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Brasilia vs Pato Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 23 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 23:15
Final 84-69
20-18 20-18 19-8 25-25
Position#5
Record12-4
FormWWLLW
Points / game81.9
Allowed / game72.6
vs
Position#17
Record5-12
FormWWLLW
Points / game72.6
Allowed / game80.1
BrazilNBB· Arena BRB Nilson Nelson
Other2025-26
Meetings · Brasilia v Pato
22 Nov 2026
BRAS v PATO
upcoming
23 Dec 2025
BRAS84
PATO69
16 Dec 2024
BRAS98
PATO94
06 Jan 2024
BRAS65
PATO77
03 Jan 2023
BRAS79
PATO66
21 Nov 2021
BRAS53
PATO70
20 Dec 2020
BRAS98
PATO104
13 Jan 2020
BRAS76
PATO73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Brasilia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pato winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BrasiliaBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBrasilia
Date
Competition
Minas
#3
W
80-78
80
78
+2
74avg 71
H10/11
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
W
79-65
79
65
+14
66avg 71
H14/11
NBB
Botafogo
#16
W
82-70
82
70
+12
74avg 71
A18/11
NBB
Flamengo
#4
W
85-83
85
83
+2
83avg 71
A20/11
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
81-59
81
59
+22
85avg 71
A23/11
NBB
Cearense
#19
W
105-90
105
90
+15
102avg 71
H04/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
84-81
84
81
+3
73avg 71
H06/12
NBB
Sao Jose
#9
L
73-87
73
87
-14
58avg 71
A10/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
66-79
66
79
-13
59avg 71
A12/12
NBB
Mogi
#8
W
68-57
68
57
+11
65avg 71
A16/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-19
21-20
14-22
25-17
23-13
25-15
18-18
13-19
25-22
15-19
19-12
23-17
18-27
23-15
19-24
25-17
19-19
20-9
21-12
21-19
22-18
28-26
22-22
33-24
24-22
19-19
18-19
23-21
11-21
21-30
18-19
23-17
10-22
21-20
15-18
20-19
16-15
9-16
20-13
23-13
155.2Avg total
80.3Scored
74.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)81.972.6154.6+9.375%
Season at home (8)84.071.0155.0+13.088%
Season away (8)79.974.2154.1+5.662%
Last 10 (10)80.374.9155.2+5.480%
Last 5 (5)79.278.8158.0+0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)71.082.5153.5-11.50%
vs Similar (16)74.275.1149.3-0.844%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)87.674.2161.8+13.483%
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Unifacisa
#11
L
62-77
62
77
-15
36avg 67
H12/11
NBB
Cearense
#19
W
82-79
82
79
+3
75avg 67
H14/11
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
58-86
58
86
-28
49avg 67
A17/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
68-87
68
87
-19
52avg 67
A19/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#9
L
71-86
71
86
-15
57avg 67
A22/11
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
67-59
67
59
+8
55avg 67
H06/12
NBB
Rio Claro
#15
W
109-101 OT
109
101
+8
103avg 67
A09/12
NBB
Bauru
#10
L
61-69
61
69
-8
59avg 67
H15/12
NBB
Franca
#1
L
71-93
71
93
-22
57avg 67
H18/12
NBB
Osasco
#18
W
82-67
82
67
+15
77avg 67
H20/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-15
14-18
15-17
13-27
21-19
26-18
12-13
23-29
13-32
19-15
10-18
16-21
12-19
15-17
24-30
17-21
12-25
19-23
22-20
18-18
20-12
18-17
18-18
11-12
19-22
23-18
25-15
14-26
13-15
15-16
15-17
18-21
19-26
18-24
11-16
23-27
21-20
19-15
22-15
20-17
153.5Avg total
73.1Scored
80.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)72.680.1152.6-7.529%
Season at home (8)71.173.9145.0-2.838%
Season away (9)73.985.6159.4-11.722%
Last 10 (10)73.180.4153.5-7.340%
Last 5 (5)78.077.8155.8+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)70.983.5154.4-12.66%
vs Similar (11)83.978.4162.3+5.573%
vs Weaker (2)76.090.5166.5-14.50%
This opponent (Brasilia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: -3.5-3.5Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: +4.6+4.6Q4: -4.6-4.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: -3.5-3.5Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: +4.6+4.6Q4: -4.6-4.6
BrasiliaPato
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BrasiliaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minas
#3
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H10/11
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
W
48-28
48
28
+20
H14/11
NBB
Botafogo
#16
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A18/11
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A20/11
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
39-28
39
28
+11
A23/11
NBB
Cearense
#19
W
50-44
50
44
+6
H04/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H06/12
NBB
Sao Jose
#9
L
32-51
32
51
-19
A10/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A12/12
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
25-31
25
31
-6
A16/12
NBB
77.7Avg total
39.0Scored
38.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.338.778.0+0.650%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.838.579.3+2.459%-
Last 30 away (13)37.338.976.2-1.638%-
Last 10 (10)39.038.777.7+0.350%-
Last 5 (5)36.241.878.0-5.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)32.546.078.5-13.50%-
