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Basquet Girona vs Real Madrid Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 21 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 18:00
Scheduled
Position#10
Record3-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game93.0
Allowed / game97.4
vs
Position#1
Record5-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game112.8
Allowed / game89.4
SpainACBRound 25· Pavello Fontajau
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Basquet Girona v Real Madrid
21 Mar 2027
GIR v MAD
upcoming
28 Mar 2026
GIR93
MAD95
27 Apr 2025
GIR71
MAD79
08 Oct 2023
GIR74
MAD93
28 Sep 2022
GIR88
MAD94
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Basquet Girona win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Basquet Girona
4.8out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Around their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 87.5
98.0▲ 10.5
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 87.9
80.4▼ 7.5
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 58%
67%▲ 9%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 17.5
20.4▲ 2.9
🔥 Form · Real Madrid
6.1out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Above their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 96.0
110.6▲ 14.6
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 88.4
86.2▼ 2.2
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 62%
67%▲ 5%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 20.3
24.0▲ 3.7
Basquet GironaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Joventut Badalona
#6
W
82-77
82
77
+5
H29/05
ACB
Murcia
#14
W
84-77
84
77
+7
H27/09
ACB
Baskonia
#3
L
78-118
78
118
-40
A04/10
ACB
Dinamo Bucharest
#17
W
87-75
87
75
+12
H06/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Breogan
#6
L
92-115
92
115
-23
A10/10
ACB
Oostende
#28
W
91-76
91
76
+15
A13/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Leyma Coruna
#17
W
110-90
110
90
+20
H18/10
ACB
Zielona Gora
#33
W
109-68
109
68
+41
H20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Joventut Badalona
#13
W
101-87
101
87
+14
H25/10
ACB
Szolnoki Olaj
#31
L
79-81
79
81
-2
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-18
23-24
26-10
12-25
22-16
14-17
16-19
32-25
26-20
16-34
19-32
17-32
23-19
24-25
18-19
22-12
22-30
19-31
23-23
28-31
25-15
17-19
26-18
23-24
28-23
25-25
21-28
36-14
30-16
27-13
26-20
26-19
17-27
28-14
27-22
29-24
26-17
22-17
19-24
12-23
177.7Avg total
91.3Scored
86.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)93.097.4190.4-4.460%
Season at home (3)98.384.7183.0+13.7100%
Season away (2)85.0116.5201.5-31.50%
Last 10 (10)91.386.4177.7+4.970%
Last 5 (5)98.080.4178.4+17.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)84.992.7177.6-7.827%
vs Similar (13)85.185.8170.8-0.746%
vs Weaker (6)94.579.0173.5+15.583%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Obradoiro CAB
#11
W
114-107 OT
114
107
+7
A04/10
ACB
Partizan
#12
W
86-76
86
76
+10
H08/10
Euroleague
Manresa
#18
W
120-83
120
83
+37
H11/10
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
98-89
98
89
+9
A13/10
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
111-92
111
92
+19
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#9
W
119-84
119
84
+35
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
113-99
113
99
+14
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#16
W
122-86
122
86
+36
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
104-86
104
86
+18
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
95-76
95
76
+19
H29/10
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-22
32-21
21-26
24-30
27-19
26-18
18-20
15-19
34-22
28-16
24-18
34-27
21-25
32-15
31-27
14-22
27-25
34-23
16-23
34-21
36-13
26-22
27-22
30-27
23-30
28-22
30-21
32-26
31-21
23-19
27-23
41-23
30-19
26-27
26-23
22-17
22-24
25-18
23-13
25-21
196.0Avg total
108.2Scored
87.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)112.889.4202.2+23.4100%
Season at home (3)109.384.7194.0+24.7100%
Season away (2)118.096.5214.5+21.5100%
Last 10 (10)108.287.8196.0+20.4100%
Last 5 (5)110.686.2196.8+24.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)96.082.0178.0+14.0100%
vs Similar (9)94.089.9183.9+4.156%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)99.589.8189.3+9.660%
This opponent (Basquet Girona) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: +5.3+5.3Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: +7.9+7.9Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: +0.8+0.8Q4: +3.8+3.8
Basquet GironaReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Basquet GironaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Joventut Badalona
#6
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H29/05
ACB
Murcia
#14
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H27/09
ACB
Baskonia
#3
L
42-54
42
54
-12
A04/10
ACB
Dinamo Bucharest
#17
W
47-44
47
44
+3
H06/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Breogan
#6
L
41-61
41
61
-20
A10/10
ACB
Oostende
#28
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A13/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Leyma Coruna
#17
W
53-48
53
48
+5
H18/10
ACB
Zielona Gora
#33
W
57-29
57
29
+28
H20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Joventut Badalona
