Boston Celtics host Dallas Mavericks on 15 November 2026 in the NBA, with the Celtics the clear favourite as Pythia rates them 86% to win, driven by a 10-2 record, 114.2 points per game and 103.1 allowed, and a perfect 5-0 home slate with 120.0 points per game; the Mavericks sit 7-6 overall, 113.5 points per game and 113.3 allowed, and are 2-4 on the road with 111.0 points per game and 119.0 allowed, having won three of their last five games. The Celtics have dominated the series 8-2, most recently beating the Mavericks 120-100 on 6 March 2026, while Dallas's recent outings include a 117-127 loss to Cleveland, a 94-133 defeat to Minnesota and a 125-122 win over Indiana. Pythia projects a 119-105 score, 224 total points, a 13.5-point spread with a 54% chance the Celtics cover, a 217.5-point total with a 63% over probability, and a 3% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Boston Celtics win
86.3%fair 1.16
Best odds1.14
Implied84.4%
Edge+1.9pp
Dallas Mavericks win
13.7%fair 7.29
Best odds6.50
Implied15.6%
Edge-1.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 06:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 224 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 220-224 (11%). The market's main line is 219.5.
Over/Under 214.5
Over 214.5
69.6%
@ 1.70+12.9pp
Under 214.5
30.4%
@ 2.42-12.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.70
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
WilliamHill
1.57
Under
Betfair
2.42
Bet365
2.40
1xBet
2.36
WilliamHill
2.30
Marathon Be
2.25
Over/Under 219.5 · main line
Over 219.5
59.3%
@ 1.96+9.1pp
Under 219.5
40.7%
@ 1.94-9.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Be
1.91
Betfair
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Bet365
1.88
Over/Under 224.5
Over 224.5
48.4%
@ 2.46+9.4pp
Under 224.5
51.6%
@ 1.60-9.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.46
Bet365
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
WilliamHill
2.38
Betfair
2.34
Under
Betfair
1.60
Marathon Be
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Betano
1.53
WilliamHill
1.53
📊 3. Team Totals
Boston Celtics total 112.5
Over 112.5
73.0%
@ 1.59+11.8pp
Under 112.5
27.0%
@ 2.40-11.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.59
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.22
Boston Celtics total 116.5 · main line
Over 116.5
60.2%
@ 1.93+10.3pp
Under 116.5
39.8%
@ 1.94-10.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
1xBet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
Boston Celtics total 120.5
Over 120.5
46.1%
@ 2.62+9.6pp
Under 120.5
53.9%
@ 1.45-9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Dallas Mavericks total 98
Over 98
71.8%
Under 98
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dallas Mavericks total 102 · main line
Over 102
58.6%
@ 1.91+6.8pp
Under 102
41.4%
@ 2.00-6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Be
1.72
Under
Marathon Be
2.00
1xBet
1.89
Dallas Mavericks total 106
Over 106
44.3%
Under 106
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Boston Celtics's side (positive = Boston Celtics win). Pythia's expected margin is +14.7; Boston Celtics win by 1+ in 80% of simulations.