vs Similar (16)36.638.975.5-2.231%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)44.037.281.2+6.883%-
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Unifacisa
#11
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H12/11
NBB
Cearense
#19
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H14/11
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
32-47
32
47
-15
A17/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
27-36
27
36
-9
A19/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#9
L
31-48
31
48
-17
A22/11
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
38-29
38
29
+9
H06/12
NBB
Rio Claro
#15
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A09/12
NBB
Bauru
#10
L
28-31
28
31
-3
H15/12
NBB
Franca
#1
L
37-50
37
50
-13
H18/12
NBB
Osasco
#18
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H20/12
NBB
74.2Avg total
35.6Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.941.979.8-4.037%-
Last 30 at home (12)37.737.975.6-0.250%-
Last 30 away (18)38.144.682.7-6.428%-
Last 10 (10)35.638.674.2-3.050%-
Last 5 (5)37.037.074.0+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)35.441.576.9-6.224%-
vs Similar (11)40.540.681.2-0.155%-
vs Weaker (2)45.552.097.5-6.550%-
This opponent (Brasilia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Brasiliatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brasilia: 79.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.518.5
53.6%
52.2%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.38.8
28.1%
32.5%26.4
🏀 Free throws20.115.7
78.1%
72.8%15.7
They take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 72.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.915.5
45.7%
52.2%31.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.99.2
30.8%
32.5%27.6
🏀 Free throws18.713.7
73.3%
72.8%13.7
They take 63.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Brasilia
WLLWWWWWWW
Pato
WLLWWLLLWL
#5
League position
#17
+6.4
Net rating
-9.3
105.5
Offensive rating
97.2
99.1
Defensive rating
106.5
48.2%
Effective FG%
45.9%
49.9%
Opp. effective FG%
51.6%
16.5%
Turnover %
19.6%
31.1%
Off. rebound %
30.2%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.29
28.1%
3-point %
30.8%
67.4%
Assist %
56.3%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence105.5 · 97.2Defence99.1 · 106.5Shooting48.2% · 45.9%3-point %28.1% · 30.8%Ball care16.5% · 19.6%Off. rebounds31.1% · 30.2%Free throws0.31 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)80% · 40%
■ Brasilia   ■ Pato
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Brasilia wins
7
Pato wins
DateGameScore
14/03/25Pato v Brasilia98-80
16/12/24Brasilia v Pato98-94
06/01/24Brasilia v Pato65-77
03/11/23Pato v Brasilia78-80
07/04/23Pato v Brasilia91-64
03/01/23Brasilia v Pato79-66
17/02/22Pato v Brasilia77-75
21/11/21Brasilia v Pato53-70
26/01/21Pato v Brasilia98-76
20/12/20Brasilia v Pato98-104 OT
Brasilialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/12/25AMogi68-57
12/12/25ACorinthians Paulista66-79
10/12/25ASao Jose73-87
06/12/25HUnifacisa84-81
04/12/25HCearense105-90
23/11/25AVasco81-59
20/11/25AFlamengo85-83
18/11/25ABotafogo82-70
14/11/25HCruzeiro79-65
10/11/25HMinas80-78
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/12/25HOsasco82-67
18/12/25HFranca71-93
15/12/25HBauru61-69
09/12/25ARio Claro109-101 OT
06/12/25HPaulistano67-59
22/11/25ASao Jose71-86
19/11/25ACorinthians Paulista68-87
17/11/25AMogi58-86
14/11/25HCearense82-79
12/11/25HUnifacisa62-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Brasilia
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW75%
HomeLWWWW88%
AwayWWLLW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %75%88%62%
Points / game81.984.079.9
Allowed / game72.671.074.2
Point differential+9.3+13.0+5.6
Avg total154.6155.0154.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)75% (4)100% (1)
Overtime %6%0%12%
Pato
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW29%
HomeWWLLW38%
AwayLLLLW22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %29%38%22%
Points / game72.671.173.9
Allowed / game80.173.985.6
Point differential-7.5-2.8-11.7
Avg total152.6145.0159.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+6%12%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %6%0%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo1715288%87.574.3+13.2
2 Pinheiros1715288%88.174.9+13.2
3 Franca1714382%87.172.5+14.6
4 Minas1714382%85.176.6+8.4
5 Brasilia1612475%81.972.6+9.3
6 Corinthians Paulista1711665%81.877.5+4.3
7 Sao Jose1710759%79.876.9+2.8
8 Paulistano1810856%79.975.8+4.2
9 Mogi179853%77.069.0+8.0
10 Uniao Corinthians179853%78.280.1-1.9
11 Caxias do Sul179853%73.575.7-2.2
12 Bauru189950%74.175.3-1.2
13 Unifacisa178947%80.379.7+0.6
14 Pato1751229%72.680.1-7.5
15 Cruzeiro1751229%77.585.1-7.6
16 Cearense1741324%77.588.3-10.8
17 Osasco1841422%75.385.7-10.4
18 Rio Claro1841422%77.089.0-12.0
19 Botafogo1731418%71.582.9-11.4
20 Vasco1821611%67.979.2-11.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Brasilia2020192584
Pato181882569
← all games of the day
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