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Brasilia vs Pato Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 14:15
Projected 85-70
Projected total 155.8
Scheduled
Position#8
Record4-4
FormLLLWL
Points / game80.6
Allowed / game79.8
Vs
90%
■ BRAS 90%■ PATO 10%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.0/10
Around normal
5.7/10
Above normal
Position#15
Record2-6
FormLLLWL
Points / game72.6
Allowed / game81.5
BrazilNBB· Arena BRB Nilson Nelson
Other2026-27
Meetings · Brasilia v Pato
22 Nov 2026
BRAS v PATO
upcoming
23 Dec 2025
BRAS84
PATO69
16 Dec 2024
BRAS98
PATO94
06 Jan 2024
BRAS65
PATO77
03 Jan 2023
BRAS79
PATO66
21 Nov 2021
BRAS53
PATO70
20 Dec 2020
BRAS98
PATO104
13 Jan 2020
BRAS76
PATO73
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Brasilia host Pato in the NBB. Pythia makes Brasilia the favourite at 90% and projects 85-70, about 156 points in all. Overtime chance: 2%. Brasilia are 4-4 this season (80.6 scored, 79.8 allowed a game), form LLLWL; Pato are 2-6 this season (72.6 scored, 81.5 allowed a game), form LLLWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Brasilia win
90.3%fair 1.11
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pato win
9.7%fair 10.32
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BrasiliaBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBrasilia
Date
Competition
Franca
#1
W
71-69
71
69
+2
60avg 71
A26/05
NBB
Franca
#1
L
66-68
66
68
-2
53avg 71
A28/05
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#10
W
104-92
104
92
+12
109avg 71
H22/10
NBB
Paulistano
#13
W
91-73
91
73
+18
85avg 71
H24/10
NBB
Cruzeiro
#9
W
89-80
89
80
+9
23avg 71
A27/10
NBB
Minas
#1
L
61-100
61
100
-39
20avg 71
A29/10
NBB
Botafogo
#14
L
76-77
76
77
-1
no box
H02/11
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
87-91
87
91
-4
no box
H04/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
76-55
76
55
+21
no box
A07/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#7
L
61-70
61
70
-9
no box
A09/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-10
15-20
17-14
22-25
15-21
11-21
21-16
19-10
29-28
17-17
31-27
27-20
29-22
25-16
18-16
19-19
16-21
16-28
30-11
27-20
12-26
21-17
19-24
9-33
22-16
14-20
17-23
23-18
25-33
21-26
27-14
14-18
22-12
26-11
23-19
5-13
19-21
14-19
13-17
15-13
155.7Avg total
78.2Scored
77.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)80.679.8160.4+0.950%
Season at home (4)89.583.2172.8+6.250%
Season away (4)71.876.2148.0-4.550%
Last 10 (10)78.277.5155.7+0.750%
Last 5 (5)72.278.6150.8-6.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)71.478.5149.9-7.125%
vs Similar (11)83.080.9163.9+2.173%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)76.267.3143.5+8.973%
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#2
L
55-88
55
88
-33
50avg 63
A16/04
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
71-92
71
92
-21
58avg 63
A18/04
NBB
Paulistano
#13
L
74-80
74
80
-6
58avg 63
H21/10
NBB
Botafogo
#14
W
89-88
89
88
+1
36avg 63
H24/10
NBB
Minas
#1
L
65-86
65
86
-21
52avg 63
A27/10
NBB
Cruzeiro
#9
L
68-76
68
76
-8
48avg 63
A29/10
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
66-80
66
80
-14
no box
H07/11
NBB
Bauru
#11
L
78-98
78
98
-20
no box
H09/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
79-77
79
77
+2
no box
A12/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#7
L
62-67
62
67
-5
no box
A14/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-25
16-19
16-27
11-17
15-24
18-27
18-28
20-13
10-13
18-20
13-30
33-17
22-26
16-22
27-13
24-27
14-24
18-24
16-23
17-15
17-17
18-21
10-19
23-19
18-24
19-16
13-24
16-16
26-28
16-26
19-19
17-25
15-21
20-19
15-22
29-15
14-18
19-22
14-15
15-12
153.9Avg total
70.7Scored
83.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)72.681.5154.1-8.925%
Season at home (4)76.886.5163.2-9.825%
Season away (4)68.576.5145.0-8.025%
Last 10 (10)70.783.2153.9-12.520%
Last 5 (5)70.679.6150.2-9.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)69.882.7152.5-13.05%
vs Similar (8)77.176.8153.9+0.438%
vs Weaker (1)79.077.0156.0+2.0100%
This opponent (Brasilia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152
Over 152
59.1%
Under 152
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157
Over 157
46.5%
Under 157
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 162
Over 162
34.4%
Under 162
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Brasilia total 76
Over 76
83.6%
Under 76
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brasilia total 80
Over 80
71.4%
Under 80
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brasilia total 84
Over 84
55.7%
Under 84
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pato total 73
Over 73
38.9%
Under 73
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pato total 77
Over 77
24.6%
Under 77
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pato total 81
Over 81
14.0%
Under 81
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Brasilia -3
BRAS -3
86.6%
PATO +3
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
BRAS
No market prices yet.
PATO
No market prices yet.
Spread Brasilia 0
BRAS 0
90.3%
PATO 0
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
BRAS
No market prices yet.
PATO
No market prices yet.
Spread Brasilia +3
BRAS +3
93.6%
PATO -3
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
BRAS
No market prices yet.