Spread Boston Celtics -16
BOS -16
45.8%
@ 2.44+6.2pp
DAL +16
54.2%
@ 1.65-6.2pp
Best 5 market prices
BOS
Pinnacle
2.44
Marathon Be
2.29
1xBet
2.16
Bet365
2.12
DAL
1xBet
1.65
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathon Be
1.55
Spread Boston Celtics -13 · main line
BOS -13
55.3%
@ 1.91+4.6pp
DAL +13
44.7%
@ 2.02-4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
BOS
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.80
DAL
1xBet
2.02
SBO
2.02
Bet365
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.88
Spread Boston Celtics -10
BOS -10
64.6%
@ 1.56+4.2pp
DAL +10
35.4%
@ 2.38-4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
BOS
Marathon Be
1.56
Bet365
1.54
1xBet
1.49
DAL
1xBet
2.38
Bet365
2.35
Marathon Be
2.21
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Boston CelticsDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
33-21
33
21
+12
H26/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
L
26-31
26
31
-5
H27/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
44-25
44
25
+19
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
24-23
24
23
+1
A01/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
D
29-29
29
29
+0
A03/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
28-14
28
14
+14
H05/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
40-20
40
20
+20
A07/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
L
25-27
25
27
-2
A09/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
W
30-23
30
23
+7
A11/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
L
29-38
29
38
-9
A12/11
NBA
55.9Avg total
30.8Scored
25.1Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 56.5
Last 30 (30)
29.6
25.6
55.3
+4.0
63%
30%
Last 30 at home (15)
27.7
25.7
53.4
+2.1
47%
20%
Last 30 away (15)
31.5
25.6
57.1
+5.9
80%
40%
Last 10 (10)
30.8
25.1
55.9
+5.7
60%
50%
Last 5 (5)
30.4
24.4
54.8
+6.0
60%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger
no games
vs Similar (5)
25.0
27.6
52.6
-2.6
40%
20%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)
30.6
25.2
55.8
+5.3
68%
32%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
BOS win
73.8%
@ 1.36+3.7pp
DAL win
26.2%
@ 3.20-3.7pp
2nd half Spread Boston Celtics -5 · main line
BOS -5
56.6%
@ 1.87+6.6pp
DAL +5
43.4%
@ 1.87-6.6pp
2nd half Over/Under 105 · main line
Over
67.9%
@ 1.87+17.6pp
Under
32.1%
@ 1.89-17.6pp
Boston Celtics 2nd half total 55 · main line
Over
68.1%
@ 1.87+17.1pp
Under
31.9%
@ 1.95-17.1pp
Dallas Mavericks 2nd half total 51 · main line
Over
55.0%
@ 1.90+5.8pp
Under
45.0%
@ 1.84-5.8pp
2nd half Over/Under 103.5
Over
71.8%
@ 1.83+20.7pp
Under
28.2%
@ 2.05-20.7pp
2nd half Over/Under 106.5
Over
62.7%
@ 1.85+12.2pp
Under
37.3%
@ 1.89-12.2pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
BOS
71.7%
@ 1.44+6.5pp
Draw
2.9%
@ 23.00-1.6pp
DAL
25.4%
@ 3.20-4.9pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
44.1
23.6
53.5%
54.0%
47.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
43.2
15.0
34.7%
35.1%
45.0
🏀Free throws
24.1
18.1
75.1%
77.3%
18.1
They take 87.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
52.5
30.1
57.3%
54.0%
60.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
36.4
13.5
37.1%
35.1%
40.5
🏀Free throws
23.8
18.6
78.2%
77.3%
18.6
They take 88.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Boston Celtics: 106.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.6 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
45.3
23.3
51.4%
54.0%
46.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
38.9
13.6
35.0%
35.1%
40.8
🏀Free throws
23.2
18.7
80.6%
77.3%
18.7
Their opponents take 84.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
54.3
30.0
55.2%
54.0%
60.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
36.6
11.4
31.1%
35.1%
34.2
🏀Free throws
25.5
18.8
73.7%
77.3%
18.8
Their opponents take 90.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
45.4
24.9
55.0%
54.0%
49.9
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
42.2
15.4
36.5%
35.1%
46.2
🏀Free throws
21.7
17.5
80.8%
77.3%
17.5
They take 87.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 42.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
56.3
29.7
52.7%
54.0%
59.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
34.3
12.3
35.7%
35.1%
36.8
🏀Free throws
25.0
19.7
79.0%
77.3%
19.7
They take 90.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Boston Celtics: 106.2 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.5 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
47.6
24.7
51.9%
54.0%
49.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
38.7
13.5
34.9%
35.1%
40.5
🏀Free throws
20.9
16.2
77.5%
77.3%
16.2
Their opponents take 86.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
54.8
31.6
57.6%
54.0%
63.1
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
37.3
13.4
35.9%
35.1%
40.2
🏀Free throws
23.8
17.8
74.9%
77.3%
17.8
Their opponents take 92.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Boston Celtics
WWWWWLWWWW
Dallas Mavericks
LLWWWLLWWW
#3
League position
#14
+4.2
Net rating
+6.0
109.8
Offensive rating
112.7
105.6
Defensive rating
106.8
52.8%
Effective FG%
56.6%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
13.4%
Turnover %
15.4%
24.9%
Off. rebound %
31.0%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.27
34.7%
3-point %
37.1%
65.3%
Assist %
63.1%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
60%
Profile
■ Boston Celtics■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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