#13
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H25/10
ACB
Szolnoki Olaj
#31
W
48-34
48
34
+14
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
87.5Avg total
45.5Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.841.584.3+1.353%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.038.482.4+5.673%-
Last 30 away (15)41.644.686.2-3.033%-
Last 10 (10)45.542.087.5+3.580%-
Last 5 (5)49.037.286.2+11.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)40.544.685.1-4.236%-
vs Similar (13)42.340.282.5+2.254%-
vs Weaker (6)48.238.786.8+9.583%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Obradoiro CAB
#11
W
54-43
54
43
+11
A04/10
ACB
Partizan
#12
W
53-37
53
37
+16
H08/10
Euroleague
Manresa
#18
W
62-38
62
38
+24
H11/10
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
53-40
53
40
+13
A13/10
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#9
W
62-35
62
35
+27
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#16
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H29/10
Euroleague
97.4Avg total
55.3Scored
42.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.944.593.4+4.570%-
Last 30 at home (14)49.743.292.9+6.571%-
Last 30 away (16)48.245.693.8+2.769%-
Last 10 (10)55.342.197.4+13.290%-
Last 5 (5)54.043.097.0+11.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)45.041.086.0+4.0100%-
vs Similar (9)46.146.192.2+0.056%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)50.443.994.3+6.575%-
This opponent (Basquet Girona) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Basquet Gironatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Basquet Girona: 89.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.5 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.220.7
55.6%
55.6%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.511.9
37.8%
36.2%35.7
🏀 Free throws18.012.6
70.0%
75.7%12.6
They take 68.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 108.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀37%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.9 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.9 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.5 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.620.3
57.0%
55.6%40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.615.3
43.0%
36.2%45.9
🏀 Free throws26.621.9
82.3%
75.7%21.9
They take 71.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Basquet Girona
LWWWWLWLWW
Real Madrid
WWWWWWWWWW
#10
League position
#1
+4.8
Net rating
+22.2
100.9
Offensive rating
114.9
96.0
Defensive rating
92.7
56.1%
Effective FG%
60.7%
55.1%
Opp. effective FG%
50.9%
15.9%
Turnover %
13.2%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.37
37.8%
3-point %
43.0%
55.8%
Assist %
64.9%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
100%

Profile

Offence100.9 · 114.9Defence96.0 · 92.7Shooting56.1% · 60.7%3-point %37.8% · 43.0%Ball care15.9% · 13.2%Free throws0.26 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)70% · 100%
■ Basquet Girona   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Basquet Girona wins
8
Real Madrid wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26ASzolnoki Olaj79-81
25/10/26HJoventut Badalona101-87
20/10/26HZielona Gora109-68
18/10/26HLeyma Coruna110-90
13/10/26AOostende91-76
10/10/26ABreogan92-115
06/10/26HDinamo Bucharest87-75
04/10/26ABaskonia78-118
27/09/26HMurcia84-77
29/05/26HJoventut Badalona82-77
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/26HFenerbahce95-76
27/10/26ABaskonia104-86
25/10/26AForca Lleida122-86
22/10/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv113-99
18/10/26HBilbao119-84
15/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne111-92
13/10/26AOlimpia Milano98-89
11/10/26HManresa120-83
08/10/26HPartizan86-76
04/10/26AObradoiro CAB114-107 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Basquet Girona
ACB 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW60%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %60%100%0%
Points / game93.098.385.0
Allowed / game97.484.7116.5
Point differential-4.4+13.7-31.5
Avg total190.4183.0201.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Real Madrid
ACB 2026-27
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game112.8109.3118.0
Allowed / game89.484.796.5
Point differential+23.4+24.7+21.5
Avg total202.2194.0214.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%67%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %20%0%50%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Real Madrid550100%112.889.4+23.4
2 Tenerife54180%87.677.2+10.4
3 Baskonia53260%92.282.8+9.4
4 Valencia53260%96.688.8+7.8
5 Unicaja53260%88.283.0+5.2
6 Breogan53260%103.6100.4+3.2
7 Barcelona53260%98.096.2+1.8
8 Basket Zaragoza53260%89.089.0+0.0
9 Bilbao53260%95.295.6-0.4
10 Basquet Girona53260%93.097.4-4.4
11 Obradoiro CAB53260%88.693.2-4.6
12 San Pablo Burgos52340%89.887.0+2.8
13 Joventut Badalona52340%94.693.6+1.0
14 Murcia52340%87.093.0-6.0
15 MoraBanc Andorra51420%85.693.6-8.0
16 Forca Lleida51420%91.8103.2-11.4
17 Leyma Coruna51420%89.4102.0-12.6
18 Manresa5050%84.6102.2-17.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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