PATO
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.4-0.4Q1: -5.7-5.7Q2Q2: -1.5-1.5Q2: -3.8-3.8Q3Q3: +3.5+3.5Q3: -5.9-5.9Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +2.9+2.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.4-0.4Q1: -5.7-5.7Q2Q2: -1.5-1.5Q2: -3.8-3.8Q3Q3: +3.5+3.5Q3: -5.9-5.9Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +2.9+2.9
BrasiliaPato
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BrasiliaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Franca
#1
W
32-30
32
30
+2
A26/05
NBB
Franca
#1
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A28/05
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#10
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H22/10
NBB
Paulistano
#13
W
54-38
54
38
+16
H24/10
NBB
Cruzeiro
#9
L
32-49
32
49
-17
A27/10
NBB
Minas
#1
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A29/10
NBB
Botafogo
#14
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H02/11
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
46-59
46
59
-13
H04/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
48-23
48
23
+25
A07/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#7
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A09/11
NBB
79.1Avg total
38.6Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.138.376.4-0.247%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.639.079.6+1.653%-
Last 30 away (13)34.837.572.3-2.638%-
Last 10 (10)38.640.579.1-1.940%-
Last 5 (5)39.240.279.4-1.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)34.839.974.6-5.138%-
vs Similar (11)39.342.181.4-2.836%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)39.433.572.8+5.964%-
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#2
L
28-44
28
44
-16
A16/04
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
33-51
33
51
-18
A18/04
NBB
Paulistano
#13
L
28-33
28
33
-5
H21/10
NBB
Botafogo
#14
L
38-48
38
48
-10
H24/10
NBB
Minas
#1
L
32-48
32
48
-16
A27/10
NBB
Cruzeiro
#9
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A29/10
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H07/11
NBB
Bauru
#11
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H09/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A12/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#7
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A14/11
NBB
77.7Avg total
34.1Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.340.676.9-4.330%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.438.676.1-1.238%-
Last 30 away (14)34.942.977.8-7.921%-
Last 10 (10)34.143.677.7-9.50%-
Last 5 (5)36.442.478.8-6.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)34.541.976.4-7.314%-
vs Similar (8)41.037.478.4+3.675%-
vs Weaker (1)35.040.075.0-5.00%-
This opponent (Brasilia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Brasiliatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brasilia: 67.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.215.7
50.3%
49.8%31.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.08.9
33.0%
31.6%26.7
🏀 Free throws13.39.8
73.7%
71.3%9.8
They take 58.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 61.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws7.1 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.015.6
47.3%
49.8%31.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.67.6
25.7%
31.6%22.8
🏀 Free throws11.37.1
62.8%
71.3%7.1
They take 62.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Brasilia
LWLLLWWWLW
Pato
LWLLLLWLLL
#8
League position
#15
-4.5
Net rating
-23.7
87.1
Offensive rating
70.9
91.6
Defensive rating
94.5
49.9%
Effective FG%
43.1%
49.2%
Opp. effective FG%
51.3%
15.8%
Turnover %
20.2%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.18
33.0%
3-point %
25.7%
63.4%
Assist %
75.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence87.1 · 70.9Defence91.6 · 94.5Shooting49.9% · 43.1%3-point %33.0% · 25.7%Ball care15.8% · 20.2%Free throws0.23 · 0.18Form (last 10/10)50% · 20%
■ Brasilia   ■ Pato
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Brasilia wins
5
Pato wins
DateGameScore
02/04/26Pato v Brasilia58-67
23/12/25Brasilia v Pato84-69
14/03/25Pato v Brasilia98-80
16/12/24Brasilia v Pato98-94
06/01/24Brasilia v Pato65-77
03/11/23Pato v Brasilia78-80
07/04/23Pato v Brasilia91-64
03/01/23Brasilia v Pato79-66
17/02/22Pato v Brasilia77-75
21/11/21Brasilia v Pato53-70
Brasilialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/11/26AUniao Corinthians61-70
07/11/26ACaxias do Sul76-55
04/11/26HFlamengo87-91
02/11/26HBotafogo76-77
29/10/26AMinas61-100
27/10/26ACruzeiro89-80
24/10/26HPaulistano91-73
22/10/26HCorinthians Paulista104-92
28/05/26AFranca66-68
26/05/26AFranca71-69
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AUniao Corinthians62-67
12/11/26ACaxias do Sul79-77
09/11/26HBauru78-98
07/11/26HFlamengo66-80
29/10/26ACruzeiro68-76
27/10/26AMinas65-86
24/10/26HBotafogo89-88
21/10/26HPaulistano74-80
18/04/26APaulistano71-92
16/04/26APinheiros55-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Brasilia
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL50%
HomeWWLL50%
AwayWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game80.689.571.8
Allowed / game79.883.276.2
Point differential+0.9+6.2-4.5
Avg total160.4172.8148.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pato
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL25%
HomeLWLL25%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %25%25%25%
Points / game72.676.868.5
Allowed / game81.586.576.5
Point differential-8.9-9.8-8.0
Avg total154.1163.2145.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas880100%85.165.4+19.8
2 Mogi76186%83.173.9+9.3
3 Pinheiros86275%85.273.1+12.1
4 Flamengo75271%80.973.4+7.4
5 Unifacisa75271%79.475.1+4.3
6 Franca85362%78.971.6+7.2
7 Uniao Corinthians74357%72.374.7-2.4
8 Brasilia84450%80.679.8+0.9
9 Cruzeiro63350%76.278.8-2.7
10 Corinthians Paulista73443%80.079.0+1.0
11 Bauru73443%76.777.7-1.0
12 Sao Jose73443%80.381.7-1.4
13 Paulistano73443%69.673.9-4.3
14 Botafogo62433%76.783.0-6.3
15 Pato82625%72.681.5-8.9
16 Osasco61517%77.886.8-9.0
17 Cearense71614%65.683.7-18.1
18 Caxias do Sul7070%64.779.6-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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