
21-14
23-17
14-16
22-17
13-22
18-12
31-21
25-15
23-22
23-21
26-27
7-25
30-21
13-17
22-29
17-24
21-19
28-11
156.7Avg total
85.3Scored
71.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)87.967.4155.3+20.586%
Season at home (18)86.371.1157.3+15.278%
Season away (17)89.663.6153.2+26.194%
Last 10 (10)85.371.4156.7+13.970%
Last 5 (5)86.479.8166.2+6.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)87.268.6155.8+18.683%
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: +4.1+4.1Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +4.7+4.7Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: +6.4+6.4
AtyrauAstana
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AtyrauLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Almaty
#3
L
30-45
30
45
-15
A15/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
48-42
48
42
+6
H23/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
56-31
56
31
+25
H24/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H29/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
32-47
32
47
-15
H30/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
49-31
49
31
+18
H22/04
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
73-47
73
47
+26
A23/04
National League
Astana
#1
L
36-56
36
56
-20
A10/05
National League
Astana
#1
W
52-33
52
33
+19
A11/05
National League
Astana
#1
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H15/05
National League
87.6Avg total
46.5Scored
41.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.741.983.6-0.147%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.340.983.1+1.450%-
Last 30 away (16)41.242.884.0-1.544%-
Last 10 (10)46.541.187.6+5.460%-
Last 5 (5)52.641.293.8+11.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)37.344.481.7-7.120%-
vs Similar (6)40.042.382.3-2.350%-
vs Weaker (9)50.337.387.7+13.089%-
This opponent (Astana) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AstanaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Almaty
#3
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H08/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H15/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
49-26
49
26
+23
H16/03
National League
Almaty
#3
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A21/03
National League
Almaty
#3
W
42-31
42
31
+11
A22/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
47-36
47
36
+11
H10/04
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H11/04
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
56-36
56
36
+20
H10/05
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
33-52
33
52
-19
H11/05
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A15/05
National League
79.1Avg total
41.2Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.834.978.7+8.877%-
Last 30 at home (17)44.135.479.5+8.776%-
Last 30 away (13)43.334.377.6+9.077%-
Last 10 (10)41.237.979.1+3.370%-
Last 5 (5)42.242.084.2+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)43.834.978.7+8.877%-
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Atyrautheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Atyrau: 89.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.4 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.4 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.421.5
51.9%
50.5%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.611.8
38.6%
30.4%35.4
🏀 Free throws14.911.4
76.5%
69.6%11.4
They take 72.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Astanatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Astana: 85.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.119.0
54.1%
50.5%38.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.011.0
32.4%
30.4%33.0
🏀 Free throws21.114.3
67.8%
69.6%14.3
They take 69.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Atyrau
LWLWWLWWWL
Astana
WLWLWWWWWL
#4
League position
#1
+12.6
Net rating
+18.3
114.7
Offensive rating
112.0
102.1
Defensive rating
93.8
54.4%
Effective FG%
51.4%
47.8%
Opp. effective FG%
43.4%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.31
38.6%
3-point %
32.4%
65.5%
Assist %
71.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence114.7 · 112.0Defence102.1 · 93.8Shooting54.4% · 51.4%3-point %38.6% · 32.4%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.21 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Atyrau   ■ Astana
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Atyrau wins
9
Astana wins
DateGameScore
15/05/26Atyrau v Astana83-88
11/05/26Astana v Atyrau76-90
10/05/26Astana v Atyrau102-79
26/02/26Astana v Atyrau79-72
25/02/26Astana v Atyrau85-69
21/01/26Atyrau v Astana68-97
20/01/26Atyrau v Astana50-79
26/11/25Astana v Atyrau96-63
25/11/25Astana v Atyrau78-61
19/10/25Atyrau v Astana64-99
Atyraulast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/05/26HAstana83-88
11/05/26AAstana90-76
10/05/26AAstana79-102
23/04/26ATobol Kostanay115-84
22/04/26HTobol Kostanay89-62
30/03/26HKaspiy Aktau81-86
29/03/26HKaspiy Aktau86-79
24/03/26HTobol Kostanay106-66
23/03/26HTobol Kostanay97-82
15/03/26AAlmaty72-74
Astanalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/05/26AAtyrau88-83
11/05/26HAtyrau76-90
10/05/26HAtyrau102-79
11/04/26HKaspiy Aktau75-80 OT
10/04/26HKaspiy Aktau91-67
22/03/26AAlmaty81-54
21/03/26AAlmaty82-68
16/03/26HTobol Kostanay101-48
15/03/26HTobol Kostanay88-73
08/03/26HAlmaty69-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Atyrau
National League 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL49%
HomeWWLWL44%
AwayLLWLW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games371819
Win %49%44%53%
Points / game81.981.382.4
Allowed / game81.583.179.9
Point differential+0.4-1.7+2.4
Avg total163.3164.4162.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%33%37%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)25% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %3%6%0%
Astana
National League 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW86%
HomeWWLWL78%
AwayWLWWW94%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games351817
Win %86%78%94%
Points / game87.986.389.6
Allowed / game67.471.163.6
Point differential+20.5+15.2+26.1
Avg total155.3157.3153.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+80%72%88%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %3%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Astana3530586%87.967.4+20.5
2 Kaspiy Aktau34201459%81.676.2+5.3
3 Almaty36181850%81.778.7+3.0
4 Atyrau37181949%81.981.5+0.4
5 Tobol Kostanay343319%68.296.4-28.1
6 Turan2020%60.592.0-31.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Atyrau2223122279
Astana1823241378
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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